Congo, Democratic Republic of - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis - Moderate risk of external and overall debt distress - prudent concessional borrowing

Jul 19, 2026

Joint World Bank–IMF debt sustainability analysis for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) concludes that debt-carrying capacity remains weak under the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework. The DRC faces a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with limited space to absorb shocks and stress tests breaching most external debt thresholds, particularly for export shocks. Weak revenue mobilization is identified as a key driver. The report recommends prioritizing concessional borrowing and strengthening debt management, while improving the quality and coverage of debt reporting, especially for state-owned enterprises.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

Debt distress risk assessment

Overall and external risk ratings

Stress tests and breach of thresholds

Key determinants and vulnerabilities

Revenue mobilization

Export shock vulnerability

Policy implications

Concessional borrowing guidance

Strengthening debt management

Debt coverage and reporting framework

Public and publicly guaranteed debt definition

Residency-based classification

Contingent liability stress test structure

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Marcello Estevão, Asad Aslam (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino, Geremia Palomba (IMF) Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association and the International Monetary Fund. | | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | No | According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)’s debt-carrying capacity remains weak.1 The DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks. Weak revenue mobilization is a main determinant for the DRC’s moderate risk of debt distress despite a low stock of external debt. Most external debt thresholds are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external shocks, in particular regarding a shock to exports. Given limited buffers, prudent borrowing policies are essential by prioritizing concessional loans and strengthening debt management policies. 1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, the Central Bank of Congo (BCC), provinces, and part of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . The public debt department (Direction Générale de la Dette Publique, DGDP) under the Ministry of Finance publishes quarterly and annual reports on its website with information on domestic and external debt based on the residency criteria. The reports summarize the debt of the central government, debt of Sicomines (a joint venture between the Congolese government and Chinese investors) and Gécamines, guaranteed external debt of SOEs managed by the government, provinces (only the province of Maniema is missing, out of 26 provinces), and the BCC. Other public institutions are legally prevented from borrowing externally without approval, in addition to being unlikely to command market access without a government guarantee. However, the authorities do not receive any regular report from public institutions other than those named above. In light of this, the authorities are committed to improve quality of debt reporting, especially for SOEs, and are following up on recommendations from recent IMF technical assistance. Sicomines’ infrastructure loans have a government guarantee which can only be called after 2050. Its debt is expected to be repaid by 2027 and is collateralized by Sicomines’ earnings.2 Sicomines also contracted a loan to finance the Busanga power plant to secure its electricity supply. Data on the debt of the private sector is scarce, and the private sector is believed not to be borrowing externally. | Definition of external/domestic debt | Residency-based | | --- | --- | | Is there a material difference between the two criteria? | No | Public debt coverage | | Subsectors of the public sector Central government State and local government Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) Non-guaranteed SOE debt | Check box | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 | | X X X X X | Public debt coverage and the magnitude of the contingent liability tailored stress test | 1 | The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Default | | Used for the analysis | Reasons for deviations from the default settings | | 2 3 4 5 | Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed

FAQs

What does the analysis conclude about the DRC’s debt distress risk?

The DRC’s risk of external and overall debt distress is rated moderate. The analysis indicates some room to absorb shocks, despite overall weakness in debt-carrying capacity.

Why is the DRC assessed as moderately risky despite a low stock of external debt?

Weak revenue mobilization is identified as a main determinant. Stress tests also show vulnerability to external shocks, especially those affecting exports.

What borrowing and debt-management actions does the report recommend?

It emphasizes prudent borrowing policies, prioritizing concessional loans, and strengthening debt management policies. It also calls for improving the quality of debt reporting, particularly for state-owned enterprises.

Jul 19, 2026

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