DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO - JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS - Moderate Risk Assessment

Jul 19, 2026

The Democratic Republic of the Congo remains under a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress under the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework. Weak debt-carrying capacity is driven largely by weak revenue mobilization, while stress tests breach external debt thresholds for solvency and liquidity risks, emphasizing vulnerability to external shocks, especially negative exports shocks. Limited buffers and exposure to volatile commodity prices make prudent borrowing and stronger debt management essential, prioritizing concessional loans and enhanced reporting coverage.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

Risk of Debt Distress Assessment

Overall risk rating

External risk and shock sensitivity

Key determinants and policy implications

Debt reporting coverage and data constraints

Additional context on economic vulnerability

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Asad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA); Annalisa Fedelino and Geremia Palomba (IMF) Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Substantial space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | No | According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)’s debt-carrying capacity remains weak.1 The DRC remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with substantial space to absorb shocks. Weak revenue mobilization is a main determinant for the DRC’s moderate risk of debt distress given low external debt. External debt thresholds for both solvency and liquidity risks are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external shocks, primarily regarding a negative shock to exports. Given limited buffers and exposure to risk from volatile commodities prices, prudent borrowing policies prioritizing concessional loans, and strengthening debt management policies remain essential to debt sustainability. 1 The DSA reflects a debt carrying capacity of weak considering DRC’s Composite Indicator of 2 .23, based on the April 2023 World Economic Outlook and the latest CPIA vintage (2021) . 1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, the Central Bank of Congo (BCC), provinces, and part of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) . The public debt department (Direction Générale de la Dette Publique , DGDP) under the Ministry of Finance publishes quarterly and annual reports on its website with information on domestic and external debt based on the residency criteria. The reports summarize the debt of the central government, debt of Sicomines (a joint venture between the Congolese government and Chinese investors) and Gécamines, guaranteed external debt of SOEs managed by the government, and the BCC. Other public institutions are legally prevented from borrowing externally without approval, and | | | --- | | | | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government State and local government Other elements in the general government o/w: Social security fund o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) Non-guaranteed SOE debt X X X X X | | 1 The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt Default Used for the analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2 Other elements of the general government not captured in 1. 0 percent of GDP 2.0 Some public institutions are not reporting to the DGDP. 3 SoE's debt (guaranteed and not guaranteed by the government) 1/ 2 percent of GDP 0.5 Reflecting risks stemming from irregular data sharing with DGDP. 4 PPP 35 percent of PPP stock 0.0 5 Financial market (the default value of 5 percent of GDP is the minimum value) Total (2+3+4+5) (in percent of GDP) 5 percent of GDP 5.0 7.5 1/ The default shock of 2% of GDP will be triggered for countries whose government-guaranteed debt is not fully captured under the country’s public debt definition (1) . If it is already included in the government debt (1) and risks associated with SoE’s debt not guaranteed by the government is assessed to be negligible, a country team may reduce this to 0% . | unlikely to command market access without a government guarantee. However

FAQs

What is the overall risk of debt distress for the DRC in this analysis?

The analysis rates the overall risk of debt distress as Moderate.

Why does the DRC face a moderate risk of external debt distress?

Weak revenue mobilization is identified as a main determinant, combined with breaches of external debt thresholds in stress tests.

What policies are considered essential to support debt sustainability?

The document emphasizes prudent borrowing focused on concessional loans and strengthening debt management and debt reporting, especially for SOEs and provinces.

Jul 19, 2026

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