民主刚果共和国 - 联合世界银行-IMF 外债可持续性分析

Jul 19, 2026

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Analysis under the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework finds the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at moderate risk of both external and overall debt distress. The debt-carrying capacity remains weak, driven mainly by limited revenue mobilization while stress tests breach external debt thresholds for solvency and liquidity risks. Vulnerability to external shocks is linked especially to negative export shocks. With limited buffers and exposure to volatile commodity prices, the report emphasizes prudent borrowing on concessional terms and strengthening debt management and reporting coverage for SOEs and provinces.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

风险评级

外部债务与总体债务的中等风险

叠加判断与缓冲空间

主要决定因素与压力测试结论

收入动员不足

偿付与流动性阈值被触发

出口负向冲击的脆弱性

债务可持续性的政策含义

注重优惠贷款的借款政策

加强债务管理与报告覆盖

数据覆盖与改进措施

公共机构债务信息汇总机制

2023年9月的公共债务管理法令

Sicomines与省份债务披露安排

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Manuela Francisco and Asad Alam (IDA) and Annalisa Fedelino and Geremia Palomba (IMF) . Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO:<br>JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Some space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | No | According to the updated Low-Income Country Debt Sustainability Framework (LIC DSF), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains at a moderate risk of external and overall debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks, and its debt-carrying capacity remains weak.1Weak revenue mobilization is a main determinant for the DRC’s moderate risk of debt distress given low external debt. External debt thresholds for both solvency and liquidity risks are breached under the stress tests, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to external shocks, primarily regarding a negative shock to exports. Given limited buffers and exposure to risk from volatile commodities prices, prudent borrowing policies prioritizing concessional loans, and strengthening debt management policies remain essential to debt sustainability. 1. Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external and domestic debt covers debt contracted and guaranteed by the central government, the Central Bank of Congo (BCC), provinces, and stateowned enterprises (SOEs). The public debt department (Direction Générale de la Dette Publique , DGDP) 1 The DSA reflects a weak debt carrying capacity considering DRC’s Composite Indicator of 2.38, based on the April 2024 World Economic Outlook and the latest CPIA vintage (2022) . under the Ministry of Finance publishes quarterly and annual reports on its website with information on domestic and external debt based on the residency criteria. This report summarizes the debt of the central government, debt of Sicomines (a joint venture between the Congolese government and Chinese investors) and Gécamines, guaranteed external debt of SOEs managed by the government, and the BCC.2 Other public institutions are legally prevented from borrowing externally without approval, and unlikely to command market access without a government guarantee. However, the authorities do not receive any regular report from public institutions other than those named above or provinces. In light of this, the authorities are committed to improve quality of debt reporting, especially for SOEs, and are following upon recommendations from recent IMF technical assistance. To this end, the authorities have approved an ordinance-law on public debt management in September 2023 which mandates the DGDP to evaluate any new borrowing by SOEs prior to contracting debt, harmonizes the legal framework, reaffirms the exclusive role of the Ministry of Finance in contracting external debt. Supported by the World Bank Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP), under Performance and Policy Actions (PPA2), the authorities are committed to continuing to improve the coverage of their debt reports to include the reporting of additional | | | --- | | <br>1 Subsectors of the public sector Sub-sectors covered Central government X 2 State and local government X 3 Other elements in the general government 4 o/w: Social security fund 5 o/w: Extra budgetary funds (EBFs) 6 Guarantees (to other entities in the public and private sector, including to SOEs) X 7 Central bank (borrowed on behalf of the government) X 8 Non-guaranteed SOE debt X<br> | | 1 The country's coverage of public debt The central, state, and local governments, central bank, government-guaranteed debt, non-guaranteed SOE debt Default Used for the<br>analysis Reasons for deviations from the default settings 2 Other elements of the general government not captur

FAQs

DRC的外债与总体债务风险评级是多少？

根据LIC DSF更新框架，DRC外部债务与总体债务的风险均为中等风险（Moderate）。

收入动员不足如何影响DRC的债务风险？

报告指出，弱的收入动员是DRC保持中等外债风险的重要决定因素。

压力测试显示了哪些关键问题？

压力测试下，偿付与流动性相关的外债阈值在压力情景中被触发超限，反映对外部冲击的脆弱性，尤其与出口负向冲击有关。

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Levi