Niger: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis - External and Overall Debt Distress Risk

Jul 19, 2026

Niger’s external and overall public debt distress risk is assessed as moderate, unchanged from the December 2022 DSA. Intensified conflict in the Sahel and severe climate-related shocks raised borrowing needs and increased debt vulnerabilities. Key debt indicators stay below thresholds under the baseline scenario thanks to concessional and semi-concessional financing and expected robust growth, but limited space remains to absorb shocks. Fiscal consolidation, revenue mobilization, careful oil revenue management, stronger public debt management, and resilience investments are essential to support sustainability.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages24

Reading Time1 h 0 min

Risk Assessment of Debt Distress

External Debt Distress Risk (Moderate)

Overall Debt Distress Risk (Moderate)

Drivers and Scenario Implications

Shocks and Borrowing Vulnerabilities

Indicator Performance vs Thresholds

Limited Buffer to Absorb Shocks

Policy Priorities for Sustainability

Fiscal Consolidation and Revenue Mobilization

Oil Exports, Oil Revenue Management, and Public Debt Management

Mitigating Fiscal Risks from SOEs and Building Resilience

Public Disclosure Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Abebe Adugna and Manuela Francisco (IDA) Annalisa Fedelino and Fabian Valencia (IMF) . Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | NIGER: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | Moderate | | Overall risk of debt distress | Moderate | | Granularity in the risk rating | Limited space to absorb shocks | | Application of judgment | No | Niger’s risk of external and overall public debt distress is assessed “moderate”—unchanged from the previous DSA published in December 2022.1 A series of shocks, including intensified conflict in the Sahel region and severe climaterelated events, required higher borrowing, increasing debt vulnerabilities. Debt indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline scenario due to the reliance on concessional and semi-concessional financing and prospective robust growth, except for one single year breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio, which is discounted from the analysis. The remaining space to absorb shocks is limited. The urgency of fiscal consolidation, including the implementation of revenue mobilization measures, has increased due to the risk of further tightening of financial conditions in the regional market. Sustainability should be buttressed by the envisaged implementation of the government’s reform program, including efforts to boost domestic revenue mobilization, the onset of crude oil exports via a new pipeline, and the adequate management of oil revenues, as well as prudent public debt management. In the medium and long run, mitigating fiscal risks from SOEs, prioritizing concessional and semi-concessional borrowing, and strengthening privatesector development to support economic diversification would be key to strengthening Niger’s debt sustainability. Given Niger’s vulnerabilities to climate change, it is crucial to build resilience through adaptation investments and policies, while maintaining fiscal prudence. 1Niger’s debt-carrying capacity remains rated “medium” with a composite indicator value of 2.90 based on the April 2023 IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the 2021 World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) . 1. The coverage of the public sector in the DSA is in line with the fiscal accounts and the previous DSA (Text Table 1) . It covers the central government but excludes local governments and the social security fund. There are no extra budgetary funds. State guarantees extended to the private and public sectors for external borrowing are included. Publicly-guaranteed private debt is limited to the guarantee issued to the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for a loan to finance the refinery SORAZ to cover the government’s minority stake.2 SOEs do not directly borrow abroad, benefitting instead from on-lending by the central government, which is captured in the debt statistics at the stage where the central government borrows the funds. This includes the electricity (NIGELEC), water (SPEN), and telecom (Niger Telecom) companies, and the ABK, a public administrative entity set up for implementing the Kandadji dam project. Given the lack of reliable data, the DSA cannot explicitly account for domestic SOE debt. The authorities are working with the World Bank in the context of the Sustainable Development Finance Policy (SDFP) to improve the availability and quality of financial information for SOEs.3 The authorities have published the certified financial statements for 2019 and 2020 of the ten largest SOEs on the official website of the Ministry of Finance. They, with the World Bank’s support, will regularly prepare from 2023 onwards—and publish online—an annual portfolio report covering the largest SOEs that would present financial and operational performance information (including procurement activities, implementati

FAQs

What is Niger’s assessed risk of external debt distress?

The risk of external debt distress is assessed as moderate, unchanged from the previous DSA published in December 2022.

Why did debt vulnerabilities increase in the analysis?

A series of shocks—including intensified conflict in the Sahel region and severe climate-related events—required higher borrowing, increasing debt vulnerabilities.

Are debt indicators expected to remain within thresholds under the baseline scenario?

Yes, debt indicators remain below their thresholds under the baseline scenario due to concessional and semi-concessional financing and prospective robust growth, except for a discounted single-year breach in the external debt service-to-revenue ratio.

Jul 19, 2026

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