Will Japan Re-Arm? - Emerson Says "No"

Sep 29, 2026

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A discussion from a Commonwealth Club forum centers on Japan’s defense posture and whether Japan should re-arm. It highlights claims that Japan will continue to rely on the American nuclear umbrella and outlines assumptions about how the U.S. might respond in the event of attack. Speaker arguments emphasize Japan’s self-defense principles, political opposition to nuclear weapons, and perceived credibility risks in regional relationships. The document also addresses related views on U.S. and international dynamics.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryReligion & Spirituality

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time18 min

AccessFree to download

Will Japan Re-Arm?

Emerson Says "No"

OFFICIAL JOURNALDHE COMMONWEALTN CL磨F CALIFORNASAMN FRAICISC0,CA 94105 RIDAY,MARCH 12h,12 MOON Tiekats $6.00 at door He said,“Military forces,as known inthe U.S.,are unconstitutional in Japan.Instead,Japan has self-defense air,groundand marine forces.These self-defense The Council on Wage and Price Stability declared that"significant benefits to the economy"could be gained by ending the Postal Service's monopoly on the handling of letters.—Couldcompetition lead to greater economic efficiency?Lower rates?Service efficiency?If privateconcerns took over,would taxpayers have to subsldize the money-losing dolivery routes?Couldseveral private concerns effectively coordinate cro88-country delivery routos? RIDAY,MARCH 19h,12 MOOW60LD BMLIROON,SMRATOW-PALACE HOTE"South Africa and Angola"His Excellency R.F.BOTHAAmbassador to the U.S.from South Africa Tickets $6.00 at door # Will Japan Re-Arm?一Emmerson Says"No" “Will Japan Re-Arm?”This was the topie of discussion by the members of theClub's Section on Pacific Basin Affairs.The Section had as its guest speaker JohnEmmerson,Scholar in Residence,TheHoover Institution on War,Revolutionand Peace at Stanford University.(See-tion Chairman,Richard A.Eastman) The Japanese will continue to rely onthe American nuclear umbrella as a de(Conised enrst page) # RMSTCM ROOM,SHERATONPMACE HOTE "Re-Examining a Legacy"The HonorableBENJAMIN F.BAILAR U.S.POSTMASTER GENERAL twenty-fifth of that of the U.S. Japan is now in the process of develop-ing a five-year defense plan which will bein effect in 1977.The plan ineludes a $43billion increase in the military budget(twice as much as it is today).It does notcall for an increase in military strength,only an emphasis on quality. JOHN R.SHUMAN,Quarlerly Chairman forces equal one-tenth of the U.S.military forces.Japan's military budget equals one py EMMERSON (Confinued from preceding page) fense back-up.They expect their self-de-fense forces to hold out until the Ameri-cans are able to intervene. The Japanese have established threebasic principles in case of attack:avoid-ance,limitation and termination.TheJapanese do not expect an all-out attack.The principle of their self-defense forcesis to deal with limited attack. Japan feels that one of three things willhappen in case of attack:(1)the U.S.willbecome directly involved,(2)the U.S.will take action through diplomatic medi-ation and negotiation,(3)surrender. # Sino-Sovlet Conflict The Japanese do not envisage any ma-jor military threat within the next tenyears.They cannot be convinced thateither China or the U.S.S.R.poses a threatof military invasions.The Sino-Soviet con-flict has placed Japan in the middle witheach country 'wooing'Japan for favors. The Japanese and Americans are wellaware of the major importance of Japanin Southeast Asia.Many are concernedabout the credibility of the U.S.-Japantreaty.If the U.S.S.R.were to attack Japanwith nuclear weapons,the Japanese woulddefinitely understand the United States'hesitation to respond.The Japanese ap-preciate the U.S.S.R.-U.S.situation.Theyview their agreement with the U.S.as | OFFICERS OF THE CLU
Presldent
The Commonwealth
John B.Bates_
James W.Halley_Vlce Presldent
Davld J.McDaniel_Chmn.,Exec.Comm.
Publlshed every Monday by the
Richard H.Peterson-—Secretary
vy Lee,Jr._ ——___Treasurer
CommonweaHh Club of Californie
Durward S.Rlggs__Executlve Director
Michael J.Brassington
681 Market Street
Aasoclate Executve Director
San Franclsco,Callfornla 94105
Stuart R.Ward Exec.Diroctor Emerltus
(416)362-4903
GOVERNORS OF THE CLU
Dean Daskarolis,Justlce Murray Draper,
Editor:Durward S.Rlggs
Bradley B.Garretson,Vernon L.Goodln,
Maneging Edltor:MichaelJ.Brassington
Rear Adm

FAQs

What is the main question discussed about Japan’s defense policy?

Whether Japan should re-arm, framed around Japan’s likely reliance on the American nuclear umbrella.

Why does the speaker argue Japan will not acquire nuclear weapons?

The speaker cites strategic reasoning, Japan’s political opposition through the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles,” and international considerations affecting relationships with other countries.

How does the document describe Japan’s approach to attack threats?

It describes three basic principles for attack situations—avoidance, limitation, and termination—and expects limited forms of attack rather than an all-out attack.

Sep 29, 2026

Upload by jayni