Temperature, Effort, and Achievement - Evidence from a Large-Scale Standardized Exam in Brazil

Sep 6, 2026

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Standardized exams are widely used to gauge education quality, yet external conditions like pollution and temperature can harm performance. The study delivers the first empirical evidence on how exam stakes change the sensitivity of performance to temperature. Using within-person score variation from millions of Brazilian test-takers across two exam days, it estimates temperature-shock effects and their interaction with stakes.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages48

Reading Time2 h 1 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

1 Introduction

Standardized exams and measurement role

Temperature and cognitive performance

Exam stakes and incentives for effort

Empirical strategy and identification

Findings and implications

Temperature, e􀀋ort, and achievement: Evidence from a large-scale standardized exam in Brazil Ana Paula Melo Mizuhiro Suzuki∗ Howard University Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison October, 2021 Abstract Standardized exams are a popular measure of education quality. However, there is increasing concern and evidence on the negative e􀀋ects of external factors, such as pollution and temperature, on exam performance. In our paper, we provide the 􀀌rst empirical evidence on how the exam stakes a􀀋ect the sensitivity of performance to temperature. We explore a unique context in which the stakes of a large-scale standardized exam change from relatively low to high. We use within-individual variations in exam scores of millions of exam takers in Brazil and temperature across two exam days. We 􀀌nd that a one standard deviation increase in temperature during the exam decreases the average exam score by 0.036 s.d. Exploring time and geographical variation on exam stakes, we 􀀌nd that the higher the stakes, the smaller the e􀀋ects of temperature on exam performance. Our results suggest that e􀀋ort is an important channel through which temperature a􀀋ects exam performance. In a high-stakes environment, exam takers exert more e􀀋ort, counterbalancing an otherwise important temperature e􀀋ect in a low-stakes setting. ∗ The authors would like to thank Laura Schechter for her extensive feedback and support, Bradford Barham, Joshua Deutschmann, Jeremy Foltz, Priya Mukherjee, Je􀀋rey Smith, and seminar participants atthe UW-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics department for helpful comments and suggestions. Any errors in this draft are the sole responsibility of the authors. 1 Introduction Standardized exams are a popular measure of education quality and a widely used resource allocation criterion. That includes government 􀀌nancial transfers to schools, teacher's compensation, college seats, and 􀀌nancial aid. Worldwide, standardized tests are preferable measures to compare test-takers across di􀀋erent contexts and across time. It is also a cheap and e􀀋ective signal available, especially to high-achieving low-income students in, for example, college applications in the US (Hyman, 2017) . Standardized tests, on the other hand, have received increasing push-back due to scores being sensitive to an array of demographics, psychological and context-speci􀀌c characteristics such as gender, socioemotional skills, pollution, and temperature.1 There is increasing academic and public attention towards the e􀀋ects of temperature on exam performance and its consequence on human capital accumulation. The literature 􀀌ndings on adverse e􀀋ects of temperature are especially relevant in high spatial temperature variability contexts without universal air conditioning coverage, like in the US, Brazil, India, or China. However, the perceived importance of an exam to individuals' outcomes directly determines students' incentives to exert e􀀋ort and, therefore, their ability to respond to unexpected external shocks. Whether high-or low-stakes contexts drive the current evidence on the e􀀋ects of temperature on cognitive performance remains an open question. This paper provides the 􀀌rst empirical evidence on how exam stakes interact with thee􀀋ects of temperature on performance. Using individual-level data on millions of exam takers in a national high school exam administered yearly in Brazil, we estimate the e􀀋ectsof transitory temperature shocks on exam scores and how it interacts with the exam stakes. For instance, Park (2020) develops a model on how heat increases the disutility of e􀀋ort. In a low-stakes environment, a signi􀀌cant portion of the reduction in performance can be 1 See Borghans et al. (2016); Ebenstein et al. (2016); Gra􀀋 Zivin et al. (2018); Reardon et al. (2018) . due to reduced e􀀋ort. In a high-stakes environment, test takers have incentives to maximize e􀀋ort. In such cases, the e􀀋ects of temperature on scores are more likely due to temperat

FAQs

How does the paper link temperature to exam performance?

It studies how transitory temperature shocks during a national standardized exam affect individual exam scores, focusing on whether performance sensitivity depends on exam stakes.

What data and design does the study use?

The paper uses within-individual variations from millions of Brazilian exam takers, leveraging temperatures across two consecutive exam days and differences in exam stakes over time and geography.

What is the main finding regarding effort?

The results indicate effort is a key channel: in higher-stakes settings, test-takers exert more effort, counterbalancing temperature-related performance declines seen in lower-stakes contexts.

Sep 6, 2026

Upload by Ezra