Progression of the 2020 Key Stage 4 cohort to post-16 study - Research Report - 24 July 2024

Sep 5, 2026

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Progression of the 2020 Key Stage 4 cohort to post-16 study analyzes how students move from Key Stage 4 into Key Stage 5, covering uptake, retention, and academic performance. The report draws on National Pupil Database data and Post-16 Learning Aims data, applying quantitative methods including regression analysis to examine progression and dropout patterns. Findings include overall and subject-specific qualification uptake, A level retention dynamics, and performance in Level 3 and A level qualifications, culminating in combined progression-to-performance outcomes.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages159

Reading Time6 h 41 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

1.2 The current research

2. Data and methods

2.1 Data

2.1.1 National Pupil Database data

2.1.2 Post-16 Learning Aims data

2.2 Methods

3. Results

3.1 Uptake

3.1.1 General uptake in Key Stage 5

3.1.2 Uptake of Key Stage 5 qualifications

3.1.3 Subject uptake

3.1.4 Regression analysis: progression to Key Stage 5

3.2 Retention

3.2.1 Dropping out at least one qualification

3.2.2 Dropping out at least one A level

3.3 Performance

3.3.1 Overall performance in Level 3 qualifications

3.3.2 Overall A level performance

3.3.3 Performance in individual A level subjects

3.4 Combined progression to and performance at the end of Key Stage 5

4. Summary and conclusions

References

Appendix A: Uptake of Key Stage 5 qualifications

Appendix B: Uptake of Key Stage 5 qualifications, by students’ characteristics

Appendix C: Uptake of individual A level and Applied General subjects

Progression of the 2020 Key Stage 4 cohort to post-16 study Research Report Carmen Vidal Rodeiro 24 July 2024 Author contact details: Carmen Vidal Rodeiro Assessment Research and Development Research Division Shaftesbury Road Cambridge CB2 8EA UK [carmen.vidalrodeiro@cambridge.org](carmen.vidalrodeiro@cambridge.org) [https://www.cambridge.org/](https://www.cambridge.org/) As a department of the university, Cambridge University Press & Assessment is respected and trusted worldwide, managing three world-class examination boards, and maintaining the highest standards in educational assessment and learning. We are a not-for-profit organisation. Cambridge University Press & Assessment is committed to making our documents accessible in accordance with the WCAG 2.1 Standard. We’re always looking to improve the accessibility of our documents. If you find any problems or you think we’re not meeting accessibility requirements, contact our team: Research Division If you need this document in a different format contact us telling us your name, email address and requirements and we will respond within 15 working days. How to cite this publication: Vidal Rodeiro, C. L. (2024) . Progression of the 2020 Key Stage 4 cohort to post-16 study. Cambridge University Press & Assessment. Acknowledgements: This work was carried out in the Secure Research Service, part of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) . It contains statistical data from ONS which is Crown Copyright. The use of the ONS statistical data in this work does not imply the endorsement of the ONS in relation to the interpretation or analysis of the statistical data. This work uses research datasets which may not exactly reproduce National Statistics aggregates. Table of Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 5 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 10 1.2 The current research ................................................................................................. 11 2. Data and methods........................................................................................................... 12 2.1 Data........................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 National Pupil Database data .............................................................................. 12 2.1.2 Post-16 Learning Aims data ................................................................................ 14 2.2 Methods .................................................................................................................... 15 3. Results ............................................................................................................................ 19 3.1 Uptake ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 General uptake in Key Stage 5............................................................................ 19 3.1.2 Uptake of Key Stage 5 qualifications ................................................................... 27 3.1.3 Subject uptake .................................................................................................... 37 3.1.4 Regression analysis: progression to Key Stage 5................................................ 39 3.2 Retention ................................................................................................................... 46 3.2.1 Dropping out at least one qualification................................................................. 46 3.2.2 Dropping out at least one A level

FAQs

What does the report measure about the 2020 Key Stage 4 cohort after post-16 entry?

It examines progression into Key Stage 5 through uptake, retention (including dropout), and performance in Level 3 and A level qualifications, ending with combined progression-to-performance outcomes.

Which data sources and methods are used?

The report uses National Pupil Database data and Post-16 Learning Aims data. It applies analytical methods including regression analysis to study progression to Key Stage 5 and dropout of qualifications.

How is uptake analyzed in the results section?

Uptake is broken down into general uptake in Key Stage 5, uptake of Key Stage 5 qualifications, subject uptake, and regression analysis focused on progression to Key Stage 5.

Sep 5, 2026

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