Post-16 transitions for ‘lower GCSE attainers’ in Greater Manchester - Findings summary

Sep 5, 2026

Summary of Greater Manchester-specific findings from a research project on post-16 transitions for young people who do not achieve grade A*-C (now 9-4) in English and maths GCSE by the end of Key Stage 4. The research combines quantitative and qualitative analysis linking KS4 and post-16 data to examine who these ‘lower attainers’ are, what happens during the post-16 phase, and the barriers affecting progress and achievement. The report focuses on Greater Manchester localities and coverage from 2013–2017.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages27

Reading Time1 h 8 min

AccessFree to download

About this report

Research focus and scope

‘Lower attainers’ in Greater Manchester

Attainment profiles within the ‘lower attainer’ group

Post-16 transitions for ‘lower GCSE attainers’ in Greater Manchester Ruth Lupton, Alex Macdougall, Stephanie Thompson, Sanne Velthuis and Lorna Unwin About this report This is a summary of Greater Manchester (GM) specific findings from a research project on the post-16 transitions of young people who do not achieve grade A*-C (now 9-4) in English and maths GCSE by the end of Key Stage 4 (KS4). We called these young people ‘lower attainers’. In most years they make up around two fifths of the GCSE cohort. The research involved quantitative and qualitative analysis linking KS4 and post-16 data. It produced many important new insights into who these young people are, what happens to them in the post-16 phase and what the barriers are to progress and achievement. You can find below links to the full report and a summary1, as well as a recording of the launch event2, a blog with some of the main findings3, and a data dashboard enabling exploration of the data at local education authority, combined authority, regional and national levels.4 The research focused on two combined authority areas: Greater Manchester and North of Tyne, and within them on smaller localities to explore how transitions are affected by local structures of provision and practices. In Greater Manchester, these localities were Oldham, Cheetham Hill & Crumpsall, Eccles, and Wythenshawe (see Appendix A for definitions) . One of the key contributions of this aspect of the research was to document all the advertised post-16 provision in these localities (by subject and level) and the entry requirements, thus identifying which learners could get into which courses/apprenticeships. This short report summarises findings for Greater Manchester. For ease of reading we have not included wider findings or conclusions or details of our methodology, which can be found at the links below. There is a brief methodological overview at Appendix B. A key point to note is that the research covers the years 2013 to 2017 (the most recent data available at the time of the research) . The main focus is on the cohort completing Key Stage 4 in 2015, since these can be tracked through to age 19. This means that we refer to the old GCSE grading system (A*-U) . For the smaller localities we use pooled data from the 2013 to 2016 GCSE cohorts to increase the number of observed learners. 1 [http://www.manchester.ac.uk/post16transitions](http://www.manchester.ac.uk/post16transitions. The main)[. The main](http://www.manchester.ac.uk/post16transitions. The main) report is entitled: Moving on from initial GCSE ‘failure’: Post- 16 transitions for ‘lower attainers’ and why the English education system must do better. 2 [https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/events/moving-on-from-gcse-failure](https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/events/moving-on-from-gcse-failure) 3 [http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/posts/2021/02/fi](http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/posts/2021/02/fi)lling-a-youth-shaped-gap-in-the-fe-white-paper-reducinginequalities-in-post-16-progression/ 4 Available to download here: [https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/students-who-do-not-achieve-a-grade-c-or](https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/students-who-do-not-achieve-a-grade-c-or)above-in-english-and-maths ‘Lower attainers’ in Greater Manchester The proportion of ‘lower attainers’ in Greater Manchester is very similar to that of England as a whole (Figure 1), although since 2015 it has been little higher than for England overall, previously slightly lower. Figure 1: Percentage of learners in Greater Manchester and England who are ‘lower attainers’ (i.e. did not achieve grade C/4 in English and/or maths, or both), 2013-2017 | 60
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0 | 44.9 44.2 44.1 43.2 39.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 | | --- | --- | | Greater Manchester England | | Source: National Pupil Database. Note. Data labels are for Greater Manchester. Figure 2 shows the proportion of ‘lower a

FAQs

Who are ‘lower attainers’ in this report?

They are young people who do not achieve grade A*-C (now 9-4) in English and/or maths GCSE by the end of Key Stage 4.

What data years and cohort focus does the research use?

The study covers 2013 to 2017. The main focus tracks the Key Stage 4 cohort completing in 2015 through to age 19.

How did the research analyze variation within the ‘lower attainer’ group?

It grouped ‘lower attainers’ into nine attainment categories based on performance in English and maths GCSEs and overall GCSE or equivalent achievement.

Sep 5, 2026

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