The forgotten fifth - Examining the early education trajectories of teenagers who fall below the expected standards in GCSE English language and maths examinations at age 16 - CLS Working Paper 2022/6

Sep 5, 2026

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Successive Governments have failed to address an issue that continues to affect England’s education system: many teenagers leave secondary school without the “expected standard” of a grade 4 pass in GCSE English language and maths. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), the paper analyzes antecedents and academic trajectories for 18% of teenagers who did not meet both thresholds. Pre-school “school readiness” and early teacher assessments of literacy and numeracy at ages 3 and 5 are highly predictive of failing to reach grade 4 by age 16, even after controlling for family background and individual characteristics. The findings indicate one quarter of children below expected levels at age 5 do not achieve a grade 4 pass or above, compared with one tenth above expected levels. Half of age-16 failures were already judged behind at age 5. Future improvement depends on high-quality support in pre-school years, strengthening the home learning environment, and enabling teachers to identify and respond early.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages60

Reading Time2 h 31 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Acknowledgements

Introduction

The forgotten fifth: Examining the early education trajectories of teenagers who fall below the expected standards in GCSE English language and maths examinations at age 16 CLS working paper number 2022/6 Lee Elliot Major and Sam Parsons Contact the authors Lee Elliot Major University of Exeter [L.Elliot-Major@exeter.ac.uk](L.Elliot-Major@exeter.ac.uk)[ ](L.Elliot-Major@exeter.ac.uk)Sam Parsons UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies [sam.parsons@ucl.ac.uk](sam.parsons@ucl.ac.uk) This working paper was first published in August 2022 by the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies. UCL Social Research Institute University College London 20 Bedford Way London WC1H 0AL [www.cls.ucl.ac.uk](www.cls.ucl.ac.uk) The UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS) is an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Resource Centre based at the UCL Social Research Institute, University College London. It manages four internationally-renowned cohort studies: the 1958 National Child Development Study, the 1970 British Cohort Study, Next Steps, and the Millennium Cohort Study. For more information, [visit](visit www.cls.ucl.ac.uk)[ ](visit www.cls.ucl.ac.uk)[www.cls.ucl.ac.uk](visit www.cls.ucl.ac.uk). This document is available in alternative formats. Please contact the Centre for Longitudinal Studies. Tel: +44 (0)20 7612 6875 Email: [clsfeedback@ucl.ac.uk](clsfeedback@ucl.ac.uk) Disclaimer This working paper has not been subject to peer review. CLS working papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion. Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), the UCL Social Research Institute, University College London, or the Economic and Social Research Council. How to cite this paper Elliot Major, L. , Parsons, S. (2022) The forgotten fifth: examining the early education trajectories of teenagers who fall below the expected standards in GCSE English language and maths examinations at age 16. CLS Working Paper 2022/6 . London: UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies. Abstract Successive Governments have failed to address an issue that continues to plague the British education system: many teenagers leave secondary school without the‘expected standard’ of a grade 4 pass in GCSE English language and maths. We use the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) to assess the antecedents and academic trajectories of the 1 in 5 (18%) of teenagers in England who did not achieve these two thresholds , despite benefitting from many education reforms. We find that identification of falling below expected standards in pre-school assessment of ‘school readiness’(age 3) and in teacher assessment of literacy and number skills at school entrance (age 5) are both highly predictive of failure to attain a grade 4 or higher in GCSE English language and maths at age 16 , even after controlling for family background and individual characteristics. One in 4 children below expected levels at age 5 fail to achieve a grade 4 pass or above in their English language and maths GCSE at age 16 compared with 1 in 10 children above expected levels at age 5. Half of pupils who fail at age 16 were judged to be behind at age 5. We conclude that future attempts to improve standards in English and maths will likely only succeed if high quality support is provided during the pre-school years , support is provided to improve the home learning environment, and teachers are able to identify, diagnose and respond appropriately to children falling behind at early education stages. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Monday Charitable Trust for their generous support in funding this three-year research project, and we dedicate this report to one of their founders, Robert Lane who sadly died in 2021. We also wish to thank Joh

FAQs

What problem does the paper examine in England’s education system?

The paper examines why many pupils leave school at age 16 without the expected GCSE grade 4 pass in both English language and maths. It treats this as an intractable problem that successive Governments have not effectively addressed.

What data and group are used to study students who fall below the standard?

The analysis uses the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). It focuses on the 1 in 5 (18%) of teenagers in England who did not achieve both GCSE thresholds at age 16.

Which early indicators predict failure to reach GCSE grade 4 at age 16?

The paper finds that both pre-school assessment of “school readiness” at age 3 and teacher assessment of literacy and numeracy at school entrance (age 5) strongly predict whether students reach grade 4 or higher at age 16.

Sep 5, 2026

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