Progress, Setbacks, & Uncertainty - Effects of covid-19 & Coup on Poverty in Myanmar

Jul 19, 2026

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The Myanmar Poverty Synthesis Note examines poverty reduction progress in Myanmar before the COVID-19 crisis and identifies how the pandemic and the 1 February 2021 military coup reversed earlier welfare gains. It synthesizes evidence from the Myanmar Poverty Assessment covering 2005–2017 and World Bank High-Frequency Phone Surveys conducted March 2020–February 2022. The analysis highlights how compounded shocks and growth slowdown weakened Myanmar’s ability to sustain improvements for its population, while detailing survey scope and key limitations affecting measurement.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages39

Reading Time1 h 38 min

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Poverty reduction context and dual shocks

Data sources and study design

Analytical limitations

Sustained poverty reduction & improved living standards prior to COVID-19

Trends in poverty headcount and consumption among the poor

Myanmar Poverty Synthesis Note 8 JULY 2022 Public Disc losure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Progress, Setbacks, & Uncertainty Effects of covid-19 & Coup on Poverty in Myanmar Pub lic Disc losure Authorized MYANMAR POVERTY SYNTHESIS NOTE P. 2 Acknowledgements This poverty synthesis note is authored by Wendy Karamba (Economist) with contributions from Isabelle Salcher (Consultant). We are grateful to Lwin Lwin Aung (Consultant) and Kimsun Tong (Economist) for their support on the data collection of the Myanmar High-Frequency Phone Survey. The team would like to thank Giorgia Demarchi for her comments and suggestions for improvement, Sutirtha Sinha Roy for support with finalization, Arnold Marseille and the external communications team of the World Bank for their support and guidance on publication and outreach, Sandi Soe Lwin, Thida Aung, Tin HninnYu and Mildred Gonsalvez for excellent administrative support, and Kamal Muhammad for excellent assistance in formatting thereport. The team also wishes to thank Emilie Bernadette Perge and Giorgia Demarchi, whose invaluable work on the 2022 Myanmar Poverty Assessment has heavily informed this poverty synthesis and provides the basis of our understanding of the evolution and drivers of poverty reduction in Myanmar in the period preceding and during the coronavirus pandemic. The report was prepared under the guidance of Hassan Zaman (Regional Director for East Asia and the Pacific); Mariam J. Sherman (Country Director for Cambodia, Myanmar and LAO PDR); Kim Alan Edwards (Program Leader for EAP Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Practice Group), and Rinku Murgai (Manager, Poverty and Equity Global Practice). The World Bank team wishes to convey a sincere thankyou to the respondents of the Myanmar High-Frequency Phone Survey for anonymously providing information in challenging conditions. ● MYANMAR POVERTY SYNTHESIS NOTE P. 3 1 Introduction 1 World Bank (2022). Myanmar Poverty Assessment: Gains under threat. 2 World Bank Myanmar Monitoring Platform – Household Surveys ([https://www.worldbank](https://www.worldbank). org/en/country/Myanmar/brief/ monitoring-households). 3 In HFPS round 6, the sample size was only 1,271 households because data collection stopped on the day of the military takeover on 1 February 2021. I n 2011, Myanmar embarked on a triple transition: from military to civilian rule; from conflict to peace; and from a planned economy to an open, market economy. Myanmar opened to the world, boosting opportunities for goods, people, and ideas to move across its borders. It also opened internally, with the space for public discourse expanding as the political transition to civilian rule picked pace. Economic and political reforms translated into vastly improved living standards. The dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and military coup on 1 February 2021 have setback Myanmar’s poverty reduction progress. The compounded effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and coup have eroded a decade of welfare gains. The growth slowdown accompanying the dual shocks has affected the country’s ability to deliver a more prosperous future for its 54 million citizens. This poverty synthesis note documents Myanmar’s poverty reduction progress leading to the COVID-19 crisis, and setback to these gains brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic and coup. The note aims to extract lessons from the Myanmar Poverty Assessment and the World Bank High-Frequency Phone Surveys. Analysis of welfare trends and drivers of poverty changes draws from the Poverty Assessment and covers the period 2005–2017, in line with existing national household surveys.1 Analysis of COVID-19 and 2021 military coup effects relies on the World Bank High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) conducted between March 2020 and February 2022.2 Starting May 2020, seven rounds of the phone survey data have been collected, each with national coverage consisting of

FAQs

What does the report analyze about Myanmar’s poverty changes?

It documents poverty reduction progress leading up to the COVID-19 crisis and the setback to those gains brought by the COVID-19 pandemic and the military coup on 1 February 2021.

Which data sources support the analysis?

The analysis uses the Myanmar Poverty Assessment for welfare trends and drivers over 2005–2017, and World Bank High-Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) collected between March 2020 and February 2022 to assess COVID-19 and 2021 coup effects.

Why are there limitations in estimating poverty during 2019–2022?

Official poverty was last assessed in 2017, creating wide error bands for projections amid uncertainty. In addition, phone surveys may miss households without phone access and those with weak mobile coverage.

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Ezra