Dominican Republic - Country Climate and Development Report - Annex 3 - Power Sector Decarbonization Key Messages

Jul 19, 2026

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Dominican Republic power sector decarbonization priorities focus on reducing fossil-fuel reliance and improving energy security. Dependence on imported fuels and high carbon intensity risk affordability shocks, while renewables growth—especially solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind—can lower generation dependence. Meeting 2030 NDCs and cutting GHG emissions at least 30% below reference by 2050 requires additional generation and network investment, alongside grid expansion, storage, flexibility incentives, coordinated EV charging, and financial sustainability of utilities.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages36

Reading Time1 h 31 min

Key messages for power sector decarbonization (1)

Investment needs and generation cost impacts

Key messages for power sector decarbonization (2)

Coal retirement, grid integration, and EV charging policies

Meeting NDC2030 targets and electricity cost drivers

Capital costs, fuel costs, and risk mitigation

Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized DO MINICAN REPUBLIC The DR needs to prioritize energy sector decarbonization to meet its 2030 NDCs and increase energy security Reliance on fossil fuels in the power sector and import dependency pose potential energy security and affordability risks • High carbon intensity in power generation threatens to lock in high reliance on imported fossil fuels and associated fuel price volatility. • Fossil fuels accounted for 84% of total generation in 2022, VRE 8%, hydro 7% and biomass 1% • Hydropower potential not fully used due to competing water uses. • Large potential for solar (> 50 GW), medium potential for onshore wind (~ 10 GW) and large potential for offshore wind (~60 GW) could reduce reliance on fossil fuels Country Climate and Development Report 2 Key messages for power sector decarbonization (1) • Reaching the NDC commitments in 2030 and keeping GHG emissions at least 30% below the reference emissions up to 2050 requires additional investments of $2.6 billion in generation and $700 million in networks (discounted) . • Deep decarbonization coupled with large scale transport electrification could almost triple the investment needs to $25.5 billion up to 2050. • Reaching NDC2030 targets will only modestly increase the average generation costs. • Deep decarbonization by 2050 with large-scale transport electrification could increase generation costs by more than 20% . • RE (in particular solar PV) is the cheapest option for new generation. CO2 emissions today 500 gCO2/kWh Fossil based power system today Electricity demand growth 4-6% p.a. Strong economic growth and electrification Deep Power Sector Decarbonization Renewables share 2050: 67% Up from 16% today Total investment costs: 25.5 billion USD ~3x higher than NP Country Climate and Development Report 3 Key messages for power sector decarbonization (2) • Fossil-fueled plants risk becoming economically unviable under more stringent decarbonization targets. More than 800 MW of coal could be retired before 2040 in all scenarios with decarbonization targets. • Grid integration of VRE will require energy storage, policies to remunerate flexibility and ancillary services, together with an expanded and more efficient and resilient grid. • Coordinated charging policies and incentives are needed to reduce the additional costs from large scale EV deployment. • In the absence of coordinated charging policies, electrification of 70% of the vehicle fleet in NZP2050 increases electricity demand by ~70% and more than doubles peak load by 2050. CO2 emissions today 500 gCO2/kWh Fossil based power system today Electricity demand growth 4-6% p.a. Strong economic growth and electrification Deep Power Sector Decarbonization Renewables share 2050: 67% Up from 16% today Total investment costs: 25.5 billion USD ~3x higher than NP Country Climate and Development Report 4 Meeting 2030 NDC commitments and GHG emissions at least 30% below the reference emissions require additional investments of $2.6 billion in generation and $700 million in networks (discounted) . Deep decarbonization with large scale transport electrification could triple the investment needs to $25.5 billion (discounted) . • Investments in the power sector average:(undiscounted figures) 􀀁 ~ US$700 million a year in NP 􀀁 ~ US$1 .0 billion a year in the NDC2030 􀀁 ~ US$2 .5 billion for NZP2050 • The entire energy transition requires financially sustainable utilities. The DR will need to implement measures to increase the long-term financial viability of distribution utilities (current cost recovery level is ~ 95%) . 􀀁Tariff reform, revenue protection programs, distribution network rehabilitation, and deployment of smart meters will help improve the financial position of the public distribution utilities. Country Climate and Development

FAQs

Why must the Dominican Republic prioritize power sector decarbonization?

Reliance on fossil fuels and high carbon intensity create energy security and affordability risks due to imported fuel dependence and price volatility.

What investment levels are required to meet 2030 NDC commitments?

Meeting NDC commitments for 2030 and achieving at least 30% lower GHG emissions than reference requires about $2.6 billion in generation investment and $700 million in network investment (discounted).

What factors drive higher generation costs under deeper decarbonization?

Higher upfront capital expenditures increase the share of capital costs, while fuel cost shares decrease; sound risk mitigation and risk allocation are needed to enable low-cost financing.

Jul 19, 2026

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