Thailand - 4 Managing the net-zero transition - key strategies and scenarios

Jul 19, 2026

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Chapter 4 analyzes the challenge for Thailand to meet carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. It outlines required investments and policy reforms across power, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, and land use/forestry, the main sources of national GHG emissions. It describes the revised LT-LEDS decarbonization trajectory, including renewables, efficiency, EV deployment, CCS, LULUCF carbon sink expansion, and carbon pricing instruments. It also reviews NDC targets and three assessment scenarios, highlighting growing sustainability challenges such as data centers.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages25

Reading Time1 h 3 min

AccessFree to download

Managing the net-zero transition

National targets and emission challenge

LT-LEDS measures and sector priorities

NDC objectives and additional required action

Data centers and sustainability constraints

Scenario framework: baseline, current policy, accelerated decarbonization

[Cover Page] and Development Report 2025 Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Thailand 4 Managing the net-zero transition This chapter assesses the challenge of meeting Thailand’s commitments to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065 . It focuses on the required investments and policy reforms in the power, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, and land use/forestry sectors that are needed to meet these targets. Together, these sectors are responsible for almost all Thailand’s GHG emissions.1 As laid out in Chapter 1, although GHG emissions have been broadly flat in per capita terms over the past decade, net GHG emissions increased by 35 percent between 2000 and 2022, despite a significant expansion in carbon removal efforts through LULUCF. This underscores the significant challenge associated with putting net emissions on a downward trajectory. Thailand’s revised Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS), submitted to the UNFCCC in November 2022, sets out a trajectory of decarbonization across all sectors which is consistent with Thailand’s long-term objectives (Figure 4.1) . The LT-LEDS focuses on energy and transport which are the largest contributors to overall emissions. Key measures include scaling renewable energy adoption, enhancing energy efficiency, accelerating electric vehicle (EV) deployment, and deploying carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in high-emission industries. Thailand aims to ensure at least 50 percent of new power generation comes from renewables by 2050. The land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector is projected to sequester 120 MtCO₂ annually by 2037, with plans to expand forest cover to 55 percent of Thailand’s land area over the same period to enhance carbon sinks, supported by REDD+ programs. A carbon tax, an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) (operating as part of an envisaged hybrid system), and a framework for trade in carbon credits are each intended to incentivize industries to transition toward low-carbon practices.2 Figure 4.1: Thailand’s carbon neutrality and net-zero targets 2050 Carbon Neutrality pathway 2065 Net-zero GHG Emission Pathway Source: Thailand Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) (Revised Version) While Thailand’s 2030 NDC commitments can be viewed as an intermediate objective, substantial additional action will be required to meet longer term objectives in 2050 and 2065. As part of its NDC commitments, Thailand pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 percent from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level of 555 MtCO₂eq by 2030, with the potential to increase this target to 40 percent contingent on enhanced access to technology, financial resources, and capacity-building support.3 Even assuming the more ambitious 40 percent reduction is met by 2030, 1 While not covered in detail in this report, action on waste management (particularly at the community level) , as set out in the NDC Action Plan on Mitigation 2021-2030, will also make a material contribution to Thailand’s overall emissions reduction efforts. 2 Options for the design of these different carbon pricing instruments are analyzed in detail in the Thailand Carbon Pricing Impacts Assessment Final Report, World Bank Partnership for Market Implementation, May 2025 , and the Thailand Carbon Pricing Design Options Final Report, World Bank Partnership for Market Implementation, May 2025. 3 Thailand’s NDC 3.0 will shift to an absolute emissions reduction target for 2035. Thailand will need to reduce its gross GHG emissions by a further two thirds by 2065 to meet its netzero target. Moreover, newly emerging industries like data centers are not fully accounted for in these decarbonization trajectories, posing additional challenges. Data centers will be important in providin

FAQs

What long-term targets does Thailand need to meet for net-zero transition?

Thailand targets carbon neutrality by 2050 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2065. The chapter emphasizes that achieving these goals requires major additional actions beyond intermediate objectives.

Which sectors and policy measures are emphasized in Thailand’s net-zero transition plan?

The chapter focuses on power, manufacturing, transport, agriculture, and land use/forestry. Measures include renewable energy scaling, energy efficiency improvements, accelerated EV deployment, CCS in high-emission industries, expanding LULUCF carbon sinks, and carbon tax and an ETS to shift industries toward low-carbon practices.

How does the chapter evaluate feasibility and impacts of policy reforms?

It assesses three scenarios: a Baseline scenario with no added measures, a Current Policy scenario reflecting plans up to 2030, and an Accelerated Decarbonization scenario that intensifies reductions across multiple sectors. The scenarios compare costs and benefits of the recommended investments alongside other decarbonization interventions.

Jul 19, 2026

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