Barbados - Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Assessment Letter - Assessment

Jul 19, 2026

The Barbados Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Assessment Letter outlines the country’s climate vulnerability, explaining how heightened climate-driven hazards threaten people, society, and the economy. It details exposure from tropical cyclones, storm surge, flooding, and sea level rise, alongside projected temperature increases and potential rainfall reductions affecting key sectors. It further summarizes Barbados’s comparatively low greenhouse gas emissions and its implementation capacity, shaped by economic development, small-system constraints, limited fiscal space, and costly investments. It also reviews national policies and commitments to adaptation, including major planning frameworks and sector measures.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages3

Reading Time8 min

Country vulnerability to climate change

Key hazards and projected impacts

Sector-level effects

Emissions profile and emissions sink

Government policies and commitments for climate adaptation

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY (RSF) ASSESSMENT LETTER – BARBADOS November 14, 2022 1. Country vulnerability to climate change including human, social and economic costs Barbados is highly vulnerable to climate change due to increased frequency and intensity of climateinduced natural disasters. Located in the windward part of the Caribbean’s archipelago, Barbados’s climate is heavily influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its economy is especially vulnerable to the adverse effects of tropical cyclones, storm surge, and floods. The country’s low-lying coastal areas also face severe risk to sea level rise. Observed and anticipated climate change impacts are of particular concern to Barbados given the vulnerability of its housing stock and the increased probability of hurricanes making landfall on the island. Temperatures in Barbados are projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, with median annual mean temperatures expected to rise by 1.03°C under a high emissions scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0, SSP3-7 .0) by the 2040-2050 period. Changes in rainfall are less certain, however most scenarios show an expected reduction in annual precipitation across Barbados by the 2040-2059. Under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7 .0), annual precipitation is expected to decline by approximately 9 percent by mid-century.1 At the sector level, climate change is likely to significantly affect: i) tourism through increasing damage to coastal tourism infrastructure and erosion of beaches and coral reefs; ii) a reduction of water resources through groundwater contamination from flooding (as a consequence of changing precipitation patterns and increasing frequency of natural disasters), soil or pollutant infiltration and saline intrusion; iii) agricultural production through droughts, flooding and storm damages; and iv) fisheries due to sea surface temperature increase and sedimentation. Barbados’s greenhouse gas emissions are low, contributing to less than 0.01 percent of the global total. Emissions mainly come from energy and domestic transport (73 .7 percent), waste (14 .9 percent), industrial processes (8 .5 percent) and agriculture (3 .0 percent) . Land use, land use change and forestry provide a sink of greenhouse gas emissions of 51 Gg CO2e in 2010, equivalent to a reduction of 2.6 percent of total emissions for that year.2 Barbados’s ability to address the challenges posed by climate change is enhanced by its relatively high level of economic development but adversely affected by its small size and the high costs of this undertaking. The country has a population of 287,000 and a per capita gross national income of US$16,720, as of 2021. Barbados experienced several decades of solid economic growth, which led to an improvement in key social indicators, such as life expectancy, and enhanced its capabilities for handling any development challenges. However, as a small, open economy Barbados is highly vulnerable to exogenous economic shocks which are increasingly likely to compound due to climate change, leading to increasing and severe socio-economic costs in the absence of reforms and adaptation measures. At the same time, critical investments tend to be very costly as a share of gross domestic product given the small size of its economy and, despite improvements since 2018, its fiscal space is limited while attracting private financing is challenging. Such investments are also critical to help Barbados reduce its dependence 1 Source: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Accessed via: [https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/barbados](https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/barbados) 2 Barbados. National Communication (NC) . NC 2. [https://unfccc.int/documents/183387](https://unfccc.int/documents/183387) on fossil fuels and exposure to their price variability, with gains for climate change miti

FAQs

Why is Barbados highly vulnerable to climate change?

Barbados faces frequent and intense climate-driven natural disasters, with major risks from tropical cyclones, storm surge, flooding, and sea level rise. Its housing exposure and the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall increase concern.

How do projected climate trends affect key sectors in Barbados?

Projected warming and uncertain rainfall changes are expected to affect tourism, water resources, agriculture, and fisheries. The letter links these impacts to coastal damage and erosion, groundwater contamination and saline intrusion, droughts and flooding, and shifts in marine conditions.

What government frameworks and programs support climate adaptation in Barbados?

The government integrates adaptation into policy and sector planning, including the BERT Plan, the Physical Development Plan, and the Roofs to Reefs Programme. It also cites sector policies such as water reuse, integrated coastal zone management, disaster risk management, and climate change and agriculture measures.

Jul 19, 2026

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