Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) - World Bank Assessment Letter - Madagascar - February 5, 2025

Jul 19, 2026

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World Bank Assessment Letter for Madagascar under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) updates the May 2024 RSF assessment by outlining key changes since issuance. It details rising climate vulnerabilities, including rainfall deficits that reduced hydropower generation, disrupted power supply and business activity, and worsened agricultural impacts and food insecurity. It also summarizes ongoing government adaptation efforts and mitigation commitments, referencing Madagascar’s National Adaptation Plan and updated Nationally Determined Contribution targets.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages4

Reading Time10 min

Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)

A. Country vulnerability to climate change

B. Government policies and commitments for adaptation

C. Government policies and commitments for mitigation

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY (RSF) WORLD BANK ASSESSMENT LETTER-MADAGASCAR February 5, 2025 This letter updates the May 2024 RSF Assessment Letter and highlights relevant changes that have occurred since the issuance of the Assessment Letter.1 A. Country vulnerability to climate change – including human, social, and economic costs for the country arising from climate change vulnerabilities. Madagascar’s vulnerability to climate change has been underscored by the recent deficit in rainfall at the start of the rainy season (October–December 2024). The eastern part of Madagascar experienceda particularly severe deficit. The rainfall deficit significantly reduced the generation capacity of hydropower plants, led to prolonged power outages in many cities, and disrupted business activities. The gap in energy production was compensated by increased thermal production, which strained the already limited public finances. The deficit also compounded challenges in agriculture, particularly rice cultivation, which has been severely impacted. A decline in rice production might lead to a notable increase in rice prices in the next lean season, while exacerbating food insecurity and economic hardship for the population. The latest climate modeling for Madagascar foresees continued warming, increased rainfall variability, and more intense (though less frequent) cyclones. Cyclone Gamane, which hit the northern part of Madagascar in March 2024, affected up to 89,000 people and damaged 18,787 houses, with reconstruction costs estimated at 0.4 percent of GDP. Cyclone Dikeledi, which hit in January 2025, resulted in 3 deaths, more than 7,000 victims, and damages to road and social infrastructure in the northern part of the country. In the coming months, meteorological conditions in Madagascar will be influenced by the "La Nina" phase. Over the first quarter of 2025, the country expects to experience very uneven rainfalls across the island, and warmer-than-seasonal-normal temperatures.2Although Madagascar is a minor contributor to climate change, it is considered to be one of the countries that are most vulnerable and least prepared to cope with climate change. B. Government policies and commitments for climate change adaptation and priority areas to strengthen resilience. Madagascar’s National Adaptation Plan (PNA), published in 2021, aims to strengthen adaptation governance and mainstream adaptation within priority sectors, while mobilizing finance.3 To ensure the alignment of adaptation activities at the regional level with the national priorities, the Ministry of Environment has organized dissemination sessions for Madagascar’s PNA in five cities outside of the capital (Antsiranana, Manakara, Toliara, Toamasina, and Mahajanga). The sessions gathered representatives from local governments, local media, research institutions, decentralized representation of ministries, civil society, and local representatives of technical and financial partners. Ongoing programs support the implementation of the government’s adaptation agenda. These include the expansion of adaptative social safety net programs and the establishment of a social registry. Since April 2024, social safety net programs cover all regions of Madagascar. The programs comprise non-crisis packages targeting families most vulnerable to climatic risks and communities facing high levels of 1 World Bank Assessment Letter for the IMF Program under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust, IDA/SecM2024-0126 . 2 Rainfall is expected to be above the seasonal normal for the north-eastern regions and normal to below the seasonal normal for the Vatovavy and Fitovinany regions, the southern part of the Atsinanana and Melaky regions, the eastern part of the Amoron'i Mania and Haute Matsiatra regions. 3 Republic of Madagascar. 2021.“Plan National d’Adaptation Au Changement Climatique (PNA) Madagascar [National

FAQs

What climate-related change in Madagascar is highlighted since the May 2024 RSF assessment?

A rainfall deficit at the start of the 2024 rainy season (October–December) is emphasized, including severe impacts in the eastern part of Madagascar.

How did the rainfall deficit affect power generation and the economy?

Reduced hydropower generation led to prolonged power outages in many cities, disrupting business activities and increasing reliance on strained thermal production.

What planning and policy instruments support Madagascar’s climate adaptation and resilience efforts?

Madagascar’s National Adaptation Plan (PNA) and related implementation measures are described, including dissemination sessions, social registry and safety net expansion, and climate-sensitive infrastructure investment planning.

Jul 19, 2026

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