Working Paper Series - Andrea Pavelkova The ECB press conference: a textual analysis - No 2742 - October 2022

Oct 12, 2026

Central bank communication aims to inform the public about monetary policy and the economic outlook in a timely way, and prior evidence shows it can move markets. This paper examines the ECB press conference as a key communication tool by applying structural topic modelling to the introductory statement and the subsequent Q&A. Topics differ significantly across the two segments, with roughly equal shares of unique topics. The pattern indicates that the Q&A both clarifies the introduction and enables journalists to probe discussion within the Governing Council and broader economic stances.

LanguageEnglish

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Pages17

Reading Time6 min

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Abstract

Non-technical summary

1. Introduction

Working Paper Series Andrea Pavelkova The ECB press conference: a textual analysis No 2742 / October 2022 Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB) . The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Abstract The aim of central bank communication is to provide information on monetary policy and the economic outlook in a timely manner to the public. While research on central bank communication and specifically the European Central Bank’s press conference has shown that it has the potential to move markets, in-depth textual analysis of key communication tools creates room for further analysis. Focusing on the press conferences of the ECB, this paper employs structural topic modelling (STM) and finds that topics within the introductory statement and the Q&A are significantly different, with a nearly equal split of topics unique to both parts. The split of topics suggests that the Q&A does not only provide clarification of what has been said in the introductory statement, but also allows journalists to enquire about the discussion within the Governing Council as well as the ECB’s stance on broader economic issues. JEL codes: E50, E52, E58 Keywords: ECB press conference, central bank communication, text analysis, natural language processing, structural topic model Non-technical summary Communication of monetary policy decisions by central banks has significantly increased in clarity since the 1990s as a result of a gradual shift towards greater transparency. Managing expectations about the future course of policy is crucial, especially in times of economic uncertainty. With the introduction of non-standard measures, communication came to serve both as a vehicle for explaining policy decisions and a policy instrument in itself. One such key vehicle of ECB communication is the press conference. The ECB’s press conference typically consists of an introductory statement where the President reports on the outcomes of the preceding Governing Council meeting, followed by a Q&A session which serves as a space for journalists to request clarification on the Governing Council’s decisions as well as other topics. Research on the ECB’s press conferences has shown that what is said by the President during the event has the potential to move markets , providing a strong incentive to study the content of central bank statements as they have a significant effect on real economic variables. This paper analyses the textual content of ECB press conferences and seeks to answer the question: can differences in topics addressed in the introductory statement and the Q&A be identified via structural topic modelling? Results of this analysis can be summarised as follows. Topics prevalent in the introductory statement vary significantly from those present in the Q&A. This topic modelling approach successfully identified concrete topics which persist throughout introductory statements, as well as topics which emerge solely from the Q&A. Furthermore, the first six most prevalent topics within this sample of press conference transcripts are predominantly prominent within the Q&A segments, suggesting that the added value of a press conference is in providing the public with further information on the ECB’s decisions which were not presented in the introductory statement. Providing the space for abroader discussion in this manner contributes to transparency around monetary policy communication, enhancing its effectiveness. 1. Introduction The aim of central bank communication is to provide information on monetary policy and the economic outlook in a timely manner to the public. Until the 1990s, monetary policy decisions by central banks were low profile events and sometimes shrouded in mystery, if not deemed entirely secret. Central banks now communicate more clearly as a result of a gradual shift towards greater transpar

FAQs

What is the main objective of central bank communication discussed in the paper?

It is to provide timely information on monetary policy and the economic outlook to the public, helping manage expectations, especially during uncertainty.

How does the paper analyze the ECB press conference?

It applies structural topic modelling to compare topics in the introductory statement and the Q&A portions of ECB press conference transcripts.

What do the results suggest about the role of the Q&A session?

The Q&A contains topics that are significantly different from the introductory statement and includes material that can go beyond clarification, enabling questions about Governing Council discussion and wider economic issues.

Oct 12, 2026

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