Weekly Markets Monitor - Season to be tank-full

Oct 12, 2026

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Weekly Markets Monitor reviews market developments as of the most recent Friday close, focusing on the “Season to be tank-full” theme. It highlights strains and shifting rate-cut expectations across the US, Europe, and Asia, alongside higher global equity closes and eased US dollar. The gold section reports a rebound with rising ETF inflows, options and model signals, and a developing technical “triangle” continuation pattern. The outlook emphasizes geopolitical risks and upcoming Fed and macro data shaping expectations.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryPresentations

FormatPDF

Pages30

Reading Time11 min

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The week in review

What you need to know - Season to be tank-full

All about Gold

The week in review

The week ahead

Last week in review

China

Eurozone inflation near ECB target, UK plans tax increases

Japan: Tokyo inflation steady above target; stimulus budget approved

India posts solid growth amid tariffs

The week ahead

Bloomberg consensus expectations

[gold.org](gold.org) Weekly Markets Monitor 1 December 2025 All data as of most recent Friday close unless otherwise stated What you need to know – Season to be tank-full C. O.T.W: Season to be tank-full • Last week’s data showed strains in the US, raising expectations of a December rate cut. In Europe, near-target inflation lowered expectations of an ECB cut while UK tax hikes weighed on growth forecasts. In Asia, China’s business activity slowed while India’s Q3 growth beat expectations. • Major global equity markets closed the week higher, US Treasury yields declined, and US dollar eased on growing expectation of a Fed rate cut, while crude oil prices edged up. • Two bearish crude oil sell-side reports were released last week calling for a big drop in oil prices in 2026 and 2027. If they are right, that should help bring down gasoline prices too – a welcome boon for the ‘non-EV’ US consumer (COTW) . Alongside a more likely December rate cut (88% probability vs 63% a month ago when equities peaked), a feelgood rally in risk assets to year-end gets some cause. • Lower rates probably matter more to gold than lower gas prices. Gold is close to confirming a technical “triangle” continuation pattern so a resumption of its core uptrend may be close (p6) . Data to 29 November 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Highlights * BoFA US government bond index, TR except correlations, which use the change in US 10-year Tsy yield. ** BoFA Japanese government bond index, TR except correlations, which use the change in the 10-year JGB yield Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council All about Gold The week in review • Gold rebounded, with the LBMA Gold Price PM closing the week 2. 9% higher at US$4,191/oz. Building on last week’s gain, gold’s y-t-d return has extended to 61% . • Our model shows that lower FX opportunity (+0 . 9%) and improving gold ETF inflows (+0 . 2) supported gold. And we believe rising geopolitical tensions also contributed (p11) . • Global gold ETF investors ramped up their buying and option traders‘ bullish bets also rose alongside the gold price (p22) . • Gold looks to be forming a fresh “triangle” continuation pattern similar to the one seen in Q4 2024 to suggest we may already be set for a resumption of its core uptrend (p6 & appendix) . The week ahead • Geopolitical risks should remain key to watch. With President Trump ordering the closure of airspace above and around Venezuela, geopolitical tensions between the two countries further escalated. Meanwhile, Ukraine has further discussed peace terms with the US to end the war with Russia; but Ukraine's hit on Russian tankers and Russia’s strike on Kyiv cloud the outlook. • The Fed’s Beige Book reported a slight dip in employment, but their move next week remains uncertain. Strong Black Friday sales point to resilient US consumption and may weigh on the Fed’s December decision. This week, the delayed September PCE, November ISM PMIs, and Powell’s speech will all be critical in shaping market expectations. | Gold market positioning, w/w change | | --- | | | See appendix for details of gold market option activity. Note that CFTC reports still delayed. [https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/comex-net-long-positioning](https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/comex-net-long-positioning) Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Last week in review US: Retail slows, inflation rises, jobs fall, Fed cut bets rise • Retail sales rose just 0. 2% m/m in September, below the 0.4% estimate and the smallest gain in four months, as higher prices weighed on consumer spending. • The PPI rose by 0.3% m/m in September after easing in August, driven by higher energy and food costs. • The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index in November dropped to the lowest since April, driven by concerns over inflation, trade, and politics. • The US ADP report for the four weeks ending November 8 shows private payrolls dropping an average of 1

FAQs

What were the key drivers of gold’s performance last week?

Gold rebounded and the week-to-date trend was supported by improving gold ETF inflows and lower FX opportunity, alongside rising geopolitical tensions. Investors increased buying and option traders’ bullish bets rose with the gold price.

How did global markets and rates move during the week?

Major global equity markets closed higher, US Treasury yields declined, and the US dollar eased as expectations grew for a Fed rate cut. Crude oil prices edged up over the week.

What factors are expected to matter most for the coming week?

Geopolitical risks are highlighted as key to watch, alongside uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Upcoming items such as delayed September PCE, November ISM PMIs, and Powell’s speech are described as critical for shaping market expectations.

Oct 12, 2026

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