VALIDATION OF THE ESA STATISTICAL RE-ENTRY MODELING TOOL DRAMA - ON GROUND-BASED OPTICAL DATA

Oct 13, 2026

Following the re-entry of the Chinese Long March (CZ-3B) launcher upper stage in 2020, Astros Solutions s.r.o., with Comenius University in Bratislava, reconstructs the event and refines physical re-entry models using the available dataset. A central goal is validating ESA’s DRAMA toolkit, which simulates re-entry trajectories, parent fragmentation, and on-ground risk. Comenius performs an in-depth physical analysis with adapted modeling for artificial materials, while Astros reconstructs the event using minimal initial inputs through DRAMA’s statistical approach.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryPresentations

FormatPDF

Pages8

Reading Time3 min

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Introduction

AMOS recordings

Data reduction and analysis

VALIDATION OF THE ESA STATISTICAL RE-ENTRY MODELING TOOL DRAMA ON GROUND-BASED OPTICAL DATA Matej Zigo((1)), Daniela Bartkov((2)), Ji ˇSilha((1,2)), Juraj Tth((2)), Stijn Lemmens((3)), and Beatriz Jillet((3))(1)Astros Solutions s.r.o., Nad Lu´kami 3141/35, 84 105, Bratislava, Slovakia (2) Faculty of Mathematics, Physics, and Informatics, Comenius University Bratislava, Mlynska dolina, 842 48 Bratislava, Slovakia (3) ESA/ESOC, Space Debris Office, Robert-Bosch-Strasse 5, DE-64293 Darmstadt, Germany ABSTRACT Following the re-entry of the Chinese Long March (CZ- 3B) launcher upper stage in 2020, Astros Solutions s.r.o., in collaboration with Comenius University in Bratislava, has embarked on an ambitious project to reconstruct the event and refine physical re-entry models using this extraordinary dataset. A major focus of this effort is validating the ESA’s DRAMA toolkit—a sophisticated statistical re-entry modeling tool capable of simulating re-entry trajectories, parent body fragmentation, and assessing onground risk. Leveraging their expertise in meteor physics and dynamics, Comenius University conducted an in-depth physical analysis, adapting their modeling tools to account for artificial materials. This enabled them to reconstruct the event with remarkable precision and extract critical parameters characterizing the re-entry. In parallel, Astros Solutions employed minimal initial data to set up input parameters for DRAMA, using its statistical models to generate a comprehensive event reconstruction. This work presents both methodologies in detail, showcasing a comparative analysis of DRAMA’s statistical reconstructions alongside the physical modeling results from the analysis of the event observations. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations of DRAMA through validation against purely physical methods, marking a significant step forward in re-entry event modeling and impact prediction. Keywords: Re-entry events, DRAMA, Modeling, AMOS, Space Debris. 1. INTRODUCTION Re-entry events are caused by artificial objects such as defunct satellites, upper stages, fragmentation debris, cargo ships, etc. These objects, after losing altitude due to atmospheric drag, re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere at high velocities, undergoing intense heating, ablation, and potential fragmentation. The physics behind these events is similar to that of meteors, which are commonly tracked by astronomers using all-sky cameras equipped with wide field-of-view lenses. The primary distinction between natural meteoroid entries and artificial object re-entries lies in their velocity, material composition, and expected survival of fragments upon impact. Ground-based optical systems play a crucial role in monitoring and analyzing re-entry events. All-sky cameras, initially designed for meteor detection, have proven tobe highly effective in capturing artificial object re-entries due to their ability to continuously survey large portions of the sky. The data collected from these systems enable precise trajectory reconstruction, fragmentation analysis, and impact location prediction. The AMOS (All-sky Meteor Orbit System) network, operated by Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius Univ. Bratislava (FMPI), is among the few ground-based astronomical systems capable of detecting and characterizing both meteoroid and artificial re-entry events. By leveraging multi-station observations, these systems provide valuable insights into the dynamics of uncontrolled reentries, contributing to the improvement of re-entry models and risk assessment strategies. On October 25th, several services, including Space[Track.org](Track.org), operated by the US 18th Space Defense Squadron (18th SDS), and the European Union Space Surveillance and Tracking network (EUSST), operated by the EUSST Consortium at the time, predicted that the CZ-3B (COSPAR no. 2008-055B, NORAD 33415) would decay that day, most likely above the Pacific Oc

FAQs

What is the main objective of the study?

Validate the ESA DRAMA statistical re-entry modeling toolkit using ground-based optical observations, comparing its reconstructions with purely physical modeling results.

What dataset and observational source are used?

Video recordings from the AMOS (All-sky Meteor Orbit System) network over the Hawaiian Islands captured the CZ-3B re-entry event.

How do the physical and DRAMA methodologies differ?

Comenius University adapts physical models to account for artificial materials and performs a detailed physical analysis, while Astros Solutions uses minimal initial data to run DRAMA and generate a statistical event reconstruction.

Oct 13, 2026

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