Dynamic Scanning for Emerging Food Safety Risks and Opportunities for the Food Industry - Learning from Established Horizon Scanning Systems and Proposing a Way Forward for New Zealand

Sep 11, 2026

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Dynamic scanning for emerging food safety risks and opportunities for the food industry examines how horizon scanning systems can be used to detect new threats and chances earlier. The report defines emerging risks, emerging opportunities, and related terminology, then outlines a study approach and presents New Zealand perspectives on current activities and a future national system. It extracts lessons from existing horizon scanning practices, synthesizes them into a proposed framework covering people, information, and computational tools, and concludes with next steps and success measures.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryGeneral

FormatPDF

Pages85

Reading Time30 min

AccessFree to download

Summary

1. Introduction

1.1 Horizon scanning

1.2 This project

2. Definitions

2.1 What is an emerging risk?

2.2 What is an emerging opportunity?

2.3 “Emerging issues” and other definitions

3. Study approach

4. Views from New Zealand

4.1 Current horizon scanning activities

4.2 Views on a future New Zealand horizon scanning system

4.2.1 Underlying principles

4.2.2 Scope and content

5. Learning from others

6. A framework for New Zealand

6.1 Proposed framework

6.1.1 The people

6.1.2 The information

6.1.3 The computational tools

6.2 Computational tools to support The framework

6.2.1 Computational Tool 1: Scanning of information sources

6.2.2 Computational Tool 2: Scanning of social media

6.2.3 Computational Tool 3: Workflow management and communication

7. Next steps

7.1 Short-term initiatives (year 1)

7.1.1 Feedback session

7.1.2 Early initiatives

7.2 Medium-term: Pilot project (years 1-2)

7.3 Longer term: Adoption of New Zealand horizon scanning framework (Year 2 onwards)

8. Measuring success

Dynamic scanning for emerging food safety risks and opportunities for the food industry: Learning from established horizon scanning systems and proposing away forward for New Zealand July 2018 Nicola King, Rosemarie Martin-Neuninger, Harvey Ho and Gale Brightwell ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The project team expresses our sincere thanks to all of the people who participated in the interviews, and to their organisations for contributing meaningfully to this project. We would also like to thank members of the NZFSSRC’s International Scientific Advisory Panel and Stakeholder Technical Advisory Group for their advice. We are also grateful to the key people within each organisation we consulted with for their time and efforts towards providing and reviewing information. Thanks to Rob Lake (ESR), Damien Mather (University of Otago) and Frederique Vanholsbeeck (University of Auckland) for additional support. PROJECT TEAM: Institute of Environmental Science and Research Nicola King Risk & Response Group Christchurch Science Centre University of Otago Dr Rosemarie MartinNeuninger Otago Business School Dunedin University of Auckland Dr Harvey Ho Bioengineering Institute Auckland AgResearch Dr Gale Brightwell Food Assurance Palmerston North CONTENTS SUMMARY .............................................................................................1 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................5 1.1 Horizon scanning.............................................................................................. 5 1.2 This project ....................................................................................................... 7 2. DEFINITIONS..................................................................................8 2.1 What is an emerging risk? ............................................................................... 8 2.2 What is an emerging opportunity? .................................................................. 9 2.3 “Emerging issues” and other definitions........................................................ 9 3. STUDY APPROACH .....................................................................11 4. VIEWS FROM NEW ZEALAND ....................................................12 4.1 Current horizon scanning activities .............................................................. 12 4.2 Views on a future New Zealand horizon scanning system .......................... 14 4.2.1 Underlying principles ............................................................................ 14 4.2.2 Scope and content................................................................................. 16 5. LEARNING FROM OTHERS.........................................................19 Finding 1. There is no right or wrong way to undertake horizon scanning....... 19 Finding 2. The first step is to identify the drivers of change.............................. 20 Finding 3. Efficient horizon scanning revolves around expert opinion............. 21 Finding 4. Coordination by an independent expert ensures independence and longevity .......................................................................................................... 21 Finding 5. It is crucial to have input from the right mix of experts .................... 22 Finding 6. Focussed data scanning is efficient................................................... 23 Finding 7. Some routine data scanning adds value ............................................ 23 Finding 8. Information sources should be well characterised ........................... 24 Finding 9. A horizon scanning system should be part of a network of like systems ........................................................................................................... 26 Finding 10. Emerging issues will rarely be supported by strong evidence ...... 26 Finding 11. Horizon scanning

FAQs

What does the report mean by an emerging risk and an emerging opportunity?

The report provides working definitions for both emerging risk and emerging opportunity, and also clarifies how “emerging issues” relate to other terms used in horizon scanning.

How does the study approach assess current and future horizon scanning in New Zealand?

It reviews existing horizon scanning activities in New Zealand and gathers views on what a future system should include, including underlying principles and the scope and content of that system.

What lessons from other horizon scanning systems are used to design the New Zealand framework?

The report distills findings such as the lack of a single “right way,” the importance of identifying change drivers, the role of expert input, efficient data scanning, source characterization, and the need for coordination, integration with end-users, and long-term resource commitment.

What are the next steps after proposing the New Zealand horizon scanning framework?

The report sets out short-term initiatives for year 1, a medium-term pilot project for years 1–2, and longer-term adoption of the framework from year 2 onward.

Sep 11, 2026

Upload by Logic