Copper charts to watch as prices slip below $13,000/t - Key indicators for copper near-term direction

Oct 13, 2026

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Analysis of copper market conditions as prices slip below $13,000/t, highlighting easing tightness supported earlier in the year. The report links price pressure to macro headwinds, softer physical demand, a stronger US dollar, and higher energy costs, alongside Middle East conflict triggering risk-off sentiment. It then outlines monitoring points including rising exchange warehouse inventories, increasing Chinese refined production, narrowing LME cash-to-3M spread, weakening US arbitrage demand, Yangshan import premium softness, and the copper-oil ratio.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryGeneral

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time3 min

AccessFree to download

Key charts to watch

Exchange warehouse inventories

Chinese refined copper production

LME cash-to-3M spread

US arbitrage window (COMEX-LME spread)

Yangshan copper premium

Copper-oil ratio

THINK Economic and financial analysis Article | 9 March 2026 COMMODITIES, FOOD & AGRI Copper charts to watch as prices slip below $13,000/t Several indicators suggest the tight conditions that supported copper prices in recent months may be starting to ease. Below are the key charts to watch Copper prices have come under pressure due to macro headwinds, softer physical demand, along with a stronger dollar and higher energy prices Copper prices have come under pressure in recent weeks as macro headwinds combine with softer physical demand signals. A stronger US dollar, rising energy prices and escalating conflict in the Middle East have triggered a broader risk-off move across financial markets, weighing on sentiment across cyclical assets. At the same time, rising exchange inventories, increasing refined output in China and weaker Chinese import demand suggest the tight market that supported prices in recent months maybe starting to unwind. Together, these developments suggest the balance in the copper market is beginning to shift. With prices slipping below the $13,000/t level, the following indicators will be key to assessing the near‑term direction for copper. Article | 9 March 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Exchange warehouse inventories Copper inventories are rising rapidly Source: LME, SHFE, COMEX, ING Research Visible copper stocks across major exchanges have risen sharply in recent months. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have recently hit a record high as physical demand softened in China, although stocks typically build seasonally around the Lunar New Year holiday. LME inventories, meanwhile, are approaching a 17-month high. The inventory build also reflects strong inflows into LME warehouses, driven by shifting regional pricing incentives. As the COMEX-LME spread narrows, the incentive to redirect metal to the US is fading. As these pricing signals normalise, metal is increasingly being redirected back into LME warehouses and other exchange stocks. With the holiday period now over, the direction of SHFE stocks will be important to watch. A decline in inventories would suggest Chinese demand is holding up at current price levels. Taken together, stocks across the main exchanges have risen by more than 500,000 tonnes since the start of the year, pointing to improving physical availability. The scale of the inventory build suggests supply tightness is easing after a period of historically low visible stocks that helped underpin prices in recent months. If the pace of builds continues, it would reinforce the view that copper market tightness is beginning to unwind. Chinese refined copper production Refined copper output in China is rising Article | 9 March 2026 2 THINK Economic and financial analysis Source: NBS, ING Research China’s smelters have continued to increase production despite tight concentrate markets and the collapse in treatment charges, supported by expanded smelting capacity and high operating rates. Refined copper output is expected to rise to almost 1.2 million tonnes this month, according toa poll of producers by Shanghai Metals Markets. That would be a 4.6% increase from February and a record high for the survey. China’s statistics bureau will release its output data for January and February later this month. The official figures saw refined output climb to a record of over 1.3 million tonnes in December. Rising domestic production reduces China’s reliance on refined imports and, when downstream demand softens, can contribute to inventory builds. Combined with weaker import demand signals, higher smelter output points to additional supply filtering into the global market. LME cash-to-3M spread Tightness in the prompt market is easing Source: LME, ING Research Article | 9 March 2026 3 THINK Economic and financial analysis The LME cash-to-3M spread – a key gauge of physical market conditions – has moved closer to neutral

FAQs

Why are copper prices coming under pressure as the article notes?

The article attributes pressure to macro headwinds, softer physical demand signals, a stronger US dollar, and rising energy prices, with broader risk-off sentiment across cyclical assets.

Which exchange inventory indicators does the report highlight?

It focuses on visible copper stocks rising across major exchanges, including record-high SHFE inventories and LME inventories approaching a 17-month high, and notes SHFE post-holiday direction as demand-sensitive.

How does the COMEX-LME arbitrage window affect the market outlook?

As the COMEX-LME spread narrows, the US market demand pull weakens, reducing incentives that previously tightened availability elsewhere and supporting exchange inventory builds outside the US.

Oct 13, 2026

Upload by Marglet