ANNEX 1: THEORY OF CHANGE, SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FRAMEWORK - How to Develop

Sep 1, 2026

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ANNEX 1 provides guidance on developing a Theory of Change (ToC) that articulates the broader dynamics and causal interactions expected to drive positive change toward strategic objectives. It explains how to ground assumptions in evidence from research, demonstrated experience, and situational analysis, and how the ToC supports monitoring and adaptive learning across political or institutional shifts, results, and partner capacity. It also outlines scenario analysis and planning steps to anticipate opportunities and threats in fragile contexts.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryPresentations

FormatDOCX

Pages6

Reading Time2 min

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How to develop a Theory of Change?

Key focus and purpose of the ToC

Evidence for assumptions and political economy considerations

How the ToC supports monitoring and learning

8 questions to guide your Theory of Change

How to conduct scenario analysis and planning

Purpose and relevance for fragile contexts

Seven steps for scenario analysis and planning

ANNEX 1: THEORY OF CHANGE, SCENARIOS AND RESULTS FRAMEWORK How to develop a Theory of Change? Theory of Change (ToC) (see Guidance Note on Adaptive Management page 19) includes broad and critical reflections on how the project or programme, together with other contextual enabling factors will achieve the wider outcomes and eventually the strategic objectives. The focus of the ToC is less on what Danida (or other development partners) will contribute to, and more on describing the broader dynamics and causal interplays that are expected to lead to positive change. The ToC is not “just” the narrative accompanying the results framework. It is a convincing theory and story of why it is possible to achieve changes (effects) desired by those involved and in charge, and the likely key factors of relative success or failure – including a reflection of the likely support to and resistance to the desired pathway of change (see political economy/stakeholder analysis in Standard Annex 1). The ToC will explain the role of MFA and other support in this wider picture, including the risks for the entire process and for the Danish assistance. The ToC transforms the insights from the context analysis to a prediction – more or less certain – about the change process, and the support to this process by e.g. MFA. The focus is first and foremost on the broader dynamics and causal interplays that are expected to lead to positive change, local leadership and local context dynamics and secondly what MFA (or other development partners) will contribute to. It is important to be very specific about the evidence underlying the assumptions to avoid avoiding brazen assumptions about political and managerial commitment and capabilities. Unrealistic assumptions often lead to poor, overoptimistic planning. The evidence underpinning the assumptions will come from research findings, demonstrated previous experience and from a solid situational analysis, including a political stakeholder analysis. The ToC will be in central during monitoring, not least with the purpose of learning about what has worked and adapt the project to changes in the context, in stakeholder positions or in partner capacity. Relevant issues for monitoring and learning in relation to the ToC include: The broader political and institutional context and possible shifts in scenarios. It is important to harvest evidence beyond the project/programme Results, both beyond the programme/project’s remit and as defined in the results framework Assumptions, which have been identified as important for the ToC 8 questions to guide your Theory of Change What is the political, economic, societal and institutional context? What is development problem or issue - and the desired transformation- that we want to contribute to, and how do we translate this into a development objective? Which are the main changes that will need to take place for this transformation to happen? Who – or which developments or factors - are the most important drivers of these changes? How and with which modalities and instruments will we contribute to the changes? Will we contribute to all of them? Are we a main contributor? Why do we think that the changes will happen? Which are the main conditions for them to happen; which other processes will need to take place? Are they in place or taking place, or will they? Why do we think so? Which are the main assumptions that will need to hold true for the changes to happen? What is the validity of the evidence underpinning these assumptions? Which are the main risk factors that may prevent the changes from taking place, or delay them, reduce their significance, etc.? Risks, as identified in the risk management framework. How to conduct scenario analysis and planning Scenario analysis and planning is most relevant for programming in fragile contexts and situations. The purpose of scenario planning is not to know the future but to help make better decisions during the formulation and impleme

FAQs

What is the purpose of a Theory of Change in this framework?

The ToC explains why desired changes are expected to occur by describing broader dynamics and causal interplays, including key factors behind success or failure. It also clarifies the role of MFA and other support, along with risks across the overall Danish assistance process.

How should assumptions in the ToC be supported with evidence?

Assumptions must be grounded in specific evidence to avoid unrealistic or overoptimistic planning. Evidence should come from research findings, demonstrated prior experience, and a solid situational analysis, including political stakeholder analysis.

What is scenario analysis and planning used for, and what are its main steps?

Scenario analysis and planning helps make better decisions during formulation and implementation by anticipating opportunities and threats, without trying to predict the future. The approach follows seven steps: identify major stakeholders, map risks, find key uncertainties, define extremes and check plausibility and consistency, assess linkages, rule out impossible scenarios, and conclude likely scenarios for the programme or project.

Sep 1, 2026

Upload by Jiven