世界银行东亚与太平洋经济更新 - 2020年10月版 - 从遏制走向复苏

Jul 19, 2026

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East Asia and Pacific Economic Update（2020年10月）聚焦疫情在区域内的差异化遏制成效与由此引发的经济冲击。文本概述以严格出行限制、测试策略与信息项目实现成功控制的做法，同时说明全球衰退加剧了依赖贸易与旅游的经济困境。报告评估援助扩大全面覆盖的难度、复苏前景的混合特征及长期包容性增长受损风险，并强调若不加以应对，未来增长可能被显著拖累。

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages4

Reading Time10 min

Overview

Successful containment

Economic distress

Relief

Mixed prospects for recovery

Adverse impact on inclusive growth

An integrated view of policy

Public Disc losure Authorized WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2020 FROM CONTAINMENT TO RECOVERY Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE, OCTOBER 2020 Overview Successful containment: The pandemic has so far been contained in parts of the EAP region, but not in Indonesia and the Philippines, and is still a threat to other countries, most recently Myanmar. The countries that contained the disease used a combination of stringent mobility restrictions, extensive testing-based strategies, and information programs to encourage precautionary behavior. Economic distress: The pandemic and efforts to contain its spread led to a significant curtailment of economic activity. These domestic difficulties were compounded by the pandemic-induced global recession which hit EAP economies that rely on trade and tourism hard. Country outcomes were generally related to how efficiently the disease was contained and how exposed countries were to external shocks. Output contracted by 1.8 percent in China in the first half of 2020 and by 4.0 percent on average in the rest of the region. The COVID-19 shock is expected to increase the number of people living in poverty in the region by 38 million in 2020—including 33 million who would have otherwise escaped poverty, and another 5 million who would be pushed back into poverty—using a poverty line of US$5 . 50/day (2011 PPP) . Relief: In response, EAP governments have committed nearly 5 percent of GDP on average to support public health systems, help households to smooth consumption, and help firms to avoid bankruptcy. But since these countries previously spent less than 1 percent of their GDP on average on social assistance, scaling up and implementation have proved difficult. In several countries, assistance has so far reached less than 25 percent of households whose incomes fell and only 10–20 percent of eligible firms. Reaching workers and firms in the informal sector has been most difficult. Continuing support in a protracted crisis would strain the narrow revenue base of most EAP countries. Mixed prospects for recovery: Successful containment of the disease in some countries is leading to a revival of domestic economic activity. But the EAP region’s economy is heavily dependent on the rest of the world, and global demand remains subdued. Trade will see a revival as global economic activity gradually resumes, but tourism is unlikely to recover soon. Though short-term capital has returned to the region, global uncertainty still inhibits domestic and foreign investment. The capacity of financially strained governments to stimulate the economies is also limited. The region is forecast to grow by only 0.9 percent in 2020. Whereas China is forecast to grow by 2.0 percent—because it has kept new infections at a low rate since early March, prioritized the revival of production, and increased public investment—the rest of the EAP region is projected to contract by 3.5 percent on average in 2020. Prospects for the region are brighter in 2021, with growth expected to be 7.9 percent in China and 5.1 percent in the rest of the EAP region, based on the assumption of continued recovery in the region and normalization of activity in major economies, linked to the possible arrival of a vaccine. However, for all economies in the region, output is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic projections for the next two years. The outlook is particularly dire for some highly exposed Pacific Island countries where output is projected to remain about 10 percent below precrisis levels by late-2021 . Adverse impact on inclusive growth: COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on inclusive longer-term growth by hurting investment, human capital, and productivity. Public and private indebtedness, along with worsening bank balance sheets and increased uncertainty, are likely to inhibit public an

FAQs

哪些因素帮助东亚与太平洋地区部分国家实现较成功的疫情遏制？

文本指出，这些国家综合运用严格的出行限制、基于检测的策略以及信息项目，引导人们采取预防行为。

疫情对该地区经济活动和增长带来了哪些主要影响？

疫情导致经济活动显著收缩，并叠加全球衰退冲击，尤其影响依赖贸易和旅游的经济体；报告给出了中国及其他地区的收缩幅度，并预期贫困人数将增加。

为什么报告认为复苏前景呈现“混合”状态？

部分国家遏制成功带动国内经济活动回升，但区域经济高度依赖外部，全球需求仍偏弱；旅游难以迅速恢复、投资也受不确定性压制，同时政府刺激空间有限。

Jul 19, 2026

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