What matters more? What matters less? Changes in the transition to post-secondary between two Toronto high school cohorts

Oct 15, 2026

Using data from two Toronto student cohorts entering high school five years apart, the study applies descriptive and multivariate methods to assess short-term change in predictors for four post-secondary pathways: confirming a university place, confirming a college place, applying but not being admitted, or not applying. A comparative cohort lens examines overlapping ascriptive and school-experience factors tied to unequal transitions across race, gender, immigration background, early achievement, attendance, and suspensions. Results show transition patterns shift even over short periods, highlighting cohort comparisons in urban settings.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages18

Reading Time45 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

What matters more? What matters less? Changes in the transition to post-secondary between two Toronto high school cohorts Karen Robson McMaster University Ashley Pullman University of ottawa Reana Maier University College Cork Paul Anisef York University Robert S. Brown Toronto District School Board Abstract Using data from two Toronto student cohorts that entered high school five years apart, this study uses descriptive and multivariate techniques to examine short-term change in the predictors of four possible pathways after high school: confirming a place in university, confirming a place in college, applying but no admittance, or not applying at all. From a comparative cohort perspective, the analysis considers various overlapping ascriptive and school experience factors that contribute to unequal transitions—from race, gender, and immigration background to early achievement, attendance, and suspensions. Even across a short time period, there is change in transition patterns. The results highlight that a comparative cohort approach provides insight into how the transition to post-secondary education in an urban environment changes even over relatively short periods of time. Keywords: Toronto, cohort, post-secondary, acceptance, race, gender Résumé À partir des données de deux cohortes d’élèves de Toronto ayant commencé l’école secondaire avec cinq ans d’intervalle, cette étude utilise les techniques descriptives et multivariables afin d’examiner le changement à court terme dans les prédicteurs de quatre parcours potentiels après le secondaire : une place confirmée dans une université, une place confirméedans un collège, une candidature déposée mais sans admission ou aucune candidature déposée. Dans une perspective decomparaison des cohortes, l’analyse prend en compte divers facteurs scolaires et autres qui se chevauchent et contribuent à des transitions inégales : de la race, du genre et des origines migratoires à la réussite précoce, en passant par l’assiduité et les renvois. On observe des changements dans les modèles de transition même sur une courte période. Les résultats démontrent qu’une approche comparative des cohortes permet de mieux comprendre comment la transition vers l’enseignement postsecondaire dans un environnement urbain évolue, même sur des périodes relativement courtes. Mots-clés : Toronto, cohortes, postsecondaire, acceptation, race, genre Introduction The rate of high school graduation and transitioning to post-secondary education (PSE) in Canada is at a historic high (Sweet & Anisef, 2005), with attainment rates often increasing, even across short time periods. The five-year high school graduation rate in Ontario increased from 69% to 87% between 2004 and 2016 (Rushowy, 2017) . In the Toronto District School Board (TDSB), 29% of the 2010–11 high school graduating class did not apply to PSE within two years of graduating—five years later, this rate dropped to 20% among the Canadian Journal of Higher Education | Revue canadienne d’enseignement supérieur 51:2 (2021) 2015–16 graduating class (Brown & Tam, 2017) . Even with this change, certain groups continue to have lower PSE transition rates—including students with special education needs (SEN) and certain social and racial groups—as relative differences remain even when overall attainment rates increase (Finnie et al. , 2011; Robson et al. , 2014) . For example, there was a 16 and 19 percentage point increase in the number of Latin American and Black students confirming PSE between the 2010–11 and 2015–16 graduating high school classes at the TDSB; however, because confirmation rates also increased for all other racial groups, Latin American and Black students continued to have lower PSE transition rates in the later period (Brown & Tam, 2017) . Comparing outcomes across student cohorts offers a holistic approach to understand if the predictors of transitioning from high school to PSE change over time. Prior studies co

FAQs

How does the study measure changes in post-secondary transition over time?

It uses descriptive and multivariate techniques on two Toronto student cohorts that entered high school five years apart, comparing short-term change in predictors for four post-secondary pathways.

What four post-secondary pathways are analyzed?

The study examines confirming a place in university, confirming a place in college, applying but no admission, and not applying at all.

Which types of factors are considered when comparing cohorts?

The analysis considers overlapping ascriptive and school-experience factors, including race, gender, immigration background, early achievement, attendance, and suspensions.

Oct 15, 2026

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