What Happens After Enrollment? - An Analysis of the Time Path of Racial Differences in GPA and Major Choice

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Angel

A study at a private university tracks how racial gaps in grade point averages evolve across students’ freshmen to senior years. The observed decline in the black–white GPA gap can suggest affirmative action effects, yet it hides two mechanisms: changes in grade variance and different grading standards across majors. After controlling for these factors, convergence largely disappears. The paper links any remaining convergence to shifts from STEM and economics toward humanities and social sciences, where courses are typically harder and more strongly graded.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages34

Reading Time1 h 26 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Background on racial achievement gaps

College preparation and potential catch-up

Main empirical focus

Time path of racial differences at Duke University

Interpreting evidence of convergence

Variance and course selection

What Happens After Enrollment? An Analysis of the Time Path of Racial Di􀀋erences in GPA and Major Choice 􀀃 Peter Arcidiaconoy Esteban M. Aucejoz Ken Spennerx August 9, 2012 Abstract At the private university we analyze, the gap between white and black grade point averages falls by half between the students' freshmen and senior year. This outcome could suggest that a􀀎rmative action policies are playing a key role to reduce racial di􀀋erences. However, this convergence masks two e􀀋ects. First, the variance of grades given falls across time. Hence, shrinkage in the level of the gap may not imply shrinkage in the class rank gap. Second, grading standards di􀀋er across courses in di􀀋erent majors. We show that controlling for these two features virtually eliminates any convergence of black/white grades. In fact, black/white gpa convergence is symptomatic of dramatic shifts by blacks from initial interest in the natural sciences, engineering, and economics to majors in the humanities and social sciences. We show that natural science, engineering, and economics courses are more di􀀎cult, associated with higher study times, and have harsher grading standards; all of which translate into students with weaker academic backgrounds being less likely to choose these majors. Indeed, we show that accounting for academic background can fully account for average di􀀋erences in switching behavior between blacks and whites. Keywords: Grade In􀀍ation, A􀀎rmative Action, Major Choice JEL Classi􀀌cation Codes: I2, I20, I23 􀀃 We thank Nathan Martin, Todd Stinebrickner, and seminar participants at Stanford Education school for comments. The Campus Life and Learning data were collected by A. Y. Bryant, Claudia Buchmann and Kenneth Spenner, Principal Investigators, with support provided by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and Duke University. They bear no responsibility for conclusions, recommendations and opinions found in this paper. y Department of Economics, Duke University and NBER; Email: [psarcidi@econ.duke.edu](psarcidi@econ.duke.edu) . z Department of Economics, Duke University. Email: [esteban.aucejo@duke.edu](esteban.aucejo@duke.edu) . x Department of Sociology, Duke University. Email: [kspen@soc.duke.edu](kspen@soc.duke.edu) . 1 Introduction Scholars have known since the Coleman Report in 1966 that the black white educational achievement gap is a robust empirical regularity. Since then, a proli􀀌c literature in economics has emerged trying to describe the evolution, causes and consequences of the racial test scores gap in primary and secondary schools. The main 􀀌ndings indicate that African American children enter kindergarten lagging behind their white counterparts, and these di􀀋erences are likely to persist for the foreseeable future (Neal 2006) . Cunha et al. (2006) argue that schooling raises measured ability, but does not close gaps between children from di􀀋erent racial and economic strata, and if anything widens them. Fryer and Levitt (2006), using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study database,􀀌nd that by the end of 􀀌rst grade, black children lost the equivalent of almost three months of schooling relative to whites. These trends continue through middle school with both Phillips and Chin (2004) and Hanushek and Rivkin (2006, 2009) documenting increases in the math achievement gap between blacks and whites through the eighth grade. The divergence in black/white outcomes at early ages is not surprising given disparities in resources between black and white families. It could also be the case that disparities may continue to grow in college due to di􀀋erences in parental resources, support, and information that also matter for performing well in college. However, the college environment is substantially di􀀋erent in that students are more separated from their families. Hence, it is also possible to expect, by taking students whose academic background is weak due to lack of resources but whose academic potential is str

FAQs

What happens to the black–white GPA gap after enrollment?

The study finds the GPA gap falls by about half between freshmen and seniors, suggesting possible convergence over time. However, that apparent improvement is driven by underlying changes that do not represent equalization of academic outcomes once controlled.

Why might GPA convergence be misleading?

Two effects mask the true picture: grade variance declines across time, and grading standards differ across courses in different majors. Controlling for these factors largely removes the apparent convergence.

How does major choice relate to racial differences in grades?

The analysis shows that black students’ shifts away from natural sciences, engineering, and economics toward humanities and social sciences help explain GPA convergence patterns. Those STEM/economics courses are harder, tied to higher study time, and graded more strictly.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Angel