What accounts for changes in the chances of being NEET in the UK? - SKOPE Working Paper No. 128 - July 2019

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret

NEET (not in employment, education and training) is a key indicator of youth labour-market vulnerability in the UK and Europe. This paper analyzes data for young people aged 16–29 from 1985 to 2015, tracking how the incidence and likelihood of being NEET change over time. It shows the overall NEET rate fell sharply since the 1980s but stabilised after 2000. Declines linked to fewer low-qualified leavers, fewer young parents, and improved women’s work options are offset since 2000 by rising mental ill health, slower educational progress, and recession scarring. Policy implications emphasize mental ill health and childcare costs rather than job availability alone.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages44

Reading Time1 h 51 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

1. Introduction

What accounts for changes in the chances of being NEET in the UK? SKOPE Working Paper No. 128, July 2019 Craig Holmes, Emily Murphy and Ken Mayhew Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford SKOPE, Department of Education, University of Oxford Editor’s Foreword SKOPE Publications This series publishes the work of the members and associates of SKOPE. A formal editorial process ensures that standards of quality and objectivity are maintained. Orders for publications should be addressed to the SKOPE Project Administrator, Department of Education, University of Oxford, 15 Norham Gardens, Oxford, OX2 6PY Research papers can be downloaded from the website: [www.skope.ox.ac.uk](www.skope.ox.ac.uk) ISSN 1466-1535 © 2019 SKOPE Abstract The number of young people who are not in employment, education and training – NEET, as this group has become widely known as – is a key indicator on the state of youth labour markets and opportunities for young people more generally. The persistence and, in the years following the global financial crisis, growth of this group of young people is a major concern for policy makers in Europe for both its short term and long term consequences. However, it is a diverse group as people can be NEET for many reasons, and so understanding the importance of these reasons is crucial for targeting policy responses. This paper looks at data on young people between the age of 16 and 29 in the UK, tracks how the incidence or chance of being NEET has changed over the period between 1985 and 2015, and highlights which characteristics are associated with a higher chance of being NEET and how the importance of these drivers has changed over time. We show that the overall NEET rate has fallen considerably since the 1980s, but has remained largely the same since 2000. Over the past thirty years, the reduction in young people leaving school with few or no qualifications, fewer young people having children and improvements in the chances for young women to work alongside childcare responsibilities have all put a downward pressure on NEET rates, although penalties for women with childcare are still large. Since 2000, an increase in the incidence of mental ill health has acted in the opposite way, while a slower rate of improved educational attainment and some scarring from the 2008-9 recession has also contributed to the persistence of NEETs. We argue that the current policy focus on skills and work incentives for reducing the number of NEETs in the UK misses two key obstacles – mental ill health and child care. Policies to either tackle increasing mental ill health rates or facilitate (where possible and desirable) some form of labour market participation specific to sufferers of mental ill health could be expected to have some large effects on their own. Moreover, the government could also look to reduce childcare costs and facilitate flexible working for those who want to balance care with work. That said, we find no relationship between the availability of part-time work in a region and NEET rates, so the solution here is unlikely to be as simple as creating more jobs – of any type and quality – which offer a smaller number of hours. 4 1. Introduction The number of young people who are not in employment, education and training – NEET, as this group has become widely known as – is a key indicator on the state of youth labour markets and opportunities for young people more generally. The term NEET can be seen as capturing vulnerability among youth, referring to both those who are unemployed and seeking work, as well as those who are economically inactive and hidden by an exclusive focus on unemployment statistics (Furlong, 2006) . The persistence and, in the years following the global financial crisis, growth of this group of young people is a major concern for policy makers in Europe (O’Reilly et al., 2015), not least because of fears that periods of unemployment or inactivity early in

FAQs

What time period and age group does the paper analyze for NEET changes in the UK?

The paper examines young people aged 16 to 29 in the UK, tracking changes from 1985 to 2015.

What factors explain the fall in NEET rates since the 1980s and the later lack of progress after 2000?

The reduction is linked to fewer young people leaving school with few or no qualifications, fewer young people having children, and improved chances for young women to work alongside childcare. After 2000, rising mental ill health and slower educational attainment improvements, along with 2008–9 recession scarring, help sustain NEET levels.

According to the paper, which two major obstacles should policy focus on to reduce NEET numbers?

The paper argues that current focus on skills and work incentives misses two key obstacles: mental ill health and child care.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret