Weekly Outlook - 17 - 21 August 2026 - Singapore - NODX in focus, National Day Rally on 23 Aug

Oct 28, 2026

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Weekly Outlook for 17-21 August 2026 covering key Singapore and Asia-Pacific developments, with emphasis on scheduled economic data releases, central bank meetings, and geopolitics. Highlights include Singapore’s July non-oil domestic exports release and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s third National Day Rally speech on 23 Aug, alongside regional focuses such as Bank Indonesia policy deliberations and China’s LPR fixings. The note also outlines major Thailand, Taiwan, China, Australia, Malaysia, Korea, and PMI-related data catalysts and expectations for market reaction.

LanguageEnglish

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Reading Time13 min

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Weekly Outlook

Singapore - NODX in focus, National Day Rally on 23 Aug

Key Asia-Pacific Economies

US and Developed Economies

Friday, 14 August 2026 Alvin Liew [Alvin.LiewTS@uobgroup.com](Alvin.LiewTS@uobgroup.com) Global Economics & Markets Research [Email:](Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com)[ ](Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com)[GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com](Email: GlobalEcoMktResearch@uobgroup.com) [URL:](URL: www.uob.com.sg/research)[ ](URL: www.uob.com.sg/research)[www.uob.com.sg/research](URL: www.uob.com.sg/research) Weekly Outlook 17 – 21 August 2026 SINGAPORE NODX in focus, National Day Rally on 23 Aug 1) The key data release will be the Jul non-oil domestic exports on Mon (17 Aug, 8:30am SGT, Bloomberg est. 24.5% y/y, UOBest. 22.8% y/y from 20.7% y/y in Jun) . 2) Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will deliver his third National Day Rally (NDR) speech on 23 Aug (Sun, starting 6:45pm SGT) at the Institute of Technical Education (ITE) Headquarters at Ang Mo Kio. The NDR is seen as the most important political speech of the year, and during the National Day message (8 Aug) PM Wong had made known that a “major review” of how the government supports Singaporean families not just at the point of marriage and parenthood, but throughout their life’s journey, is underway, and markets will pay attention to any new key policy announcements relating to this major review. KEY ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIES Holidays in Asia, BI decision, China’s LPR fixing, 2Q GDP from Thailand, China’s remaining Jul data 1) Holidays in Asia-Pacific – It is Liberation Day holiday in North & South Korea on Sat (15 Aug) with the South Korean markets to be closed on Mon (17 Aug) in observance of the holiday. India will celebrate their Independence Day on 15 Aug (Sat) . Indonesia will celebrate Independence Day on Mon (17 Aug) while Philippines will celebrate Ninoy Aquino Day on Fri (21 Aug) . 2) There is one key monetary policy meeting and one rate fixing announcement taking place in Asia-Pacific this week: • Bank Indonesia (BI) (19 Aug, 3:20pm SGT) . According to the Bloomberg survey (as of 14 Aug), all 6 economists polled, expect the BI to keep its policy BI rate unchanged at 5.75% but our economist, Enrico Tanuwidjaja , is expecting a 25-bpshike to 6.00%, With risks to the rupiah’s trajectory, divided market expectations of US Fed’s policy direction, and upside risks to global inflation forecasts amid rising energy prices, Enrico believes BI is likely to remain focused on anchoring currency stability and inflation expectations. As such, we expect two 25-bps hikes in 3Q26 and a final 25-bps in the 4Q26, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 6.50% by end 2026. • China’s Aug 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) fixings (20 Aug , 9am SGT) and according to the Bloomberg poll (as of 14 Aug), all 12 analysts surveyed expect the 1-Year LPR and the 5-Year LPR fixing to be unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively. This is also the view shared by our economist, Ho Woei Chen. She noted following the Politburo meeting on 30 Jul, the PBOC reaffirmed its pledge to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy in 2H26 , with an emphasis on strengthening counter-cyclical support. Policymakers appear focused on maximizing the effectiveness of existing measures rather than introducing broad-based new stimulus. Looking ahead, moderating inflationary pressures and the re-emergence of growth headwinds could create scope for additional monetary easing, including policy rate reductions and further cuts to banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) . For now, our baseline view remains that the PBOC will keep the benchmark 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.40% through 2026. However, we see room for a 25-50 bps reduction in the RRR, which would help inject liquidity into the banking system, support credit expansion, and lower banks' funding costs. 3) The key Asia-Pacific data releases include: ▪ Thailand’s 2Q GDP will be released by NESDC on Mon (17 Aug 10:30am SGT , Bloomberg est. -0.6% q/q SA, 1.7% y/y, UOB est. 1.2% y/y from 0.7% q/q, 2.8

FAQs

What are the main Singapore catalysts in this week’s outlook?

The note highlights Singapore’s July non-oil domestic exports release on Monday (17 Aug) and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s third National Day Rally speech on 23 Aug.

Which Asia-Pacific central bank and rate-fixing items are covered?

It covers Bank Indonesia’s policy decision and China’s 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) fixings, including expectations for policy settings and monetary stance.

What types of economic data releases are listed for Asia-Pacific countries during 17-21 Aug?

It lists GDP, export orders, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, home prices, wage and employment figures, CPI and trade, plus regional PMI and price indices scheduled across the week.

Oct 28, 2026

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