WBG Governor's Statement No. 5 - Statement by the Hon. PAWEL SZALAMACHA - Temporary Alternate Governor - October 14, 2022

Jul 19, 2026

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WBG Governor's Statement No. 5 (October 14, 2022) presents Pawel Szalamacha’s remarks to the 2022 World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings on the macroeconomic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It outlines supply-chain disruptions, higher commodity prices, energy and food crises, and weakened confidence affecting Poland and global conditions. The statement describes Poland’s fiscal and social measures, refugee-related spending, defense bill-driven military outlays, and updated GDP and inflation outlooks, including the role of NBP monetary policy tightening.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

AccessFree to download

WBG Governor's Statement No. 5

Context of global challenges and Ukraine war

Poland’s economic impact and policy responses

Inflation dynamics and monetary policy actions

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized WBG Governor's Statement No. 5 October 14, 2022 Statement by the Hon. PAWEL SZALAMACHA, Temporary Alternate Governor of the Bank for THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND Statement by the Hon. Pawel Szalamacha, Temporary Alternate Governor of the Bank for the Republic of Poland on behalf of the Hon. Adam Glapinski, Governor of the Bank for the Republic of Poland As we gather at the 2022 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, we continue to face global challenges of immense scale and scope. The unprecedented test for the international community and its ability to take joint action continues. Against this background, I sincerely hope that this year’s discussions in Washington will provide a further boost to our joint response and strengthen the global solidarity. Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified military invasion of Ukraine occurred when the world’s economies were still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis. The war aggravated the supply chain disruptions and additionally strengthened the rise of commodity prices, impacting real disposable incomes of households and production costs. It has brought along the energy and food crises, while putting at risk the development gains of the past decades. Moreover, the uncertainty related to the war has dampened business confidence, adding to the darkening prospects for consumption, investment and international trade. These implications have a negative impact throughout the global economy as well as on individual countries, including Poland. The strong negative supply shock triggered by the Russian aggression against Ukraine constitutes a significant headwind for economic activity in our country contributing to a slowdown in GDP growth. In the coming quarters the war is forecast to continue to negatively affect economic growth in Poland, both directly – by limiting consumer spending and corporate investment – and indirectly through the expected economic slowdown in the euro area. Yet, at the same time, the scale of the decline in domestic GDP growth will be mitigated by accommodative fiscal policy and continued spending related to an unprecedented inflow of refugees from Ukraine (an estimated 1.0-1.3 million Ukrainian war refugees are currently sheltered in Poland) . The Polish government has introduced a number of measures to mitigate the impact of high energy commodity prices on households, inter alia tax cuts on energy sources were introduced as part of the Anti-Inflation Shield (reduction of the VAT and excise duty rates), as well as social benefits that are intended to limit the impact of rising prices of coal, heating oil and liquid gas on the budgets of households. The overall impact of these measures may be estimated at ca 2% of GDP in 2022. As a major destination of refugees from Ukraine, Poland has spent 0.5% of GDP on support for immigrants. Another 0.5% has been allocated to other forms of aid for Ukraine (humanitarian, financial and military), making Poland one of the biggest donors to Ukraine. Furthermore, the new defence bill (Homeland Defence Act) enacted in March 2022 envisages a substantial increase in military spending from 2023 (from 2.3% to 3% of GDP) . Consequently, despite the significant headwinds, Polish GDP should increase but at a slower pace. According to the latest Narodowy Bank Polski projection published in July, GDP growth will ease from 4.7% in 2022 to 1.4% in 2023. Due to the nature of the shock related to the war in Ukraine, slower economic growth will be accompanied by heightened inflation (17 .2% in September 2022 according to the flash estimate) . Given the waning demand pressure, inflation developments will critically depend on administrative prices of electricity, heat and gas, as well as decisions regarding the potential extension of some measures introduced by the government to shield households from the strong increase in cost of living. NBP

FAQs

What global conditions are highlighted as the backdrop for the statement?

The statement links the 2022 Annual Meetings to large-scale global challenges, emphasizing the shock from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurring while economies were still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis.

How does the statement describe the impact of the war on Poland’s economy?

It explains that the strong negative supply shock and uncertainty are expected to slow Poland’s GDP growth, with effects both directly through consumer spending and corporate investment and indirectly through a euro-area slowdown.

Which policy measures and projections are mentioned for Poland?

The statement cites measures to mitigate high energy prices under an Anti-Inflation Shield, refugee-support spending, and the defense bill increasing military spending from 2023, alongside forecasts that GDP growth eases in 2023 while inflation rises with administrative price decisions influencing the path back to target.

Jul 19, 2026

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