Views of the Uncertainties of Climate Change - A Comparison of High School Students and Specialists

Oct 15, 2026

Scientific uncertainty shapes how climate change is understood and how public policy decisions are made. The article reports interviews with high school students and specialists, exploring why scientists disagree and whether action is required now. Comparative findings highlight pitfalls in students’ responses while also showing how they can use non-specialized knowledge and decision strategies effectively. Educational preparation should address both certain science and the nature and reasons for remaining uncertainties.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Interviews and comparison

Public policy questions and uncertainty

Educational implications for student judgment

Research on lay understanding and questionnaire findings

Views of the Uncertainties of Climate Change: A Comparison of High School Students and Specialists Stephen Adams, California State University, USA Abstract Scientific uncertainty permeates the issue of climate change, and public policy decisions must be made in the context of this uncertainty. This article describes interviews with high school students and specialists (scientists and policy analysts) about reasons for scientific disagreement about climate change and whether action is needed now. A comparison of these two groups suggests both pitfalls in the responses of the students and ways in which they effectively made use of non-specialized knowledge or even utilized strategies similar to those of specialists. Educational efforts to prepare students to make judgments about climate change should include not only the science that is certain, but should also address the nature of the uncertainties, reasons for scientific disagreement, and strategies for making decisions given the uncertainties. Résumé L’incertitude scientifique entoure l’enjeu du changement climatique. Les décisions en matière de politiques publiques doivent donc être prises dans ce contexte. Cet article décrit desentrevues avec des élèves du secondaire et des spécialistes (scientifiques et analystes des politiques) portant sur ledésaccord scientifique à propos du changement climatique et quant à l’opportunité d’agir maintenant. Une comparaison deces deux groupes révèle des pièges tant dans les réponses des élèves que dans leur façon d’utiliser des connaissances non spécialisées ou même des stratégies semblables à celles des spécialistes. Les efforts pédagogiques en vue de préparer les élèves à exprimer un jugement sur le changement climatique devraient inclure une science certaine. Ils devraient aussi aborder la nature des incertitudes, les raisons du désaccord 58 Canadian Journal of Environmental Education, 6, Spring 2001 scientifique et les stratégies pour prendre des décisions compte tenu des incertitudes. The publication of the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) signaled a broad agreement among climate scientists that anthropogenic climate change is underway and may pose serious consequences in future decades (Houghton, Meira Filho, Callander, Harris, Kattenburg, & Maskell, 1996) . Nonetheless, the thorny questions raised by climate science (e.g., projected regional temperature increases, changes in precipitation patterns, responses of ecosystems) resist certain answers. Although the forthcoming Third Assessment Report of the IPCC reflects recent progress in reducing some uncertainties, considerable uncertainties remain (IPCC, 2001) . Meanwhile, reports of the scientific developments in the mass media may tend to amplify uncertainty (e.g., by giving disproportionate attention to extreme scientific views) or even underrepresent uncertainties (e.g., by overemphasizing scientists’“mid-range estimates”) . For the public, making an assessment of how to respond to the threat of climate change requires, in part, assessing these uncertainties. This requires that the public understand what scientists are relatively certain about and what they are relatively uncertain about. Assessing climate change also requires that the public better understand the nature of scientific controversy (McBean & Hengeveld, 2000). One of the most basic policy questions that must be answered is whether action should be taken now or whether more research is needed. If modifications to the human activities that exacerbate climate change are to be taken, a related question concerns how substantial a change is needed. As an educational issue, it is important that high school students graduate with the background to help them make informed judgments about such questions involving uncertainty. This educational goal is especially appropriate considering that today’s students are long-term stakeholders in the outcomes of decisio

FAQs

What is the central focus of the interviews described in the article?

The interviews compare high school students with specialists to examine reasons for scientific disagreement about climate change and whether action should be taken now.

What does the comparison reveal about students’ responses?

It shows pitfalls in how students respond, but also indicates ways they use non-specialized knowledge and decision strategies effectively.

How should educational efforts be designed according to the article?

They should include not only the science that is certain, but also the nature of uncertainties, the reasons behind scientific disagreement, and strategies for making decisions despite uncertainty.

Oct 15, 2026

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