Validity of the SAT for Predicting Second-Year Grades - Research and Development Statistical Report No. 2011-1 - Executive Summary

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret

This report examines the validity of the SAT for predicting two second-year outcomes for first-time, first-year college students entering in fall 2006. A national consortium gathered coursework, grades, and retention data from 66 institutions for 109,153 students, yielding a final analytic sample of 80,958. Results show strong correlations between SAT and second-year cumulative GPA and second-year GPA. For many subgroups, SAT outperforms high school grades alone, while combined SAT and high school grades provide the strongest prediction.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages30

Reading Time1 h 16 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Study Sample and Data Collection

Outcomes Assessed

Key Findings

Definitions

References

Tables and Results

Table 1 - Institutional Characteristics

Table 2 - Descriptive Statistics

Table 3 - Correlation Matrix

Statistical Report Research and Development Statistical Report No. 2011-1 Validity of the SAT for Predicting Second-Year Grades: 2006 SAT Validity Sample Krista D. Mattern & Brian F. Patterson The College Board The College Board New York, NY Executive Summary The College Board formed a research consortium with four-year colleges and universities to build a national higher education database with the primary goal of validating the revised SAT, which consists of three sections: critical reading (SAT-CR), mathematics (SAT-M) and writing (SAT-W) , for use in college admission. The first sample examined was the first-time, first-year students entering college in fall 2006, with 110 institutions providing students’ first-year coursework, grades, and retention to the second-year data. The results of the validity of the SAT for predicting first-year grade point average are summarized in the two College Board Research Reports, “Validity of the SAT for Predicting First-Year College Grade Point Average”(Kobrin et al. , 2008) and “Differential Validity and Prediction of the SAT”(Mattern et al. , 2008) . The following year, participating colleges and universities were invited to provide second-year performance data for these students. For the second-year , a total of 66 of the original 110 institutions provided data . Please see the Appendix for a list of participating institutions. This report presents the validity of the SAT for predicting two second-year outcomes: (1) second-year cumulative GPA (2nd Yr Cum GPA) , and (2) second-year grade point average (2nd Yr GPA) . Similar to the results for first-year grade point average (1st Yr GPA) , the SAT is strongly correlated with second year outcomes. For many significant subgroups, such as ethnic minority students and female students, the SAT was in fact a better predictor of 2nd Yr Cum GPA and 2nd Yr GPA than were high school grades alone. However, for all students, SAT score in combination with high school grades was the best predictor of these second year outcomes since both measures provide incrementally validity over each other. For example, even within HSGPA levels, there is still a strong positive relationship between SAT and 2nd Yr Cum GPA and 2nd Yr. Detailed results are provided below. Definitions 1. First-year grade point average (1st Yr GPA)– Average of grades earned in courses during the student’s first year of college. 2. Second-year grade point average (2nd Yr GPA)– Average of grades earned in courses during the student’s second year of college. 3. Second-year cumulative grade point average (2nd Yr Cum GPA)– Average of grades earned in courses during the student’s first and second years of college. References College Board. (2006) . 2006 College-Bound Seniors: Total Group Profile Report. New York, NY: The College Board. Kobrin, J. L. , Patterson, B. F. , Shaw, E. J. , Mattern, K. D. , & Barbuti, S. M. (2008) . Validity of the SAT® for predicting first-year college grade point average (College Board Research Rep. No. 2008-5) . New York, NY: The College Board. Mattern, K. D. , Patterson, B. F. , Shaw, E. J. , Kobrin, J. L. , & Barbuti, S. M. (2008) . Differential validity and prediction of the SAT® (College Board Research Rep. No. 2008-4) . New York, NY: The College Board. Table 1 Comparison of the 2006 Sample with Second Year Data (k=66) and the Target Population | Institutional Characteristic | | Percentage | | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. Region | Midwest | 11% | | | Mid-Atlantic | 21% | | | New England | 21% | | | South | 12% | | | Southwest | 11% | | | West | 24% | | Control | Public | 39% | | | Private | 61% | | Selectivity | Admits under 50% | 18% | | | Admits 50 to 75% | 58% | | | Admits over 75% | 24% | | Size | Small | 20% | | | Medium | 41% | | | Large | 21% | | | Very large | 18% | Note. k = number of institutions = 66. Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Institution sizes are categorized by the number of

FAQs

What SAT outcomes are analyzed for predicting second-year performance?

The report evaluates two second-year outcomes: second-year cumulative GPA (2nd Yr Cum GPA) and second-year GPA (2nd Yr GPA).

How was the study sample constructed and why are institutions important?

Participating colleges and universities provided second-year performance data for students from the original 2006 sample. Second-year data were supplied by 66 of 110 institutions, and analyses exclude students missing valid inputs, producing a final sample size of 80,958.

How do SAT scores relate to second-year grades compared with high school grades?

SAT is strongly correlated with second-year outcomes. For some significant subgroups, SAT predicts second-year GPA and cumulative GPA better than high school grades alone, and for all students, the combination of SAT scores with high school grades provides the best prediction.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret