Uzbekistan - 联合世界银行-IMF债务可持续性分析 - 2020年5月

Jul 19, 2026

Uzbekistan: Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis provides an assessment of external and overall debt distress risk under a 2020 baseline amid the COVID-19 shock. The analysis finds low risk of both external and overall debt distress, unchanged from the May 2019 DSA, with key indicators staying below relevant thresholds in the baseline and most stress scenarios. Revisions show deterioration in 2020 and gradual recovery, driven by weaker growth, a larger fiscal deficit, and a widening current account deficit.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages11

Reading Time28 min

AccessFree to download

宏观前景与关键修订

增长、财政赤字与经常账户

风险评级与判断

外债与总体债务困境风险

财政与融资策略

2020年资金来源与借款结构

压力测试与情景冲击

2022年外债指标短暂违约

风险缓释因素与数据覆盖

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis1 May 2020 Prepared jointly by the staffs ofthe International Development Association (IDA) And the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Approved by Marcello Estevão (IDA), Thanos Arvanitis and Chris Lane (IMF) 1 This joint World Bank/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) has been prepared in the context of the 2020 request for emergency financing from the IMF. The macro framework underlying this DSA is the same as that included in the staff report of the 2020 RCF and RFI request which reflects recent global and domestic developments. The current macroeconomic framework reflects currently available information. However, updates with respect to the economic impact and policy response to the COVID- 19 crisis are rapidly evolving and risks are tilted to the downside. | Uzbekistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis2 | | | --- | --- | | Risk of External Debt Distress | Low3 | | Overall Risk of Debt Distress | Low | | Granularity in the Risk Rating | Not applicable | | Application of Judgment | No | | Macroeconomic projections | The revisions present a deterioration in 2020 and a gradual recovery afterwards.
i) In the near term, real GDP growth is projected to slowdown compared to the last DSA due to the COVID-19 outbreak (1.5 percent in 2020 compared to 6 percent in the 2019-DSA) . Long-term growth was revised to 5 percent compared to 6 percent in the previous DSA.
ii) The overall fiscal deficit is projected to increase in 2020 (5½ percent of GDP compared to 1¾ percent of GDP in the 2019-DSA) and over the medium term it is projected to converge to around 2 percent of GDP close to the values in the previous DSA.
iii) The current account deficit is expected to reach 9½ percent of GDP (versus 4½ percent of GDP in the 2019-DSA) in
2020. Over the medium term, the current account deficit is expected to converge to 4¼ percent of GDP as in the previous DSA. | | Financial Strategy | In 2020, the additional fiscal needs will be financed with IFI funding.4 Bilateral and multilateral funding will continue having a key role in the near and medium terms, but foreign and domestic commercial borrowing will gradually increase. | | Stress test | The DSA shows that debt ratios are robust to a wide range of adverse shocks. In the 2020-baseline most of the macro variables are already 1 standard deviation below the previous period, suggesting the stress test is performed over a “stress” baseline. This is a more rigorous stress test than in normal conditions. However risks are higher in the current DSA and they are reflected in a single short-lived (1 year) breach of PV of PPG external debt-to-exports in 2022 under the most extreme stress test (exports shock) . The breach reaches 5 percentage points. | | Realism tools flagged | The tool flags the hike in public debt in 2019, which was attributed to large unanticipated issuance of SOE-guarantees. 5 This risk is mitigated as the authorities have set a cap on new commitments on PPG external debt. | | Mechanical risk rating under the external DSA | Low | | Mechanical risk rating under the public DSA | Low | 2 Debt coverage is the same as the 2019 DSA, which includes central government, state and local governments, extra-budgetary funds, social security, and SOEs’ guaranteed debt. Non-guaranteed debt of SOEs is not covered in the DSA due to data limitations. Non-guaranteed debt of SOEs accounts for about 7 percent of GDP. The authorities are working to improve statistics with technical support from the IMF. 3 Uzbekistan’s Composite Indicator score is 3.21 based on October 2109 WEO and CPIA 2018 and its debt carrying capacity is strong as in the 2019 DSA. 4 Including World Bank budget support. The World Bank is supporting the Government’s response to the COVID crisis thr

FAQs

这份联合债务可持续性分析得出的总体债务困境风险结论是什么？

分析结论为外部债务困境风险低、总体债务困境风险低，且与2019年5月的DSA保持一致。

COVID-19如何影响了宏观预测与债务评估的关键变量？

报告指出，2020年增长放缓、财政赤字扩大、经常账户赤字上升，反映出相较上一期DSA的恶化趋势，并在随后出现逐步恢复。

压力测试的主要发现是什么，是否出现过阈值违约？

压力测试显示债务指标对多种不利冲击具有稳健性，但在最极端的压力情景下，2022年PPG外债到出口的现值指标会出现为期1年的短暂违约，违约幅度为5个百分点。

Jul 19, 2026

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