Using Morphological Analysis for Evaluating Preparedness for Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials - Adapted from an Article Presented at the 4th International Conference for Local Authorities

Oct 3, 2026

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The text describes a computer-based evaluation approach for assessing Swedish rescue services’ preparedness for accidents involving hazardous materials and for terrorist actions involving intentional release of chemical agents. It explains why such incidents are rare yet consequential for life and the environment, limiting operational experience. A method based on general morphological analysis structures multi-dimensional problem spaces and scenario inputs, supported by MA/Casper, to identify deficiencies and iteratively build consistent “if-then” outcome spaces using analysis and synthesis phases.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages6

Reading Time15 min

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Introduction

The MA/Casper process

The Instrument for use by the Rescue Services

Using Morphological Analysis for evaluating Preparedness for Accidents Involving Hazardous Materials Adapted from an article presented at the 4th International Conference for Local Authorities, Shanghai, November, 2002. Tom Ritchey, Maria Stenström and Håkan Eriksson Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) SE-172 90 Stockholm Downloaded from the Swedish Morphological Society [www.swemorph.com](www.swemorph.com) Introduction Fortunately, accidents involving hazardous materials, e.g. dangerous chemical substances, are relatively rare in Scandinavia. When they do occur, however, the consequences – both for life and the environment – can be serious. Municipal and county rescue services must therefore maintain adequate preparedness for those types of accidents, which can occur within their geographical areas of responsibility. However, the fact that such accidents are rare makes it difficult for rescue services to gain sufficient experience and routine, as is the case with fire fighting or traffic accidents. One way to increase preparedness is through theoretical evaluations and with the help of scenarios, in order to identify potential deficiencies and to see where improvements can best be made. For this purpose, FOI – the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Stockholm – was commissioned by the Swedish National Rescue Services Agency to develop a computer-based instrument for evaluating Swedish Rescue Services' preparedness for accidents involving hazardous materials, and also for terrorist actions involving the intentional release of chemical agents. The evaluation instrument was developed using the method of morphological analysis, supported by MA/Casper (Computer Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine), both of which will be described below. An expert group consisting of nine experienced fire marshalsand fire engineers from different parts of Sweden, together with the authors, developed the prototype during 1999 and 2000. The MA/Casper process General Morphological analysis (MA) is a method for structuring and analysing multi-dimensional technical, social and political problem complexes, which do not lend themselves to quantification. It can be used for developing scenarios, for defining and analysing complex policy spaces and for assessing the relationship between ends and means in strategic planning. MA was developed in order to facilitate group work and co-operation both between different scientific disciplines and between actors in different sectors and organisational levels in society. The end result of such a morphological analysis is a morphological field which describes the total problem complex, and which can be used as an "if-then" laboratory in order to test various inputs against possible outputs. Because of the complexity of the process, and the many thousands of potential configurations mapped out in even relatively small morphological fields, MA is difficult to employ without computer support. For this reason, FOA has developed Casper: Computer Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine1, which supports the entire MA-process. 1 MA/Casper is a proprietary software package developed by the Swedish Defence Research Agency. For further information, contact Dr. Tom Ritchey at: [ritchey@foi.se](ritchey@foi.se) MA goes through cycles of analysis and synthesis in a number of iterative steps. The iterative steps are: Analysis phase: Define the problem complex in terms of variables and variable conditions. Step 1: Identify the dimensions, parameters or variables, which best define the essential nature of the problem complex or scenario. This is no trivial task and should be given ample time, depending on the nature of the problem. One should work with no more than 6-7 variables at a time. Step 2: For each variable, define a range of relevant, discrete values or conditions, which the variable can express. The variable and variable-condition matrix is the morphological field--an n-dimens

FAQs

Why do Swedish municipal and county rescue services need preparedness evaluations for hazardous-material accidents?

Because such accidents, though relatively rare, can still have serious consequences for life and the environment, and preparedness must be maintained within their local responsibility areas.

What is general morphological analysis used for in this work?

It structures and analyzes multi-dimensional technical, social, and political problem complexes that cannot be easily quantified, supporting scenario development and testing inputs against outputs.

How does the MA/Casper method help produce usable evaluation outcomes?

It runs iterative analysis and synthesis steps, checks internal consistency of variable conditions, and reduces the solution space by discarding outcomes with contradictions.

Oct 3, 2026

Upload by Patrick