Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scores in Making College Admission Decisions - Abstract

Oct 9, 2026

Ample correlational evidence indicates that high school GPA is usually better than admission test scores in predicting first-year college GPA, although test scores provide incremental predictive validity. Many assume correlation directly yields decision usefulness, but the selection problem is more complex and depends on predictive strength, applicant-population distributions, institutional selectivity, and definitions of success. Using data from a large sample of four-year institutions, results evaluate usefulness indicators toward two admission goals.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryExam

FormatPDF

Pages76

Reading Time3 h 12 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Conventional evidence and correlations

Why usefulness is more complex than prediction strength

Study aims and evaluation approach

Findings and implications

# Usefulness of High School Averageand ACT Scores in Making CollegeAdmission Decisions Richard Sawyer For additional copies write:ACT Research Report SeriesPO.Box 168Iowa City,lowa 52243-0168 2010 by ACT,Inc.All rights reserved. Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scoresin Making College Admission Decisions Richard Sawyer Abstract Ample correlational evidence indicates that high school GPA is usually better thanadmission 1est scores in predicting first-year college GPA,although test scores have incrementalpredictive validity.Many people conclude that this correlational evidence translates directly tousefulness in making admission decisions.The issue of usefulness is more complex than isimplied by correlations or by other regression statistics,however. This paper considers two common goals in college admission:maximizing academicsuccess and accurately identifying potentially successful applicants.The usefulness of selectionvariables in achieving these goals depends not only on the predictive strength of the selectionvariables(such as measured by correlations),but also on other factors,including the distributionof the selection variables in the applicant population,institutions'selectivity,and their criteriafor what constitutes success. This paper considers indicators of usefulness in achievingadmission goals,and presents estimates of the indicators based on data from a large sample offour-year institutions. The results suggest that high school GPA is more useful than admission test scores insituations involving low selectivity in admissions and minimal to average academic performancein college.In contrast,test scores are more useful than high school GPA in situations involvinghigh selectivity and high academic performance.In nearly all contexts,test scores haveincremental usefulness beyond high school GPA. The paper also presents evidence for two other interesting phenomena:Students use theirhigh school GPAs and test scores to select the institutions they want to attend,and this self-selection may be more important than institutions'selection in admissions.Moreover,highschool GPA by test score interactions are important in predicting academic success. Acknowledgments The author thanks Jeff AHen,Julie Noble,and Nancy Petersen for their helpful commentsand suggestions on earlier drafts of this report. ## Usefulness of High School Average and ACT Scores in Making College AdmissionDecisions Conventional wisdom supported by ample evidence holds that high school grades areusually better than college admission test scores in predicting first-year college GPA,but testscores have incremental predictive validity.For example,Morgan(1989)calculated correlationsof high school rank,high school grades,and SAT scores with first-year college GPA in a studyencompassing the academic years 1976-1985.Over this time span,multiple correlations forhigh school rank and grades ranged from .48 to .52.These correlations were .06 to .14 higherthan the corresponding multiple correlations for SAT scores,but were .05 to .07 lower than thecorresponding multiple correlations for the high school and test score variables jointly.Morerecently,Kobrin,Patterson,Shaw,Mattern,and Barbuti(2008)reported correlations of .36 forhigh school GPA,.35 for SAT scores,and .46 for high school GPA and SAT scores jointly.Evidence for ACT scores(1999,2008c)is similar:For the academic years 1970-1971 through2006-2007,multiple correlations of high school subject-area grade averages with first-yearcollege GPA ranged from .48 to .51.The high school grade average correlations were .01 lowerto .08 higher than the corresponding ACT score correlations,and were .04 to .09 lower than thecorresponding correlations for ACT scores and high school grades jointly A plausible explanation of these results is that test publishers strive to make test scoresdirect measures of cognitive ability only.High school grades,in contrast,are compositemeasures of both cognitiv

FAQs

Why is high school GPA often considered more useful than admission test scores for predicting first-year college GPA?

Because high school GPA typically correlates more strongly with first-year college GPA, reflecting both cognitive ability and academically relevant behaviors, whereas admission tests provide more standardized measures of cognitive ability.

What factors make usefulness more complex than correlation or regression statistics?

Usefulness depends not only on predictive strength, but also on factors such as the distribution of selection variables in the applicant population, institutional selectivity, and what counts as success for admission goals.

In what contexts do test scores become more useful than high school GPA?

The paper finds test scores are more useful in situations involving high selectivity and high academic performance, while high school GPA is more useful in low selectivity contexts and minimal to average college academic performance.

Oct 9, 2026

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