Ultimate Bar Passage Rates - Which Law Schools Are Overperforming and Underperforming Expectations

Sep 4, 2026

Uploaded by Sarah

The article explains why ultimate bar passage rates are a critical measure of law school rigor, emphasizing students’ right to a meaningful chance of entering the legal profession and the severe financial and life consequences of failing bar exams. It reviews patterns in failure rates across demographic groups, links higher UGPA and LSAT to bar success, and describes predicting each school’s expected outcomes. It then identifies which institutions exceed or fall short of those expectations, with a focus on value added to ultimate bar passage for 2017–2019.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages20

Reading Time50 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Bar passage as a quality measure

Student impacts and consequences of failure

Predicting bar passage using UGPA and LSAT

Identifying overperforming and underperforming schools

Ultimate Bar Passage Rates: Which Law Schools Are Overperforming and Underperforming Expectations Jeffrey S. Kinsler* INTRODUCTION According to the American Bar Association, bar passage rates are“the single best outcome measure . . . in assessing whether a law school is maintaining a ‘rigorous program of legal education.’”1 Bar passage rates are better measures of the quality of legal education than graduation rates or employment results, for these outcomes “are not as directly relevant . . . to determining whether a law school is offering an educational program that is comprehensive and sufficiently rigorous. . ..”2 A law school’s bar passage rate is a metric of the quality of its graduates and its educational program.3 Bar passage rates are—and should be—important to all law students and potential law students. Students are entitled . . . to an education that provides them with a reasonable chance of passing the bar and entering the profession. . . . [L]aw students often incur substantial debt to earn a law degree. Whether students pass the bar influences their future livelihood and quality of life immensely, including their abilities to pay back their loans while maintaining an acceptable quality of life.4 Actually, law school graduates who fail to pass a bar exam end up in worse financial shape than those who decide not to pursue a legal education.5 It is only fair, therefore, that prospective law students be * Professor of Law and Founding Dean (2009–2014), Belmont University College of Law. 1. Am. Bar Ass’n, Section of Legal Educ. & Admissions to the Bar, Revisions to Standard 316: Frequently Asked Questions 1, [https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/legal_education_and_admission](https://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/legal_education_and_admission)[s_to_the_bar/council_reports_and_resolutions/may19/3-19-may-316-faq.pdf](s_to_the_bar/council_reports_and_resolutions/may19/3-19-may-316-faq.pdf) (last visited May 15, 2022) [hereinafter Revisions to Standard 316: Frequently Asked Questions] . [2.](2. Id. at 2)[ Id.](2. Id. at 2)[ at 2](2. Id. at 2). 3. Carrie M. Poniewaz, Teach to the Test?, FLA. BAR NEWS (Oct. 15, 2006) (quoting University of Florida Dean Robert Jerry) . 4. Revisions to Standard 316: Frequently Asked Questions, supra note 1, at 3. 5. Jane Yakowitz, Marooned: An Empirical Investigation of Law School Graduates Who Fail the Bar Exam, 60 J. LEG. EDUC. 3, 40 (2010) . aware of their chances of passing a bar exam before choosing a law school. Approximately 10% of law school graduates never pass a bar exam.6 The failure rate is even higher for African-American and Hispanic graduates.7 For the class of 2019, 6% of white graduates never passed a bar exam, while 19% of African-American and 13% of Hispanic graduates never passed a bar exam.8 Moreover, the consequences of never passing a bar exam are dire: Law school graduates who never pass a bar exam have avery difficult “first term.” Five to ten years out of law school, they lag well behind lawyers on every measure—earnings, employment stability, even marriage and divorce rates. Moreover, as a group, they fare worse than college graduates, despite their better-than-average undergraduate grades.9 Statistically, students with higher undergraduate grade point averages (UGPA) and LSAT scores are more likely to pass the bar exam than students with lower UGPAs and LSAT scores. 10 As a result, a predicted bar passage rate may be calculated for each law school based upon its UGPA and LSAT scores.11 Once a predicted bar passage rate is calculated, it is possible to determine which law schools are overperforming or underperforming in terms of preparing their students [6.](6. Id. at)[ Id.](6. Id. at)[ at](6. Id. at) 3. Ms. Yakowitz’s findings are consistent with ABA reports. For example, in the graduating class of 2019, 8.83% of law school graduates never passed a bar exam and law schools had no informati

FAQs

Why are ultimate bar passage rates emphasized over graduation or employment outcomes?

Bar passage rates are treated as the best direct outcome for assessing whether a law school maintains a rigorous legal education program. Graduation and employment results are considered less directly tied to program comprehensiveness and rigor.

What factors predict higher chances of passing the bar exam?

Statistically, students with higher UGPA and higher LSAT scores are more likely to pass. These metrics support calculating an expected bar passage rate for each law school.

How does the article define overperformance and underperformance among law schools?

After calculating a predicted (expected) bar passage rate from UGPA and LSAT inputs, the article compares schools’ outcomes to identify which institutions add more bar passage value than expected and which lag behind expectations.

Sep 4, 2026

Uploaded by Sarah