UC and the SAT - Predictive Validity and Differential Impact of the SAT I and SAT II at the University of California

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret

University of California proposes and contextualizes the role of standardized testing in admissions, focusing on SAT I and SAT II achievement tests. Drawing on systemwide data from eight UC undergraduate campuses, the paper examines links between SAT scores and academic outcomes for nearly 78,000 first-time freshmen admitted over four years. It compares predictive strength across tests, evaluates how socioeconomic status and family background condition validity, and assesses differential effects across racial and ethnic groups, informing admissions policy decisions.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages25

Reading Time1 h 3 min

AccessFree to download

Predictive Validity of the SAT I and the SAT II Achievement Tests

Relative contribution of grades and test scores

Data scope and definitions of SAT I and SAT II components

UC and the SAT: Predictive Validity and Differential Impact of the SAT I and SAT II at the University of California Saul Geiser with Roger Studley University of California Office of the President October 29, 2001 UC and the SAT: Predictive Validity and Differential Impact of the SAT I and SAT II at the University of California Saul Geiser with Roger Studley University of California, Office of the President 1 University of California President Richard C. Atkinson’s proposal to discontinue use of the SAT I in college admissions in favor of achievement tests,2 such as the SAT II, did not come out of the blue. UC is one of the few higher educational institutions in the nation that requires applicants to take both the SAT I and the SAT II achievement tests, so that UC has extensive experience with the two tests. Two years before President Atkinson made his proposal, BOARS (Board ofAdmissions and Relations with Schools), the UC faculty committee charged with formulating admissions policy, voted to de-emphasize the SAT I and to increase the weight given to the SAT II in its “Eligibility Index,” a formula used to identify the top 12.5% statewide pool of California high school graduates based on their grades and standardized test scores. Subsequently, President Atkinson’s speech to the American Council of Education in February 2001 prompted the growing national debate about the validity and role of the SAT in college admissions.3 What is UC’s experience with the SAT I and SAT II, and what do our data show? This paper presents systemwide data for UC’s eight undergraduate campuses, examining the relationship between SAT scores and academic outcomes based on the records of almost 78,000 first-time freshmen who entered UC over the past four years. The paper is divided into four parts. Part I examines the relative power of the SAT I and the SAT II achievement tests in predicting students’ success at UC. Part II analyzes the conditioning effects of socioeconomic status and family background on the predictive validity of these tests. Part III looks at the differential impact of the SAT I and the SAT II on various racial/ethnic groups. Part IV concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for admissions policy. 1 Saul Geiser is director of research and evaluation and Roger Studley is senior research analyst in admissions and outreach at UC Office of the President. We wish to thank the following individuals for their constructive criticism of earlier drafts ofthis paper, although the authors remain solely responsible for the findings and conclusions herein: Michael Brown, Michael Feuer, Ed Haertel, Dan Koretz, Bob Linn, Juliet Shaffer, Rich Shavelson and Gregg Thomson. 2 “Achievement“ tests refer to tests that are designed to measure students’mastery of specific subject-matter areas, rather than generalized aptitude, intelligence or reasoning abilities. 3 Richard C. Atkinson,“Standardized Tests and Access to American Universities,” The 2001 Robert H. Atwell Distinguished Lecture, delivered at the 83rd Annual Meeting of the American Council on Education, Washington, D.C, February 18, 2001. The full text of the lecture is available at [http://www.ucop.edu/pres/welcome.html](http://www.ucop.edu/pres/welcome.html). I. Predictive Validity of the SAT I and the SAT II Achievement Tests The primary rationale for using standardized tests, such as the SAT, in college admissions is to predict success in college. Quoting from a recent publication of the College Board, The SAT has proven to be an important predictor of success in college. Its validity as a predictor of success in college has been demonstrated through hundreds of validity studies. These validity studies consistently find that highschool grades and SAT scores together are substantial and significant predictors of achievement in college (Camara and Echternacht, 2000, p. 9) . Yet while it is true that the “predictive validity” of the SAT I has b

FAQs

What data and sample does the paper use to evaluate SAT I and SAT II?

The analysis uses systemwide UC records for nearly 78,000 first-time freshmen across eight undergraduate campuses over four years (Fall 1996 through Fall 1999). Students with missing SAT scores or high school GPAs are excluded.

How does the paper define collegiate “success” for predictive validity?

The study uses freshman GPA as the criterion for college success, consistent with the College Board’s common approach in SAT validity research.

How is socioeconomic status and family background handled in assessing predictive validity?

The paper analyzes conditioning effects of socioeconomic status and family background on how predictive validity of the SAT I and SAT II performs.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Margaret