Two Demographic Cliffs - How to Diversify Student Audiences and Prepare for the Future

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Sarah

Explores how demographic shifts will create successive enrollment “cliffs” for U.S. colleges and universities, extending contraction into the following decade. Uses new U.S. Census Bureau population projections and compares them with earlier projections, noting optimism in prior forecasts, while presenting state-level uneven change. Recommends strategic planning centered on alternative student audiences as undergraduate numbers decline, emphasizing online program expansion and master’s offerings aligned with career advancement.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages8

Reading Time20 min

AccessFree to download

Overview of two demographic cliffs

New population and enrollment data

Uneven state-level contraction

What institutions should do

Expand online programming

Focus on career-advancing master’s programs

Two Demographic Cliffs? How to Diversify Student Audiences and Prepare for the Future How many times have we all read about the demographic cliff? With so much attention, we may have become desensitized to its implications, but just as we approach 2025, the first year of contraction, new data indicate that institutions will be contending with steady contraction for most of the next 15 years. While the pandemic demonstrated just how nimble colleges and universities can be, many continue to focus primarily on a traditional experience for undergraduates, with their other “revenue streams”(e. g. graduate programs, online programs) being secondary. As institutions seek to recoup what is likely to be an unavoidable undergraduate contraction, bringing these audiences to the center of strategic planning (with adequate resources) is essential. New Data: In February, the U.S. Census Bureau released new population projections, the first to be based on the 2020 rather than the 2010 census, that indicate that two years after the first cliff ends (in 2030) another will begin and last until 2039. The blue lines in the chart below present projected numbers of 18-year-olds with the old projection (dotted line) and the new revised projections (dashed line) . The orange lines display U.S. Department of Education (IPEDS) projections for first-year students, as projected in 2022, 2020, and 2016 (orange) . The data indicate that each time the department does its projections, they are overly optimistic. | Two Demographic Cliffs
18-Year-Olds and First-Year Enrollment 2000-2060 | | | --- | --- | | 4,80 0,0 00 4,60 0,0 00 4,40 0,0 00 4,20 0,0 00 4,00 0,0 00 3,80 0,0 00 3,60 0,0 00 3,40 0,0 00 3,20 0,0 00 3,00 0,0 00 2,80 0,0 00 2,60 0,0 00 2,40 0,0 00 2,20 0,0 00
2,00 0,0 00 | | |
Estimated number of 18-year-olds
Projected number of 18-year-olds ( 202 3 version)
Projected fall e nrollment of college freshme n (20 22 ve rsion)
20 20 Projections

Estimated fal l enrollment of college freshme n Projected number of 18-year-olds ( 201 7 version)
20 16 Projections
20 00
20 02 20 04
20 06 20 08
20 10 20 12
20 14 20 16
20 18 20 20
20 22 20 24
20 26 20 28
20 30 20 32
20 34 20 36
20 38 20 40
20 42 20 44
20 46 20 48
20 50 20 52
20 54 20 56
20 58 20 60 | | | Demographic data and higher ed projections originally published: Colleges Were Already Bracing for an ‘Enrollment Cliff.’ Now There Might Be a Second One. The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2/7/2024 | | © 2024 RNL | Two Demographic Cliffs 1 | BY THE NUMBERS | NET NEW 18-YEAR-OLDS | PERCENT CHANGE | | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-2030 | -329,907 | -7.3% | | 2030-3033 | 55,523 | +1.3 | | 2033-2039 | -375,790 | -9.0% | | Total Change (2026-2039) | -650,174 | -15%% | Uneven Change Nathan Grawe’s 2018 book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education provides the most comprehensive analysis of what is on the horizon for American colleges and universities. His state-level projections of change among “college-going” students (calculated using data on 18-year-olds and the other hypotheses laid out in the book) indicate uneven change among the 50 states, with many facing even more contraction than the average. He states,“When population figures are adjusted for the probability of collegegoing, the situation looks a bit worse in two-thirds of the locations.” Twenty-seven states are projected to see more than a 15 percent contraction in college-going students (nine west of the Mississippi, 15 east of the Mississippi) while three more will see as much as 15 percent. Eleven states will see lesser contraction. Only nine states are projected to see growth, indicating that for most of the country, enrollment stability (or growth) will require institutions to rethink how they attract and enroll students—or lower their entrance requirements in order to fill their classes. In what follows, we offer a way forward. Forecasted Growth

FAQs

What does the report mean by “two demographic cliffs”?

It describes a first period of undergraduate contraction after 2030 and a second contraction beginning two years later and lasting until 2039. The report frames this as a continuing challenge for enrollment planning.

Why does the report say current projections may be overly optimistic?

It compares older and revised population projections for 18-year-olds and contrasts them with Department of Education first-year enrollment projections. The report concludes that each set of projections has tended to overestimate outcomes.

What actions does the report recommend for institutions facing undergraduate contraction?

It recommends maximizing traditional undergraduate enrollment while diversifying alternative student audiences. It highlights expanding online programming and strengthening master’s programs that advance students’ careers.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Sarah