TÜRKİYE CCDR - Background Note 1 - Earthquake Risk Assessment and Retrofit Scenarios - Version 1.0.0

Jul 19, 2026

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Earthquake risk assessment and retrofit intervention scenarios for Türkiye are developed using an exposure model and probabilistic seismic risk analysis framework. The background note covers exposure model development, including data sources, spatial distribution, exposure projection, and vulnerability assignments, followed by baseline seismic hazard, fragility, and vulnerability modeling. It then presents retrofit scenario options for existing buildings and new construction code enforcement, culminating in scenario results summaries and referenced methods and outputs.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages45

Reading Time1 h 53 min

Exposure model

Data sources

Spatial distribution

Exposure projection

Vulnerability assignments

Exposure summaries

Baseline seismic risk

Seismic hazard model

Seismic fragility and vulnerability model

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment

Projection of seismic risk

Retrofit intervention scenarios

Overview of the scenarios

Scenario A: Retrofit existing building stock

Scenario B: Enforce seismic design code for all new construction

Scenario C: Enforce design code and retrofit existing building stock

Summary of retrofit scenario results

References

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized TÜRKIYE CCDR Background Note1 Earthquake risk assessment and retrofit scenariosforTürkiye Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Exposure Model Development Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis Retrofit Intervention Scenarios Version 1.0.0—May 2021 Anirudh Rao, Alejandro Calderón, Vitor Silva, Luís Martins, Nicole Paul Copyright © 2021 Rao, A., Calderón, A., Silva, V., Martins, L., Paul, N. Except where otherwise noted this work is made available under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) . Citation: Rao, A., Calderón, A., Silva, V., Martins, L., Paul, N. (2021) Earthquake risk assessment and retrofit intervention scenario analysis for Turkey. Table of Contents 1 Exposure model-------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ---1 1.1 Data sources------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 1.1.1 Pre-2000 buildings-------------------------------- -------------------------------- -----------------1 1.1.2 Post-2000 buildings--------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 1.1.3 Population-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 1.1.4 Floor areas and replacement costs--------------------------------------------------------------5 1.2 Spatial distribution---------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 1.2.1 Residential buildings------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 1.2.2 Agricultural, industrial, and commercial buildings------------------------------------------7 1.2.3 Other buildings-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 1.3 Exposure projection--------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 1.3.1 Built-up area growth-------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 1.3.2 Building types and construction practices-------------------------------- -------------------11 1.4 Vulnerability assignments---------------------------------------------------------------- ------11 1.4.1 Mapping structural systems to the GEM taxonomy-------------------------------- --------11 1.4.2 Evolution of seismic design requirements-------------------------------- -------------------12 1.4.3 Assignment of system ductility-------------------------------- --------------------------------13 1.5 Exposure summaries---------------------------------------------------------------- -------------14 1.5.1 Country-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------14 1.5.2 Province-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- ------16 1.5.3 District-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- --------18 2 Baseline seismic risk -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------------------------20 2.1 Seismic hazard model---------------------------------------------------------------- ------------20 2.2 Seismic fragility and vulnerability model-------------------------------- -------------------20 2.3 Probabilistic seismic risk assessment-------------------------------- -----------------------21 2.3.1 Country-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------21 2.3.2 Province-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- ------24 2.3.3 District-level summaries-------------------------------- -------------------------------- --------26 2.4 Projection of seismic risk---------------------------------------------------------------- --------27 3 Retrofit intervention scenarios-------------------------------- ------------------------

FAQs

What does the exposure model include in the document?

It covers data sources, spatial distribution, exposure projection, vulnerability assignments, and exposure summaries at country, province, and district levels.

How is baseline seismic risk assessed?

The note builds a seismic hazard model, derives seismic fragility and vulnerability, performs probabilistic seismic risk assessment, and projects seismic risk outcomes.

What types of retrofit intervention scenarios are analyzed?

Three scenarios are provided: retrofitting existing building stock, enforcing seismic design codes for all new construction, and combining code enforcement with retrofitting existing stock.

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Jiven