Trends analysis of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival for the elderly in the United States, 1975–2020

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Liam

Aging populations have increased cancer burden among older adults, yet long-term epidemiological trends in elderly cancers remain underexplored. This study uses population-based SEER registry data to evaluate incidence, mortality, and survival for individuals aged 65+ from geographically distinct regions across 1975–2020. Joinpoint regression and JP Surv quantify temporal trends and survival patterns, revealing declining overall mortality alongside site-specific adverse shifts in recent periods.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages14

Reading Time35 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Introduction

Clinical and public health rationale

Prior evidence and knowledge gaps

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Data acquisition

DOI: 10. 1002/cam4 .70062 RESEAR CH ARTICLE Trends analysis of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival for the elderly in the United States, 1975–2020 Jia Xu1,2 | Jingyuan Liao1,2 | Qiong Yan1,2 | Jiang Jiao1,2 | Nan Hu1,2 | Wei Zhang1,2 | Lei Shi1,2 | Mingming Deng1,2 | Shu Huang3,4 | Xiaowei Tang1,2 1Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China 2Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China 3Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People' Hospital, Huaian, China 4Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People' Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China Correspondence Xiaowei Tang, Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Street Taiping No. 25, Region Jiangyang, Luzhou, Sichuan 646099, China. Email: [solitude5834@hotmail.com](solitude5834@hotmail.com) Shu Huang, Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People' Hospital, Huaian, China. [Email:](Email: 0826hxs@163.com)[ 0826hxs@163.com](Email: 0826hxs@163.com) Abstract Background: Cancer burden from the elderly has been rising largely due to the aging population. However, research on the long-term epidemiological trends in cancer of the elderly is lacking. Methods: Registry data of this population-based cross-sectional study were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The study population aged 65 years or more, from geographically distinct regions. Joinpoint regression and JP Surv method were used to analyze cancer trends and survival. Results: Mortality rate during 1975–2020 decreased from 995.20 to 824.99 per 100,000 elderly persons, with an average annual decrease of 0.421%(95% CI, 0.378–0.464) . While overall incidence increased with no significance. Prostate (29%) and breast (26%) cancer were the most common malignancies, respectively, in elderly males and females, and the mortality for both of the two (prostate 15%, breast 14%) ranked just behind lung and bronchus cancer, which had the highest mortality rates in males (29%) and females (23%) . Many cancers showed adverse trends in the latest follow-up periods (the last period calculated by the Joinpoint method). For intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, incidence (male Annual Percentage Change [APC] = 7.4*; female APC = 6.7*) and mortality (male APC = 3.0*; female APC = 3.3*) increased relatively fast, and its survival was also terrible (3-year survival only 10%) . Other cancers with recent increasing mortality included cancer of anus, anal canal and anorectum, retroperitoneum, pleura, peritoneum, etc. Most cancers had favorable trends of survival during the nearest follow-up period. Conclusion: Against the background of overall improvement, many cancers showed adverse trends. Further research for the underlying mechanisms and targeted implements towards adverse trends is also urgent. KEYWORDS Cancer, Elderly, Epidemiology, SEER | Jia Xu, Jingyuan Liao, Qiong Yan contributed equally to this study. | | --- | | This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
© 2024 The Author(s). Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. | Cancer Medicine. 2024;13:e70062 . [https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.70062](https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.70062) [wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/cam4](wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/cam4) 1 of 14 1 | INTRODUCTION Cancer had been the second cause of death just behind heart diseases in the United States (US) during 2015– 2020.1,2 It is estimated that there will be 1,958,310 new cancer cases and 609,820 cancer deaths in the US in 2023, and over half of the newly diagnosis and over 70% deaths are elderly patients (defined as persons aged 65 years or more in this study) .3 With

FAQs

What data source and study design were used to analyze cancer trends in the elderly?

The analysis used population-based cross-sectional registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, focusing on adults aged 65 years or more across different regions.

What overall trend in mortality was observed from 1975 to 2020?

Mortality declined from 995.20 to 824.99 per 100,000 elderly persons over 1975–2020, with an average annual decrease of 0.421% (95% CI, 0.378–0.464).

Which cancers showed particularly concerning recent trends and survival outcomes?

In recent follow-up periods, multiple cancers showed adverse trends; intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma had rapidly increasing incidence and mortality and poor 3-year survival (10%), and other cancers with increasing recent mortality included anal/anorectal sites and several abdominal and pleural/peritoneal sites.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Liam