Trend analysis of liver cancer mortality in Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021 - Research

Q: Which statistical methods were used to analyze mortality trends?

Joinpoint regression was used for temporal trend analysis, and an age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort.

Q: What were the key findings about rural vs urban mortality trends?

Standardized mortality rates declined overall, and rural residents experienced a faster decline than urban residents, while rural mortality remained higher than urban mortality.

Sep 23, 2026

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Trend analysis of liver cancer mortality in Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021 was conducted to clarify patterns that were previously unknown. Standardized mortality rates were extracted from China Health Statistics Yearbook (2002–2021) and analyzed for temporal trends using Joinpoint regression. An age-period-cohort (APC) model further assessed contributions of age, period, and birth cohort. Mortality showed an overall fluctuating decline, rural reductions outpaced urban, rural and males remained higher, and mortality increased with age. Newer birth cohorts exhibited gradual decreases, with prevention and medical improvements highlighted.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryHealthcare

FormatPDF

Pages10

Reading Time25 min

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Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

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Background

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Wang et al. BMC Cancer (2026) 26:337 [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-15660-9](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-026-15660-9) BMC Cancer RESEARCH Open Access Trend analysis of liver cancer mortality in Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021 Yuxin Wang1, Miao Lu2, Xu Su1, Chunying Cui3, Wei Zhang4* and Guoping Wang3* Abstract Background To analyze trends in liver cancer mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021, which are currently unknown. Methods In accordance with the standardisation of liver cancer mortality rates obtained from the“Causes of Illness, Injury, and Death Among Residents” section of the China Health Statistics Yearbook (2002–2021), these rates were analysed for temporal trends using the Joinpoint regression model. A subsequent cohort analysis was conducted using an age-period-cohort (APC) model to investigate the impact of age, period, and birth cohort on these changes. Results Over the 20-year evaluation period, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with rural residents experiencing a faster decline than urban residents (AAPCof-2.9 and − 2 . 7, respectively; P < 0. 05) . However, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer was higher among rural residents than among those from urban areas and was higher among males than among females. Liver cancer standardised mortality rate exhibited an increasing trend with respect to age. Regarding the cohort effect, liver cancer mortality gradually decreased in more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion In recent years, the mortality rate of liver cancer among Chinese residents has generally declined; however, it remains relatively high, especially in rural individuals and middle-aged men. Vaccination of hepatitis virus, clean drinking water and healthy foods, regular physical examinations, good lifestyle habits, and improved medical standards are the keys to reducing the risk of liver cancer-related death in China. Keywords Liver cancer, Mortality, Trend, Joinpoint regression *Correspondence: Wei Zhang [1024031413@qq.com](1024031413@qq.com)[ ](1024031413@qq.com)Guoping Wang 3041 [11225@qq.com](11225@qq.com) 1School of Anesthesiology, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China 2School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu, China 3School of Humanities and Management, Wannan Medical College, No. 22 Wenchang West Road, Yijiang District, Wuhu, China 4School of Marxism, Wannan Medical College, No. 22 Wenchang West Road, Yijiang District, Wuhu, China Background Cancer is a major chronic disease that poses a serious threat to human life and health worldwide, with liver cancer being the sixth most common type of cancer globally. Due to the fact that most cases of liver cancer are not detected until the middle and late stages of the disease, the prognosis is often poor, and cure rates remain low due to limited available treatment options [1, 2]. In 2022, global liver cancer deaths reached 759,000 cases, accounting for 7.8% of all cancer deaths worldwide and ranking as the third leading cause of cancer mortality globally. In China, liver cancer accounted for 316,500 deaths, constituting 10.1% of all cancer deaths nationwide © The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in

FAQs

What was the main objective of the study on liver cancer mortality?

To analyze trends in liver cancer mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021 and examine differences across subgroups.

Which statistical methods were used to analyze mortality trends?

Joinpoint regression was used for temporal trend analysis, and an age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to evaluate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort.

What were the key findings about rural vs urban mortality trends?

Standardized mortality rates declined overall, and rural residents experienced a faster decline than urban residents, while rural mortality remained higher than urban mortality.

Sep 23, 2026

Uploaded by Genevieve