The Unaccounted Students of the Pandemic - A Cross-Sector Analysis of Hawai`i’s Enrollment Decline

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel

Evidence shows public-school enrollment declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet limited research explains where unenrolled students went. Using cross-sector enrollment and mobility data from Hawai`i, this study finds demographic change and movement to private schools, out-of-state relocation, or homeschooling do not account for the full loss of public-school students. Many unenrolled students appear to have redshirted or left formal education in SY 2020-21. Regression with island fixed effects identifies two pre-pandemic predictors.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Declines and Key Findings

Context: Student Demographics and Attendance Requirements

Explaining Public-School Enrollment Declines

CEPA Working Paper No. 21-07 The Unaccounted Students of the Pandemic: A Cross-Sector Analysis of Hawai`i’s Enrollment Decline AUTHORS Mark Murphy University of Hawai`i at Mānoa ABSTRACT Growing evidence illustrates the size and character of public-school enrollment declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, far less is known about where unenrolled students went. Using unique cross-sector enrollment and mobility data from the state of Hawai`i, this study provides evidence that demographic changes and movement to private schools, out of the state, or to homeschooling did not account for the full loss of public-school students. Many unenrolled students appear to have redshirted or dropped out of formal education during school year (SY) 2020-21. Further, regression analyses with island ﬁxed eﬀects indicate that two pre-pandemic factors predicted school-level enrollment declines: (1) the share of the Paciﬁc Islander students; and (2) whether the school had a high pupil-teacher ratio. Acknowledgements – This work beneﬁtted from excellent research support from Kiley Oeda. I am also grateful for helpful comments from Thomas S. Dee and Dana Goldstein. VERSION August 2021 Suggested citation: Murphy, M. , The Unaccounted Students of the Pandemic: A Cross-Sector Analysis of Hawai`i’s Enrollment Decline. (CEPA Working Paper No. 21. 07) . Retrieved from Stanford Center for Education Policy Analysis: [https://cepa.stanford.edu/wp21-07](https://cepa.stanford.edu/wp21-07) THE UNACCOUNTED STUDENTS OF THE PANDEMIC 1 The Unaccounted Students of the Pandemic: A Cross-Sector Analysis of Hawai`i’s Enrollment Decline The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial disruptions of public schooling across the nation. Recent estimates suggest that more than one million students nationwide did not enroll in public schools during school year (SY) 2020-21, with every state in the U. S. registering a loss in students (Goldstein & Parlapiano, 2021; Pendharkar, 2021) . In Hawai`i, schools began shutting their doors in March of 2020 and most schools did not reinstate in-person instruction until the final quarter of the 2020-21 school year (Kishimoto, 2021) . Between SY 2019-20 and SY 2020- 21, the state saw its public-school enrollment decline by 2.6 percentage points. Emerging research suggests that enrollment declines may be linked to the instructional format (i.e., virtual or in-person) of schooling (Dee et al., 2021) and that declines varied across different public school district types (e.g., charter, virtual, and vocational districts) (Dee & Murphy, forthcoming). Recent studies highlight the likely learning loss caused by the pandemic on achievement but also the ways that schools have been able to still support learners nationwide (Domingue et al., 2021; Kuhfeld et al., 2020) . Little remains known, however, about the crosssector patterns of school enrollment fluctuations following the onset of the pandemic. This study examines student enrollment changes in Hawai`i public and private schools between SY 2019-20 and SY 2020-21 and makes at least two key contributions. First, I organize school-level enrollment and withdrawal data to examine the character of Hawai`i’s enrollment changes. Merging enrollment data from the state’s only public school district and its wellestablished network of private schools enables a unique cross-sector exploration of the schoollevel character of the decline in school enrollment. Second, I explore the pre-pandemic factors THE UNACCOUNTED STUDENTS OF THE PANDEMIC 2 that predicted enrollment declines by linking school-level enrollment data for all traditional public elementary schools to a wide range of pre-pandemic school-level covariates. Declines were concentrated in traditional public schools (i.e., not charter schools nor private schools) and largely occurred for students in grades K-G4 . Demographic changes and withdrawals of public-school students to homeschooling, private schooling, or

FAQs

What does the study investigate about Hawai`i’s enrollment decline?

It examines changes in student enrollment in Hawai`i public and private schools between SY 2019-20 and SY 2020-21, focusing on what explains the loss of public-school students.

Why don’t demographic changes and common relocation options fully explain the enrollment loss?

The study uses cross-sector data to show that changes in demographics and moves to private schools, out of the state, or to homeschooling do not account for the full reduction in public-school enrollment.

Which pre-pandemic factors predicted school-level enrollment declines?

Regression analyses with island fixed effects indicate that (1) the share of Pacific Islander students and (2) a high pupil-teacher ratio predicted declines at the school level.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel