the Testing Column - At-Risk Students - Identifying and Helping Students Progress Through Law School and Pass the Bar Exam

Sep 21, 2026

The article examines practical indicators for identifying law students at risk of poor performance in law school and on the bar exam. It analyzes undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and LSAT scores as predictors linked to MBE scaled scores, noting that the LSAT shows a stronger though imperfect relationship. Additional predictors include law school grades and MPRE performance, while emphasizing that local analyses can improve accuracy. It then discusses how testing during law school can provide timely feedback for remediation and motivate learning, including NCBE Online Practice Exams.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryExam

FormatPDF

Pages3

Reading Time8 min

AccessFree to download

Indicators Helpful in Identifying At-Risk Students

Undergraduate GPA

LSAT Score

Other Indicators

Helping Students Prepare During Law School

Testing as feedback and motivation

Using NCBE Online Practice Exams

the testing CoLumn identifying and heLPing at-risk students by Susan M. Case, Ph.D. E veryone knows that students enter law school with different backgrounds and levels of ability. Fortunately for those committed to helping students progress through law school and ultimately pass the bar exam, there are indicators of probable success that can be used to identify students at risk. While the popular press often condemns these indicators, they may in fact be useful for this purpose. indiCators HelpFul in identiFying at-risk students Undergraduate GPA Let’s start with the undergraduate GPA (UGPA) . Our data indicate that those students with higher UGPAs tend to have higher MBE scores. (MBE scores are a surrogate for total bar exam scores in the results reported here. MBE scores are highly related to total bar exam scores and are used because we don’t typically have access to total bar exam scores.) Table 1 shows that average MBE scores increase for examinees with higher UGPAs. Figure 1 shows this relationship in a scatter plot format. Each dot represents a person, and while the average MBE score for those candidates with UGPAs of 3.5 is 151, at least one such examinee had an MBE score of about 180 while another had an MBE score of about 100. (Please note that the relationship between MBE scoresand UGPAs is not as strong as others discussed next.) It’s easy to offer hypotheses about this range of scores. These data include students from schools ranging from very strong to much less strong, and they include students who took the most rigorous to the easiest courses. Despite these variations, these data can be used to identify students at risk to perform poorly in law school and to perform poorly on the bar exam. LSAT Score The second piece of data that is usually available is the LSAT score. The relationship between the MBE and the LSAT score is stronger than that with the UGPA. One reason for this stronger relationship is that the LSAT is taken closer to entry into law school. The UGPA, on the other hand, covers the previous four years. A second reason is that the LSAT score is comparable for all students; it does not include the complex element of varying quality of schools and courses. Table 2 shows that average MBE scores increase for examinees with higher LSAT scores. While the relationship to the MBE is stronger with the LSAT (correlation = 0.57) than with the 30 The Bar Examiner, December 2011 Table 1: Average MBE Scores for Various UGPA Levels | UGPA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Average MBE score | 136 | 138 | 144 | 151 | 157 | MBE Scaled Score 200 180 160 140 120 100 Undergraduate GPA Figure 1: Relationship between UGPA and MBE scores Table 2: Average MBE Scores for Various LSAT Levels | LSAT score | 130 | 140 | 150 | 160 | 170 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Average MBE score | 119 | 132 | 143 | 153 | 160 | UGPA (correlation = 0.36), it is not a perfect relationship. However, it is generally true that examinees who perform better on the LSAT perform better on the MBE than those who show a poor performance on the LSAT. Other Indicators Other indicators that can be used to identify students at risk include law school grades, both firstyear grades and others (correlation = 0.55–0.70 depending on the law school) . Finally, MPRE scores may also be used to identify students at risk (correlation = 0.58) . The MPRE is typically taken late in law school, so while the strength of the relationship is moderately high, it may have less utility because the test is taken too late for early prediction. Analyses of local data will be more accurate than the data shown here. However, there is no question that UGPAs, LSAT scores, law school grades, and MPRE scores are each helpful in identifying students at risk for failing the bar exam. Helping Students Prepare During Law School Testing students in law school generates

FAQs

Which indicators does the article recommend for identifying at-risk law students?

It recommends undergraduate GPA (UGPA), LSAT score, law school grades, and MPRE scores as helpful indicators for identifying students at risk for failing the bar exam.

How does UGPA relate to MBE scores according to the article?

Average MBE scores increase as UGPA levels rise, though the relationship is not as strong as with LSAT. The article also notes that individuals at the same UGPA can still have a wide MBE score range.

Why does the article say LSAT is a stronger predictor than UGPA?

It argues the LSAT is taken closer to entry into law school and is more comparable across students because it does not reflect varying school and course quality. The correlation with MBE is reported as stronger, but still not perfect.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Lucas Vance