The seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its associations with meteorological factors in Hong Kong, 2014-2023

Q: What is the main aim of the study in Hong Kong from 2014 to 2023?

To characterize RSV seasonality and quantify associations between RSV positivity and meteorological factors, so stakeholders can optimize timing of prevention and immunization strategies.

Q: Which methods were used to explore RSV seasonality in the study?

Three approaches were applied: the 50th percentile method, the average annual percentage (AAP) method, and the 2% threshold method.

Q: What meteorological factors were associated with RSV positive rate?

Mean temperature showed a positive association with RSV positivity, while mean dew point temperature showed a negative association.

Sep 29, 2026

Uploaded by McQueen

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory pathogen causing severe disease mainly in children and older adults. Understanding RSV seasonality and meteorological drivers is essential to time RSV immunization and related policies. Methods: Weekly RSV surveillance data from Hong Kong (2014–2023) were analyzed using 50th percentile, AAP, and 2% threshold approaches; generalized additive models assessed links between RSV positivity and weather variables. Results: 44,722 RSV-positive specimens (2.81%) showed year-on-year variability with annual and biannual epidemics, totaling nine epidemics from mid-February to late September (~6 months). Mean temperature correlated positively, while mean dew point temperature correlated negatively. Conclusions: The 2% threshold is recommended as an alert threshold; a One Health perspective supports broader intersectoral prevention.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryHealthcare

FormatPDF

Pages9

Reading Time23 min

AccessFree to download

Background

Introduction

Methods

Data and study period (2014–2023)

Seasonality detection approaches

Statistical modeling

Results

RSV epidemic patterns

Associations with meteorological factors

Conclusions

One Health 21 (2025) 101175 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect One Health journal [homepage:](homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/onehlt)[ www.elsevier.com/locate/onehlt](homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/onehlt) | The seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its associations with meteorological factors in Hong Kong, 2014–2023 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Qian Xionga, Zhuyao Ronga, Jinjun Ran b, Xiang Ren c, Li Lid,*
a School of Health Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China b School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
c Division of Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
d State Key Laboratory of Multi-organ Injury Prevention and Treatment, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China | | | | | A R T I C L E I N F O | | A B S T R A C T | | | Keywords:
RSV
Seasonality Meteorological factors | | Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory virus that causes respiratory diseases in all ages and causes severe diseases mainly among children and older adults. Understanding the seasonal pattern of RSV and its influencing factors is crucial for policy makers to optimize the timing of RSV immunization strategies. We explored the RSV seasonality and its associations with meteorological factors in Hong Kong from 2014 to 2023.
Methods: We collected weekly RSV surveillance data in Hong Kong between 2014 and 2023 from Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of Hong Kong. Three different approaches were applied to explore the RSV seasonality including the 50th percentile method, the average annual percentage (AAP) method, and the 2 % threshold method. A generalized additive model was used to explore the associations between RSV positive rate and meteorological factors.
Results: During 10-year study period, 44,722 specimens were positive for RSV with a positive rate of 2.81 % in Hong Kong. The RSV epidemic varied year-on-year, with annual and biannual epidemics observed. The three approaches identified similar RSV epidemic in Hong Kong, a total of 9 RSV epidemics were found. The RSV epidemics mainly occurred from mid-February to late September, with an average duration of approximately 6 months during the study years. We found that mean temperature was positively associated with RSV positive rate, while mean dew point temperature showed a negative association.
Conclusions: RSV epidemic varied year-on-year in Hong Kong, the 2 % threshold is recommended as an alert threshold for RSV epidemics. A One Health perspective might enhance future prevention strategies by incorporating broader environmental and intersectoral factors. | | 1. Introducion Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the main causes of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), and ALRI is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in young children aged <5 years, especially in infants aged under 1 year [1,2]. Shi et al. estimated that there were 3.2 million RSV-associated hospitalizations in children aged <5 years, especially among infants aged less than 6 months [3]. And RSV can cause a substantial disease burden in adults, especially in older adults aged ≥65 years [4]. There were 336,000 RSV-associated hospitalizations in older adults globally [1]. Early-life infection with RSV has been well documented to increase the risk of recurrent wheezing and asthma [5], and reinfection with RSV can occur throughout life. RSV epidemics show varied seasonal patterns in different areas and different years around the world. In temperate areas, RSV usually has an annual epidemic and peaks during winter months, while for subtropical and tropical areas, RSV seasonality varied from annual epidemic and se

FAQs

What is the main aim of the study in Hong Kong from 2014 to 2023?

To characterize RSV seasonality and quantify associations between RSV positivity and meteorological factors, so stakeholders can optimize timing of prevention and immunization strategies.

Which methods were used to explore RSV seasonality in the study?

Three approaches were applied: the 50th percentile method, the average annual percentage (AAP) method, and the 2% threshold method.

What seasonal window and duration were observed for RSV epidemics?

RSV epidemics mainly occurred from mid-February to late September, with an average duration of approximately 6 months across the study years.

What meteorological factors were associated with RSV positive rate?

Mean temperature showed a positive association with RSV positivity, while mean dew point temperature showed a negative association.

Sep 29, 2026

Uploaded by McQueen