THE OODA LOOP - APPLYING MILITARY STRATEGY TO HIGH RISK DECISION MAKING AND OPERATIONAL LEARNING PROCESSES FOR ON-SNOW PRACTITIONERS

Sep 20, 2026

The OODA Loop strategy is presented as a situational awareness cycle—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—developed by USAF Colonel John Boyd in the mid-1950s. Although rooted in strategic military operations, it is applied to high-risk avalanche decision making by treating the snowpack environment as an “opponent.” The paper explains how rapid reassessment and action supports risk management, improves team learning, and helps “win” by avoiding injury and protecting infrastructure through faster hazard processing.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

OODA Loop concept and origins

Application to on-snow risk management

Victory goals for avalanche forecasters

Objective: tempo and information processing

Defensive vs offensive OODA loop

THE OODA LOOP (OBSERVE, ORIENT, DECIDE, ACT) APPLYING MILITARY STRATEGY TO HIGH RISK DECISION MAKING AND OPERATIONAL LEARNING PROCESSES FOR ON-SNOW PRACTITIONERS. Mark Kelly* -Alaska Heliskiing/AMGA ABSTRACT: The OODA Loop strategy is a concept of situational awareness first developed in the mid-1950s, by USAF Colonel John Boyd. While the origins of the OODA Loop lie in strategic military operations, the concept has been applied with great success in the realms of business, litigation, intelligence and information gathering, lawenforcement and even advanced medical treatment. For the modern risk manager, this concept will seem extremely familiar. The OODA Loop is simply a recurring cycle of reassessment and reaction to unfolding events. Where the OODA Loop process differs from other similar decision making processes is that we are now viewing the snowpack as an opponent, or in the military sense, an enemy, which we must defeat to protect personnel and facilities. Utilization of the OODA Loop is intended to help direct a team or individuals resources in order to“defeat” the“enemy”and“survive”. In the world of the avalanche forecaster, “victory” is avoiding injury to personnel or damage to facilities and infrastructure. The“Loop” is actually a series of loops that are constantly circulating and interacting throughout“combat operations”and assists in the allocation of energies and resources dependent upon the current phase of the“battle”. By applying the OODA Loop to risk management programs, there is potential to observe and correct potential deficiencies in the program or, conversely to enhance processes that are efficient and effective. The OODA loop may be equally useful for the individual or operational team settings. The OODA Loop strategy is a concept of situational awareness first developed in the mid-1950s, by USAF Colonel John Boyd. During the Korean war, Boyd was assigned to observe and assess the reasons for the rate of success of US pilots flying the F-86 Saber to engage and defeat the arguably superior MiG-15. F-86 pilots were credited with shooting down 792 MiGs for a loss of only 78 Sabers, a victory ratio of 10:1 . It was Boyd’s conclusions that this was not a result of superior aircraft design but a result of the ability for American pilots to quickly Observe, Orient, Decide and Act on their own without being slowed by the need tobe oriented by command elements far removed from the scene. This observation resulted in Boyd’s creation of the the OODA Loop concept, wherein those that are most able to quickly orient to their environment, make a decision and act upon it can overcome superior elements through rapid reaction. * Corresponding author address: Kelly, Mark. Alaska Heliskiing/AMGA , Haines, AK, USA tel: 970-744-0024; email: [pwdrjnky@mac.com](pwdrjnky@mac.com) While the origins of the OODA Loop lie in strategic military operations, the concept has been applied with great success in the realms of business, litigation, intelligence and information gathering, lawenforcement and even advanced medical treatment. For the modern risk manager, this concept will seem extremely familiar. The OODA Loop is simply a recurring cycle of reassessment and reaction to unfolding events. Where the OODA Loop process differs from other similar decision making processes is that we are now viewing the snowpack as an opponent, or in the military sense, an enemy, which we must defeat to protect personnel and facilities. While the snow and avalanche environment is not something to be viewed as hostile or harboring ill intent, these terms are used to qualify the roles of the snowpack and the decision maker in reference to application of this military strategy. Utilization of the OODA Loop is intended to help direct a team or individuals resources in order to“defeat” the“enemy”and“survive”. In the world of the avalanche forecaster, “victory” is rapidly and properly assessing hazard and reducing risk, therefo

FAQs

What is the OODA Loop and what are its stages?

The OODA Loop is a recurring cycle of Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act. It emphasizes continuous reassessment as events unfold.

How is the snowpack treated in the on-snow version of OODA?

The snowpack and weather environment are framed as an “opponent” that can slow decision-making by concealing information, causing disinformation, disrupting information gathering, and creating distraction.

What does “victory” mean for an avalanche forecaster using this approach?

Victory means rapidly and properly assessing hazard and reducing risk. The intended outcome is fewer injuries and less damage to facilities and infrastructure.

Sep 20, 2026

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