THE LIFETIME FISCAL IMPACT OF THE AUSTRALIAN PERMANENT MIGRATION PROGRAM - Treasury Paper 2021

Sep 18, 2026

Developed by Australia’s Treasury, the Fiscal Impact of New Australians (FIONA) model estimates the lifetime fiscal impact of permanent migrants. The approach measures tax revenues and government expenditures by Commonwealth, State and Territory governments attributable to migrants, using a lifetime perspective to capture net benefits during working age and net costs after retirement. It also calculates the lifetime value of taxes and service costs for the general Australian population to enable comparison, while emphasizing results are only one partial metric within broader program impacts.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages44

Reading Time1 h 51 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Purpose of the FIONA model

Accounting framework for fiscal impacts

Comparison with the general population

Interpreting results within broader program outcomes

THE LIFETIME FISCAL IMPACT OF THE AUSTRALIAN PERMANENT MIGRATION PROGRAM Peter Varela, Nicholas Husek, Thom Williams, Richard Maher & Darren Kennedy1 Treasury Paper2 2021 Date created: December 2021 1 Tax Analysis Division, The Treasury, Langton Crescent, Parkes ACT 2600, Australia. Correspondence: Peter Varela, [peter.varela@treasury.gov.au](peter.varela@treasury.gov.au). The development of the FIONA model reflects the efforts of a large number of Treasury staff. In addition to the authors of this report, this includes Gillian Beer, Rita Scholl, Angie McCosker, Michelle Fairbairn, Mark Bott, Nisha Dutta, Martin Stevenson, Hannah Denson, Richard Yan, Sean Parry, Simon Lang, David Li, Cindy Tao, Pippa Kuhnel, Costa Georgeson, Iyanoosh Reporter, Andrew Hartley, Scott Wu, Owen Hutchison, Elliot Lavers, Martin O’Connor and Luke McKenzie. The authors of this paper would also like to acknowledge valuable comments on draft papers from Robert Breunig, Gabriela D’Souza, the Department of Home Affairs, Commonwealth Grants Commission, Productivity Commission and Grattan Institute. 2 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of The Treasury or the Australian Government. © Commonwealth of Australia 2021 ISBN 978-1-925832-39-6 This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, the Treasury logo, photographs, images, signatures and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.)[.](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.) Use of Treasury material under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 3.0 Australia licence requires you to attribute the work (but not in any way that suggests that the Treasury endorses you or your use of the work) . Treasury material used 'as supplied' Provided you have not modified or transformed Treasury material in any way including, for example, by changing the Treasury text; calculating percentage changes; graphing or charting data ; or deriving new statistics from published Treasury statistics—then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Source: The Australian Government the Treasury Derivative material If you have modified or transformed Treasury material, or derived new material from those of the Treasury in any way, then Treasury prefers the following attribution: Based on The Australian Government the Treasury data Use of the Coat of Arms The terms under which the Coat of Arms can be used are set out on the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet website ([see](see www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth-coat-arms)[ ](see www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth-coat-arms)[www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth-coat-arms](see www.pmc.gov.au/government/commonwealth-coat-arms)). Other uses Enquiries regarding this licence and any other use of this document are welcome at: Manager Media Unit The Treasury Langton Crescent Parkes ACT 2600 [Email: ](Email: medialiaison@treasury.gov.au)[ medialiaison@treasury.gov.au](Email: medialiaison@treasury.gov.au) Use of administrative migration data in this paper Results in this paper are based, in part, on migration data supplied by Home Affairs to the ABS under the Australian Border Force Act 2015, which requires that suchdata is only used for the purposesof the Census and Statistics Act 1905 or performance offunctionsof the ABS as set out in section6 of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Act 1975 . Any discussion ofdata limitationsor weaknesses is in the context of using the datafor statistical purposes, and not related to the ability of the data to support Home Affairs’ core operational requirements. Legislative requirements ensure privacy andsecrecy of these data are followed. For accessto MADIP dat

FAQs

What does the FIONA model estimate for permanent migrants?

It estimates the fiscal impact of permanent migrants over their remaining lifetimes in Australia, including tax revenues and government expenses attributable to migrants.

Why does the model use a lifetime perspective?

Because migration can produce net fiscal benefits while migrants are of working age and net fiscal costs after retirement, so lifetime effects are needed for a fair overall view.

How does the paper compare migrant outcomes to other Australians?

It estimates the lifetime value of taxes paid and the costs of services received by the general Australian population, enabling comparison to the permanent migrant cohort.

Sep 18, 2026

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