The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment - Policy Analysis

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Fahsai

Three-quarters of a century after Milton Friedman popularized universal school vouchers, such policies became reality in 17 U.S. states beginning in 2021. This paper characterizes the private school sector nationally and estimates short-run effects on private school enrollment and tuition. Difference-in-differences compares 11 adopting states (2021–2024) with non-universal voucher states, finding enrollment rises 3–4% on average and tuition likely increases 5–10%, with effects concentrated in low-baseline and non-Catholic religious contexts. The analysis also considers how COVID complicates interpretation and explains why impacts remain small so far.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages100

Reading Time4 h 12 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Acknowledgments

Author Information

I. Introduction

Program on Education Policy and Governance Conference Papers Series The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment Douglas N. Harris, and Gabriel Olivier 1 PEPG 25-17 This paper was presented at the School Choice Tradeoffs and Evidence-Based Policy Making conference held at the Harvard Kennedy School, May 8-9, 2025 Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street, Taubman 220 Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-7976 Fax: 617-496-4428 [www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/](www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg/) 1 Harris: Tulane University; Olivier: Tulane University The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis Douglas N. Harris and Gabriel Olivier September 12, 2025 Abstract: Three-quarters of a century after Milton Friedman popularized the idea, universal school vouchers have suddenly become a reality in 17 states since 2021. These new policies promise to be one of the most far-reaching reforms in U.S. education history. We make two contributions to understanding this policy. First, we provide a rich description of the private school sector nationally. We show that private schools vary widely and are much smaller and cheaper than is typically understood. Second, we study the policy’s short-term effects on student enrollment and tuition using difference-in-differences analysis comparing the 11 states that adopted universal vouchers between 2021 and 2024 to non-universal voucher states. We find that universal vouchers have started to reshape the schooling market. Private school enrollment has increased by 3-4 percent relative to non-voucher states on average, mainly in schools with low baseline enrollments and non-Catholic religious schools. Vouchers have also likely increased private school tuition by 5-10 percent, primarily in non-religious schools and those that had lowenrollment/low-tuition at baseline. We also discuss the effects ofCOVID on enrollment and tuition, which complicates the analysis and interpretation of the voucher effects. Finally, we explain why the effects have been small so far and why they are likely to grow as schools and families adjust to the new policy reality. Acknowledgments: For valuable comments, we thank participants in the 2024 annual meeting of the Association for Education Finance and Policy (AEFP), in the 2024 annual meeting of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management (APPAM), and at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. We also thank Sean Corcoran, Jennifer Jennings, Patrick McEwan, Matias Morales, and Paul Peterson for their careful reviews of this work and the staff of the National Center for Research on Education Access and Choice (REACH) . Author Information: Douglas N. Harris is Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at Tulane University, the Schlieder Foundation Chair in Public Education, and the founding director of the Murphy Institute’s Education Policy Program and the REACH center ([dharri5@tulane.edu](dharri5@tulane.edu)). Gabriel Olivier is a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at Tulane University ([golivier1@tulane.edu](golivier1@tulane.edu)). I. Introduction School vouchers have been the subject of small-scale experimentation in the U.S. for roughly a half-century. First popularized by Milton Friedman (1955), the idea involves using government revenue to fund education at essentially all schools that families choose, including religious and other private schools, with minimal regulations. While there is a vast literature on these prior voucher programs (Epple, Romano, & Urquiola, 2017; Shakeel et al., 2021), early U.S. programs were small in scale and often targeted to specific subgroups, e.g., students living in particular cities, low-income students, and students with disabilities. Since 2021, however, 17 Republican-leaning states have, for the first time, adopted universal school vouchers in line with Friedman’s original vision. How has the

FAQs

What is the paper’s main focus regarding universal school vouchers?

The paper examines how universal school vouchers affect private school tuition and enrollment, and it also describes key characteristics of the private school sector nationally.

How does the paper estimate the effects of vouchers?

It uses a difference-in-differences framework comparing 11 states that adopted universal vouchers between 2021 and 2024 with 34 non-universal voucher states, using approaches suited to staggered policy timing.

What short-term changes does the paper find in enrollment and tuition?

Universal vouchers are associated with a 3–4% increase in private school enrollment relative to non-voucher states and an estimated 5–10% increase in private school tuition, with effects appearing stronger in certain school types.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Fahsai