The Art of Thinking Clearly - 1 - Introduction - why you should visit cemeteries survivorship bias

Sep 30, 2026

A structured overview of cognitive biases and mental shortcuts that distort judgment, decision-making, and perception. The work inventories familiar errors—such as survivorship bias, social proof, confirmation bias, authority bias, availability bias, and loss aversion—then explains the psychological mechanisms behind each. It also covers practical antidotes through clearer thinking habits, helping readers recognize when intuitions mislead and how to correct for systematic thinking traps.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryLiterature

FormatPDF

Pages225

Reading Time5 h 47 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias

2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion

3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion

4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof

5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy

6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity

For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli [www.sceptrebooks.co.uk](www.sceptrebooks.co.uk) First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & St oughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli t o be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright , Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system , or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & St oughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH [www.sceptrebooks.co. uk](www.sceptrebooks.co. uk) CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH , IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON ’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE ’ : Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON ’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO MAP AT ALL: Availability Bias 12 WHY ‘ NO PAIN , NO GAIN ’ SHOULD SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: The It’ llGet-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy 13 EVEN TRUE STORIES ARE FAIRYTALES: Story Bias 14 WHY YOU SHOULD KEEP A DIARY: Hindsight Bias 15 WHY YOU SYSTEMATICALLY OVERESTIMATE YOUR KNOWLEDGE AND ABILITIES: Overconfidence Effect 16 DON ’T TAKE NEWS ANCHORS SERIOUSLY: Chauffeur Knowledge 17 YOU CONTROL LESS THAN YOU THINK: Illusion of Control 18 NEVER PAY YOUR LAWYER BY THE HOUR: Incentive Super-Response Tendency 19 THE DUBIOUS EFFICACY OF DOCTORS , CONSULTANTS AND PSYCHOTHERAPISTS: Regression to Mean 20 NEVER JUDGE A DECISION BY ITS OUTCOME: Outcome Bias 21 LESS IS MORE: The Paradox of Choice 22 YOU LIKE ME , YOU REALLY REALLY LIKE ME: Liking Bias 23 DON ’T CLING TO THINGS: Endowment Effect 24 THE INEVITABILITY OF UNLIKELY Events: Coincidence 25 THE CALAMITY OF CONFORMITY: Groupthink 26 WHY YOU ’ LL SOON BE PLAYING MEGATRILLIONS: Neglect of Probability 27 WHY THE LAST COOKIE IN THE JAR MAKES YOUR MOUTH WATER: Scarcity Error 28 WHEN YOU HEAR HOOFBEATS , DON ’T EXPECT A ZEBRA: Base-Rate Neglect 29 WHY THE ‘ BALANCING FORCE OF THE UNIVERSE ’ IS BALONEY: Gambler’s Fallacy 30 WHY THE WHEEL OF FORTUNE MAKES OUR HEADS SPIN: The Anchor 31 HOW TO RELIEVE PEOPLE OF THEIR MILLIONS: Induction 32 WHY EVIL STRIKES HARDER THAN GOOD: Loss Aversion 33 WHY TEAMS ARE LAZY: Social Loafing 34 STUMPED BY A SHEET OF PAPER: Exponential Growth 35 CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM: Winner’s Curse 36 NEVER ASK A WRITER IF THE NOVEL IS AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL: Fundamental Attribution Error 37 WHY YOU SHOULDN ’T BELIEVE IN THE STORK: False Causality 38 EVERYONE IS BEAUTIFUL AT THE TOP: Halo Effect 39 CONGRATULATIONS! YOU ’VE WON RUSSIAN ROULETTE: Alternative Paths 40 FALSE PROPHETS: Forecast Illusion 41 THE DECEPTION OF SPECIFIC CASES: Conjunction Fallacy 42 IT ’S NOT WHAT YOU SAY , BUT HOW YOU SAY IT: Framing 43 WHY WATCHING AND WAITING IS TORTURE: Action Bias 44 WHY YOU ARE EITHER THE SOLUTION – OR THE PROBLEM: Omission Bias 45 DON ’T BLAME ME: Self-Serving Bias 46 BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR: Hedonic Treadmill 47 DO NOT MARVEL AT YOUR EXISTENCE: Self-Selection Bias 48 WHY EXPERIENCE CAN DAMAGE OUR JUDGEMENT: Association Bias 49 BE WARY WHEN THING

FAQs

What is the main purpose of the book?

The book explains how common cognitive biases distort thinking, judgment, and decisions, and how to recognize them to think more clearly.

Which bias is used to illustrate why large numbers of people don’t guarantee correctness?

Social proof is highlighted through the idea that if many people say something foolish, it remains foolish.

What example is used to explain how people misjudge past investments?

The sunk cost fallacy explains why people should not keep committing resources simply because of what they have already invested.

Sep 30, 2026

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