Test-Taker Perspectives on English Proficiency Test Predictive Validity - Master’s Thesis

Aug 29, 2026

This study evaluates the predictive validity of English proficiency tests—TOEFL, IELTS, and the Duolingo English Test (DET)—for determining the academic success of international students. Building on established research for TOEFL and IELTS, the study investigates the growing digital-first DET option and its influence on test-taker confidence. Using a mixed-methods design, it combines quantitative findings about score–GPA relationships with original qualitative data from an anonymous survey and interviews with University of Minnesota students.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages87

Reading Time3 h 39 min

AccessFree to download

Acknowledgements

Abstract

Table of Contents

List of Tables

Test-Taker Perspectives on Proficiency Test Predictive Validity

Literature Review

Methodology

Discussion & Conclusion

1 Test-Taker Perspectives on English Proficiency Test Predictive Validity Samuel J. Miller A Master’s Thesis Submitted to the Department of Curriculum and Instruction, College of Education and Human Development, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities Advisor: Samuel S. David May 2026 2 Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank all those who helped support this research, which was started in September 2025 and completed in May 2026. Special thanks go to Samuel S. David, the author’s academic advisor, for his direction throughout the project, including the initial topic, ideas, the time, the IRB process, the survey and interview format, editing of the thesis and questioning of the content for revision, and final review of the paper. In addition, the author thanks the University of Minnesota Department of Curriculum and Instruction Graduate Program Coordinator for his support in finding students in the department and connections to campus departments and organizations to assist in the dissemination of the test-taker survey. Thank you also to each of the test-takers for completing the survey and being willing to share their perceptions of the proficiency tests, as well as the two interviewees for enthusiastically sharing their testing experiences. All these contributions made this project and paper possible. Finally, the author wishes to thank the Lord Jesus Christ for giving him the strength and endurance to complete this project and do it to the best of his ability. 3 Abstract This study evaluates the predictive validity of English proficiency tests—specifically the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) , the International English Language Testing System ( IELTS) and the Duolingo English Test ( DET)—in determining the academic success of international students. While traditional assessments like TOEFL and IELTS are well-established, the rapid rise of digital-first alternatives like the DET necessitates further investigation into their effectiveness and impact on test-taker confidence. Through a mixed-methods approach, this study reviews existing quantitative research on test score correlations with Grade Point Average (GPA) and introduces original qualitative data from an anonymous survey and interviews with students at the University of Minnesota. The findings indicate that while higher proficiency scores generally relate to increased language confidence and belief in test accuracy, individual experiences vary significantly. Qualitative case studies reveal that high test scores do not always equate to immediate classroom readiness, highlighting a potential gap between test performance and real-world academic demands. Ultimately, the research suggests that while the DET is a legitimate alternative of predictive validity to traditional tests, stakeholders should consider test-taker perceptions and holistic preparation factors rather than relying solely on proficiency scores for admission decisions. 4 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 2 Abstract 3 Table of Contents 4 List of Tables 6 Test-Taker Perspectives on Proficiency Test Predictive Validity 7 Literature Review 9 History of Modern Language Testing 9 TOEFL History 11 TOEFL Structure 13 IELTS History 15 IELTS Structure 17 DET History 18 DET Structure 19 Comparing TOEFL, IELTS and DET 20 TOEFL, IELTS, and DET Growth Comparison 21 Purpose of Proficiency Tests 26 Validity in Proficiency Testing 29 Predictive Validity of TOEFL 30 Predictive Validity of IELTS 32 Predictive Validity of DET 34 Methodology 37 Study Research Questions 38 Research Design 38 Study Procedure 39 Data Preparation 41 Results 43 Confidence and Test Scores 43 Accuracy and Test Scores 49 Discussion & Conclusion 61 Limitations 68 References 71 Appendix A 84 English Proficiency Test Survey 84 Appendix B 86 Interview Questions 86 Appendix C 87 Data Point Combinations for Analysis 87 5 6 List

FAQs

Which English proficiency tests does the thesis evaluate for predictive validity?

The thesis evaluates TOEFL, IELTS, and the Duolingo English Test (DET) in relation to students’ academic success.

How does the thesis study predictive validity?

It uses a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative research on correlations between test scores and GPA with qualitative data from an anonymous survey and student interviews at the University of Minnesota.

What do the qualitative findings suggest about test scores and classroom readiness?

The findings indicate that higher test scores do not always translate into immediate classroom readiness, suggesting a gap between test performance and real-world academic demands.

Aug 29, 2026

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