Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate - A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986-2015

Q: What do minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) represent?

They indicate population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures by describing the ambient temperature associated with minimum mortality and its percentile definition.

Q: How was the study designed to assess temporal changes?

It used two-stage analysis: quasi-Poisson regression to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community across subperiods, followed by mixed-effects meta-regressions to pool temporally varying estimates.

Q: What were the main findings on temporal changes and their geographic pattern?

MMT and MMTP increased overall, but temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions, with different directions by region.

Sep 15, 2026

Uploaded by Ezra

Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) quantify population susceptibility to nonoptimal ambient temperatures, yet their temporal trajectories may differ across settings. This multicountry, multicommunity observational study analyzes time-series mortality and mean temperature data from 699 communities in 34 countries during 1986–2015. Two-stage modeling estimates community-specific MMT and MMTP over subperiods, then pools temporally varying effects via mixed-effects meta-regressions overall and by climate zone, region, and country.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages10

Reading Time25 min

AccessFree to download

Background

Methods

Statistical analysis approach

Results

Conclusions

Keywords

Downloaded from [http://journals.lww.com/environepidem by BhDMf5ePHKav1zEoum1tQfN4a](http://journals.lww.com/environepidem by BhDMf5ePHKav1zEoum1tQfN4a)+kJLhEZgbsIHo4XMi0 hCywCX 1AWnYQp/ I l Qr HD3i 3 D0OdRyi 7TvS Fl4Cf3VC4/OAVpDDa8KKGKV0Ymy+78= on 11/04/2024 Original Research Article ISEE ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015 Daewon Yanga , Masahiro Hashizumeb,c , Aurelio Tobíasc,d , Yasushi Hondae , Dominic Royef,g , Jaemin Ohh , Tran Ngoc Dangi , Yoonhee Kimj , Rosana Abrutzkyk , Yuming Guol,m , Shilu Tongn,o,p,q , Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelhor , Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldivas , Eric Lavignet,u , Patricia Matus Correav , Nicolás Valdés Ortegav , Samuel Osoriow , Jan Kyselýx,y , Aleš Urbanx,y , Hans Orruz , Ene Indermittez , Jouni Jaakkolaaa,bb , Niilo Rytiaa,bb , Mathilde Pascalcc , Veronika Huberdd,ee , Alexandra Schneideree , Klea Katsouyanniff,gg , Antonis Analitisff , Alireza Entezarihh , Fatemeh Mayvanehhh , Patrick Goodmanii , Ariana Zekajj , Paola Michelozzikk , Francesca de’Donatokk , Barrak Alahmadll , Magali Hurtado Diazmm , César De la Cruz Valenciamm , Ala Overcenconn , Danny Houthuijsoo , Caroline Amelingoo , Shilpa Raopp , Baltazar Nunesqq,rr , Joana Madureirass,tt,uu , Iulian Horia Holo-bâcvv , Noah Scovronickww , Fiorella Acquaottaxx , Ho Kimyy , Whanhee Leezz , Carmen Íñiguezaaa,bbb , Bertil Forsbergccc , Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabreraddd,eee , Martina S. Ragettlifff,ggg , Yue-Liang Leon Guohhh,iii,jjj , Shih Chun Panjjj , Shanshan Lil,m , Francesco Serakkk , Antonella Zanobettill , Joel Schwartzll , Ben Armstronglll , Antonio Gasparrinilll , Yeonseung Chungh,* | Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986– | | --- | | Daily
2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country.
Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17 .9, 21. 1) to 20.3 °C (18 .5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68 .3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71 .0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0 .001) . Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0 .02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0 .46, P = 0 .05) . MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3 .45, P = 0 .02) and South Europe (LS = −2 .86, P = 0 .05) . Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations. | | Keywords: Minimum mortality temperature; Climate change; Human adaptation; Temporal change; Heterogeneity | aDepartment of Information and Statistics, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, South Korea; bDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; cSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; dInstitute of Environmental As

FAQs

What do minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) represent?

They indicate population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures by describing the ambient temperature associated with minimum mortality and its percentile definition.

How was the study designed to assess temporal changes?

It used two-stage analysis: quasi-Poisson regression to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community across subperiods, followed by mixed-effects meta-regressions to pool temporally varying estimates.

What were the main findings on temporal changes and their geographic pattern?

MMT and MMTP increased overall, but temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions, with different directions by region.

Sep 15, 2026

Uploaded by Ezra