Tajikistan CPF - Results Framework - Four Outcomes Measured by Eleven WBG Scorecard Indicators

Jul 19, 2026

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Tajikistan CPF presents a results framework linking development constraints to measurable outcomes using eleven WBG scorecard indicators. It focuses on four outcomes: expanding access to secure, affordable, and clean energy through Rogun HPP, grid upgrades, and governance reforms; and improving human capital via better education, skills-aligned TVET, health, nutrition, WASH, and gender-responsive programs. Each outcome includes intervention logic, WBG investment and advisory pipelines, and baseline-to-target results timelines.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages29

Reading Time1 h 13 min

Tajikistan CPF – Results Framework

Outcome 1: Increased Access to Secure, Affordable, and Clean Energy

Outcome 2: Better Skilled and Healthy Workforce

Pub lic Disc losure Authorized I. TAJIKISTAN CPF – Results Framework Tajikistan CPF: Four Outcomes Measured by Eleven WBG Scorecard Indicators | Outcome 1: Increased Access to Secure, Affordable, and Clean Energy | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rationale: Access to reliable, affordable, and clean energy is the most critical binding constraint on Tajikistan's development. Despite significant hydropower potential, most households and businesses lack reliable electricity supply, with severe seasonal shortages. The Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) will generate up to 3.6 GW upon completion (with 1.66 GW as an intermediate milestone) of clean energy capacity and wider economy-wide job gains through reliable power. Combined with power sector governance reforms, SOE financial sustainability, and cost-reflective tariff policies with targeted compensation, Outcome 1 provides the foundational infrastructure for job creation and private investment across the entire CPF. | | | | | | Scorecard Indicators | Intervention Logic | Business Plan | | Results/Targets | | | | Ongoing Portfolio- investments, knowledge and advisory | Pipeline- investments, guarantees, knowledge and advisory (next 18–24 months) | | | 1.1 People provided with access to electricity | WBG investments in the Rogun HPP, rural electrification, and grid upgrades directly expand electricity access. Governance reforms and cost-reflective tariffs with targeted compensation ensure the financial sustainability of utilities, enabling continued service delivery expansion to unserved and underserved populations. | IDA Investments: • Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP • Rural Electrification • Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation • Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Phase 2; Program for Recovery of Electricity Sector PforR • REMIT (Regional Electricity Market Interconnectivity and Trade) WBG Knowledge and Advisory: • Energy Sector Strategic Engagement • Fostering Transparency in Tajikistan Extractive Sector | IDA Investments: • Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP 2 phase (US$300 million) IFC: • Solar and Wind Renewable Energy IPP investments MIGA: • Guarantee Platform support for PPPs in energy WBG Knowledge and Advisory: • IFC Advisory and Upstream on solar and wind IPPs | Baseline (FY26): 23,300 Target (FY32): 9,800,000 | | 1.2 GW of renewable energy capacity enabled | Rogun HPP (1 .66 GW upon completion) as flagship investment, complemented by IFC-financed solar and wind IPPs, and grid modernization to enable electricity exports, compound renewable capacity gains. Power sector reforms create an enabling environment for private participation in energy generation. | IDA Investments: • Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP • Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation (phases 1 and 2) • Rural Electrification WBG Knowledge and Advisory: •Energy Sector Strategic Engagement •Central Asia Climate and Environment (CLIENT) Program | IDA Investments: • Sustainable Financing for Rogun HPP 2 phase (US$300 million) IFC: Renewable energy (Solar, Wind) MIGA: Guarantees for energy PPPs WBG Knowledge and Advisory: • IFC Advisory on IPPs | Baseline (FY26): 0.75 GW Target (FY32): 5 GW | | Outcome 2: Better Skilled and Healthy Workforce | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rationale: Tajikistan's human capital deficit is a critical constraint on its growth and economic diversification. The country ranks among the lower performers in the region on learning outcomes, has a weak TVET system misaligned with labor market demand, and faces significant gaps in health, nutrition, and water/sanitation access. Female labor force participation is low (about 30 percent), held down by social norms, GBV, limited childcare, and poor WASH infrastructure. This outcome consolidates education, TVET, health, nutrition, WASH, and gender interventions under a single human capital outcome, reflecting the CPF’s emphasis on

FAQs

What are the main purposes of the Tajikistan CPF results framework?

The framework translates key development constraints into four measurable outcomes, using eleven WBG scorecard indicators. It links interventions across energy and human capital to expected results over the CPF period.

How does Outcome 1 improve access to secure, affordable, and clean energy?

Outcome 1 relies on flagship investments such as the Rogun Hydropower Plant, rural electrification, and grid upgrades. Power sector governance reforms, SOE financial sustainability, and cost-reflective tariffs with targeted compensation are included to sustain service delivery.

What does Outcome 2 cover under the human capital agenda?

Outcome 2 consolidates education, TVET, health, nutrition, WASH, and gender interventions. It targets improved foundational learning, skills training aligned with labor market needs, and better health and nutrition services for vulnerable groups.

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Finn