Sudan: Negotiating Southern Independence - High Stakes in the Talks on Post-referendum Arrangements

Sep 4, 2026

Uploaded by Liam

The paper examines negotiations in Sudan leading up to the January 9, 2011 referendum on southern independence and focuses on the arrangements planned for the post-referendum period. It highlights how attention on referendum logistics and political acceptance could overshadow behind-the-scenes talks between the NCP and SPLM. It argues that credible deals—supported by existing interdependencies or external measures such as conditional debt relief and UN security monitoring—can reduce the risk of violent conflict while sustaining stable north-south economic relations.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time18 min

AccessFree to download

Sudan: Negotiating Southern Independence

High Stakes in the Talks on Post-referendum Arrangements

Behind the Scenes

North-south Negotiations

Sudan: Negotiating Southern Independence High Stakes in the Talks on Post-referendum Arrangements Wolfram Lacher In Sudan, all eyes are currently on the preparations for the referendum on southern independence, scheduled for 9 January 2011. The southern government and international actors are expecting a clear vote for independence. Most attention is currently focussed on disputes between the central and southern governments over the referendum itself. Meanwhile, negotiations are taking place behind the scenes on arrangements for the post-referendum era. These negotiations will have a decisive impact on the risk of violent conflict associated with southern secession. Deals could be based on existing interdependencies between the two sides, with external actors backing up such arrangements. Where there are no such interdependencies, external assistance can support compromises between the two sides. Possible instruments include conditional debt relief and a UN mission to monitor security arrangements. Regardless of the referendum’s outcome, economic interdependencies provide opportunities for stable northsouth relations. German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Com The ruling parties in northern and southern Sudan – Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)– as well as international actors in Sudan currently are almost exclusively focussed on the referendum on southern independence, which is due to conclude the transitional period set out by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) . The situation is dire; over the past months, SPLM and NCP leaders have waged a war of words and exchanged accusations, while time is running out for the logistical and administrative prepara- tions for the referendum. Concerns are growing over whether (and under which conditions) the referendum will take place in January, and whether the NCPcontrolled central government will accept its result. The risk of a war of secession would grow significantly if Khartoum attempted seriously to delay or block the vote, or reject its result. The NCP leadership is aware of this, despite the fact that it is undeniably resorting to delaying tactics. Despite all delays to the referendum timetable, the SPLM and external actors remain committed to the January date. The United States, in particular, has in recent weeks vehemently insisted that the referendum be held as planned and in a transparent manner, and warned of the risk of renewed north-south conflict. Behind the scenes It is not surprising that the national and international actors are focussing on the difficult preparations for the referendum. Nevertheless, the almost exclusive focus on the January vote threatens to divert attention away from the negotiations underway between the NCP and SPLM on post-referendum arrangements. Whether the parties are able to progress and strike viable deals in these negotiations is of crucial importance for the referendum and the associated potential for conflict. While doubts had long persisted concerning the NCP’s willingness to accept southern secession at all, this is not the case anymore: in the five years during which the south has been controlled by a government that has gradually curbed the influence of the central government, and in many respects has already been acting as a sovereign actor, the NCP has gradually resigned itself to the idea of southern secession. Among other things, this assessment is supported by the fact that Khartoum, though begrudgingly and slowly, eventually implemented the key aspects of the CPA and allowed the agreement to reach its decisive phase, the referendum. For the central government, the costs of preventing secession by force would be prohibitive, such as in the form of deepening international isolation and the emergence of a second front, in addition to Darfur (where the situation would likely deteriorate as a corollary of renewed conflict

FAQs

What referendum date is discussed for southern independence in Sudan?

The document states the referendum on southern independence is scheduled for 9 January 2011.

Why are post-referendum arrangements considered decisive?

The paper argues that negotiations on post-referendum arrangements strongly affect the risk of violent conflict linked to southern secession and the future stability of north-south relations.

How did north-south negotiations progress and who is involved?

Negotiations began in July and have taken place behind closed doors between the NCP and SPLM, with limited use so far of options such as AUHIP mediation or external consultants.

Sep 4, 2026

Uploaded by Liam