Starting Strong: A Research Series on the Transition to High School - On Track Across Four Cohorts, Ninth Grade On-Track Patterns in the School District of Philadelphia, 2013-2017

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel

An addendum to the May 2018 report Getting on Track to Graduation, this brief examines whether ninth-grade on-track patterns persisted over time across four cohorts of first-time students in Philadelphia. It analyzes course-credit attainment under the 2018 Ninth Grade On-Track Definition and evaluates differences in on-track rates and off-track requirement gaps. Results show about 65–68% on track across cohorts, with the Class of 2020 highest and off-track students more often “almost on-track,” especially regarding the science credit.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages20

Reading Time50 min

AccessFree to download

Why this study

The study found

On-track rates across cohorts

Off-track student requirement categories

Changes in science and math credits

October 2018 STARTING STRONG: A RESEARCH SERIES ON THE TRANSITION TO HIGH SCHOOL ON TRACK ACROSS FOUR COHORTS: Ninth Grade On-Track Patterns in the School District of Philadelphia, 2013-2017 Molly Pileggi, Kendra Strouf Why this study This brief is an addendum to an earlier report, Getting on Track to Graduation, published in May 2018 by the Philadelphia Education Research Consortium (Crofton and Neild, 2018) . Focusing on two cohorts of first-time ninth grade students (the Classes of 2019 and 2020), Getting on Track to Graduation examined the extent to which students earned the number and type of course credits required to be considered on-track to graduation. This brief extends analyses from the earlier report with data from two additional cohorts of first-time freshmen (the Classes of 2017 and 2018) to better understand whether the patterns described in the original report have been consistent over time. The ninth grade is a critical year for students. In 2018, the School District of Philadelphia (SDP) established a new Ninth Grade On-Track Definition. This metric defines which course credits a student must have earned by the end of the first year of high school to be considered on track to graduation (Box 1) . Philadelphia students who are on track at the end of ninth grade according to this definition are approximately twice as likely to graduate within four years as those who are off track at the end of ninth grade (Wills, 2018) . Box 1: SDP’s Ninth Grade On-Track Definition To be considered on-track at the end of ninth grade, a student must earn at least: • One course credit in each of the four core subjects (English, math, social studies, and science), and • One additional course credit in any subject. Because Getting on Track to Graduation found an increase in on-track rates between the Class of 2019 and Class of 2020, readers wanted to know whether the increase was different from the small year-to-year fluctuations common for education outcomes. This brief addresses that question with data from two additional cohorts of first-time freshmen (the Classes of 2017 and 2018) . Readers can find details of the data and variables used for this analysis in Appendix A and more detailed findings on the Classes of 2019 and 2020 in the original Getting on Track to Graduation report. October 2018 Philadelphia Education Research Consortium It is important for education agencies and the communities they serve to have access to analyses of trendlines in key education outcomes. For this reason, PERC hopes to update analyses of the ontrack rate regularly through briefs like this one. Readers can also see three years of ninth grade ontrack rates for individual schools on the SDP dashboard. To do this, navigate to [https://dashboards.philasd.org/extensions/philadelphia/index.html](https://dashboards.philasd.org/extensions/philadelphia/index.html), choose a high school, and select “College/Career” from the menu at the top of the page. What the study found Approximately 66 percent of first-time ninth graders were on track across all four cohorts of students, but on-track rates were highest in the most recent cohort (the Class of 2020) . Across all four years studied, 65 to 68 percent of first-time ninth graders were on track to graduate at the end of their first year of high school (Figure 1) . Members of the Class of 2020, who were ninth graders in 2016-17, had the highest on-track rate compared to the three other cohorts. It will be important to look at subsequent cohorts of data to determine whether the three percentage point increase between the Class of 2019 and the Class of 2020 is the start of an upward trend or a largerthan-typical fluctuation of the type seen each year. Figure 1. Percentage of First-time Ninth Graders On Track, by Cohort Percentage of Students On Track 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Class of 2017 Class of 2018 Class of 2019 Class of 2

FAQs

What is the study’s purpose in relation to Getting on Track to Graduation?

It extends the earlier analyses with data from additional cohorts to test whether ninth-grade on-track patterns were consistent over time.

How is a student defined as on track for graduation at the end of ninth grade?

Under the 2018 definition, students must earn at least one credit in each of four core subjects and one additional credit in any subject.

What major trend did the study find across the four cohorts?

On-track rates stayed relatively stable (65–68%), with the most recent cohort (Class of 2020) showing the highest on-track level and off-track students more frequently missing only one requirement.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Angel