Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges - Working Paper 33570 - Research findings on standardized testing

Sep 15, 2026

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students across multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study how standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades relate. Standardized scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope about four times larger than high school GPA, conditional on race, gender, and socioeconomic status. The results indicate no calibration bias, with standardized scores not systematically underpredict performance for less advantaged students. Overall, standardized test scores add information about applicants’ academic preparation beyond other application file components.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages24

Reading Time1 h 0 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Research question and context

Data and variables

Main predictive relationship

Calibration and subgroup considerations

Implications for admissions policy

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES STANDARDIZED TEST SCORES AND ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE AT IVY-PLUS COLLEGES John N. Friedman Bruce Sacerdote Douglas O. Staiger Michele Tine Working Paper 33570 [http://www.nber.org/papers/w33570](http://www.nber.org/papers/w33570) NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2025 We thank Sian Beilock, Zachary Bleemer, Liz Cascio, Raj Chetty, Nathan Hendren, David Leonhardt, Adam Looney, and Andrei Shleifer, and numerous seminar participants for helpful comments. This paper incorporates input from the work of Cascio et al. (2024) . We are indebted to Hamidah Alatas and Arjun Shanmugam for their outstanding research assistance. This research was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative, the JPB Foundation, and the Overdeck Family Foundation. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed additional relationships of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at [http://www.nber.org/papers/w33570](http://www.nber.org/papers/w33570) NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2025 by John N. Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas O. Staiger, and Michele Tine. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges John N. Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas O. Staiger, and Michele Tine NBER Working Paper No. 33570 March 2025 JEL No. I20, I23, I24 ABSTRACT We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores also exhibit no calibration bias, as they do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. John N. Friedman Department of Economics Robinson Hall Brown University Providence, RI 02912 and NBER [john_friedman@brown.edu](john_friedman@brown.edu) Bruce Sacerdote Department of Economics Dartmouth College 6106 Rockefeller Hall Hanover, NH 03755-3514 and NBER [Bruce.I.Sacerdote@dartmouth.edu](Bruce.I.Sacerdote@dartmouth.edu) Douglas O. Staiger Department of Economics Dartmouth College HB6106, 301 Rockefeller Hall Hanover, NH 03755-3514 and NBER [douglas.staiger@dartmouth.edu](douglas.staiger@dartmouth.edu) Michele Tine Department of Sociology Dartmouth College 6104 Blunt Hall Hanover, NH 03755 [michele.t.tine@dartmouth.edu](michele.t.tine@dartmouth.edu) Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges By John N. Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas O. Staiger, and Michele Tine∗ Draft: March 14, 2025 We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from highschool GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores also exhib

FAQs

How do standardized test scores relate to first-year college grades at Ivy-Plus colleges?

Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes more strongly than high school GPA in the analysis, with a normalized slope about four times greater, conditional on student demographics.

Do standardized test scores show calibration bias for students from less advantaged backgrounds?

The paper reports no calibration bias, stating that standardized scores do not systematically underpredict college performance for less advantaged students.

What does the paper suggest about the role of standardized tests in selective admissions?

The findings suggest standardized test scores provide important information about applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file.

Sep 15, 2026

Uploaded by Clementine